{"id":534,"date":"2011-04-16T08:47:02","date_gmt":"2011-04-16T13:47:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/?p=534"},"modified":"2011-04-16T08:47:02","modified_gmt":"2011-04-16T13:47:02","slug":"tightened-rotations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/2011\/nba-stats\/tightened-rotations\/","title":{"rendered":"Tightened Rotations"},"content":{"rendered":"

After a ton of math and fudging, I’ve come up with these estimates for how much a “tightened