{"id":842,"date":"2012-11-02T11:47:12","date_gmt":"2012-11-02T16:47:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/?p=842"},"modified":"2013-02-14T08:53:14","modified_gmt":"2013-02-14T14:53:14","slug":"underrated-and-overrated-via-rapm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/2012\/nba-stats\/underrated-and-overrated-via-rapm\/","title":{"rendered":"Underrated and Overrated Via RAPM"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In several of my recent articles, I have been using Jeremias Engelmann&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com\/PBP\/2012np.html\" class=\"broken_link\">12 year average RAPM dataset<\/a>. Here, I will look at what players may have been underrated or overrated by even advanced stats over the course of the last 12 years.<\/p>\n<p>I decided to use PER and WS\/48 as my advanced stats to compare to, and I am limiting this to players with a very large sample size (though the user can adjust the threshold below). I&#8217;m using 20,000 possessions as the lower limit. At that level, RAPM should be very accurate in quantifying actual value to the team in points per 100 possessions.<br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/javascripts\/api\/viz_v1.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<div class=\"tableauPlaceholder\" style=\"width:579px; height:1469px;\"><noscript><a href=\"http:&#47;&#47;godismyjudgeok.com&#47;DStats&#47;2012&#47;nba-stats&#47;underrated-and-overrated-via-rapm&#47;\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"2001-2012 Overrated &amp; Underrated (Via RAPM) \" src=\"http:&#47;&#47;public.tableausoftware.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;20&#47;2001-2012OverratedviaRAPM&#47;Dashboard1&#47;1_rss.png\" style=\"border: none\" \/><\/a><\/noscript><object class=\"tableauViz\" width=\"579\" height=\"1469\" style=\"display:none;\"><param name=\"host_url\" value=\"http%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableausoftware.com%2F\" \/><param name=\"site_root\" value=\"\" \/><param name=\"name\" value=\"2001-2012OverratedviaRAPM&#47;Dashboard1\" \/><param name=\"tabs\" value=\"no\" \/><param name=\"toolbar\" value=\"yes\" \/><param name=\"static_image\" value=\"http:&#47;&#47;public.tableausoftware.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;20&#47;2001-2012OverratedviaRAPM&#47;Dashboard1&#47;1.png\" \/><param name=\"animate_transition\" value=\"yes\" \/><param name=\"display_static_image\" value=\"yes\" \/><param name=\"display_spinner\" value=\"yes\" \/><param name=\"display_overlay\" value=\"yes\" \/><param name=\"display_count\" value=\"yes\" \/><\/object><\/div>\n<div style=\"width:579px;height:22px;padding:0px 10px 0px 0px;color:black;font:normal 8pt verdana,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;\">\n<div style=\"float:right; padding-right:8px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tableausoftware.com\/public?ref=http:\/\/public.tableausoftware.com\/views\/2001-2012OverratedviaRAPM\/Dashboard1\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"broken_link\">Powered by Tableau<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Underrated<\/h2>\n<p>What do we see? Both PER and WS\/48 underrate a similar group of players: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/b\/bowenbr01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Bruce  Bowen<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/b\/battish01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Shane  Battier<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/d\/denglu01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Luol  Deng<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/w\/wallara01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Rasheed  Wallace<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/w\/wallabe01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Ben  Wallace<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/a\/artesro01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Metta  World  Peace<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/j\/jeffrja01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Jared  Jeffries<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/s\/sefolth01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Thabo  Sefolosha<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/d\/davisba01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Baron  Davis<\/a> (?), and of course <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/g\/garneke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Kevin  Garnett<\/a>. PER, as John Hollinger has said, does not attempt to quantify defense at all, so it makes sense that the underrated players for PER are the great defenders. WS\/48 in general correlates better with RAPM (R^2 of 0.47 compared to 0.35), but similarly has difficulty quantifying defense. In general, no box score stat can get very close to accurately measuring defense.<\/p>\n<p>WS\/48 doesn&#8217;t do as badly with the defenders. It does pretty well with good defenders who mostly add value through blocks, steals, and rebounding, such as <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/h\/hayesch01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Chuck  Hayes<\/a> or <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/v\/varejan01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Anderson  Varejao<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In general, most of the underrated players by both PER and WS\/48 are defensive big men (mostly) or the players you have heard of as great perimeter defenders (Deng, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/l\/lowryky01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Kyle  Lowry<\/a>, Conley, Battier)<\/p>\n<h2>Overrated<\/h2>\n<p>What about the overrated? Well, we know what PER overrates: scoring. Getting buckets. So we have great scorers with suspect defense, like <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/d\/duranke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Kevin  Durant<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/j\/jeffeal01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Al  Jefferson<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/l\/lopezbr01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Brook  Lopez<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/g\/goodedr01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Drew  Gooden<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/b\/bynuman01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Andrew  Bynum<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/m\/mcgeeja01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">JaVale  McGee<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/b\/boozeca01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Carlos  Boozer<\/a>, even <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/m\/malonka01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Karl  Malone<\/a>&#8230; Interestingly, most of the worst overrated offensive-minded big men. <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/r\/robingl01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Glenn  Robinson<\/a> and <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/m\/marbust01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Stephon  Marbury<\/a> are in there, also.<\/p>\n<p>WS\/48 overrates the same class of offensive big men, just not as badly. <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/l\/landrca01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Carl  Landry<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/g\/gortama01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Marcin  Gortat<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/m\/murphtr01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Troy  Murphy<\/a>, plus all of those mentioned by PER.<\/p>\n<p>What&#8217;s the takeaway?<\/p>\n<p>Box score stats miss defense. Defense matters more for big men; the variance for DRAPM seems to be greater for big men than for guards. In general, offensive\/scoring big men are overrated and defensive big men are underrated. It seems that guards are rated pretty well, in general, though lock-down guards and swingmen are also underrated.<\/p>\n<p>Kevin  Garnett and <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/d\/duncati01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Tim  Duncan<\/a> have been ridiculously good over the last 12 years. Put either of them on an otherwise average team and that team becomes a title contender, if not winner.<\/p>\n<p>Most underrated:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Kevin  Garnett<\/li>\n<li>Rasheed  Wallace<\/li>\n<li>Baron  Davis<\/li>\n<li>Luol  Deng<\/li>\n<li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/f\/fosteje01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Jeff  Foster<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Shane  Battier<\/li>\n<li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/c\/conlemi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Mike  Conley<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Metta  World  Peace<\/li>\n<li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/c\/collija04.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Jason  Collins<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Bruce  Bowen<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Most overrated:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Al  Jefferson<\/li>\n<li>Andrew  Bynum<\/li>\n<li>Troy  Murphy<\/li>\n<li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/w\/warriha01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Hakim  Warrick<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Carlos  Boozer<\/li>\n<li>Karl  Malone (End of Career)<\/li>\n<li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/m\/martike02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Kevin  Martin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Kevin  Durant<\/li>\n<li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/a\/abdursh01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">Shareef  Abdur-Rahim<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.basketball-reference.com\/players\/h\/hicksjj01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&#038;utm_source=direct&#038;utm_medium=linker-godismyjudgeok.com\">J.J.  Hickson<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>See Part 2 of this series at <a href=\"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/2012\/nba-stats\/overrated-and-underrated-via-rapm-part-2\/\">Overrated and Underrated via RAPM (Part 2)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In several of my recent articles, I have been using Jeremias Engelmann&#8217;s 12 year average RAPM dataset. Here, I will look at what players may have been underrated or overrated by even advanced stats over the course of the last 12 years. I decided to use PER and WS\/48 as my advanced stats to compare &#8230; <span class=\"more\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/2012\/nba-stats\/underrated-and-overrated-via-rapm\/\">[Read more&#8230;]<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[41,54,31,42,48,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/842"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=842"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/842\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":922,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/842\/revisions\/922"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}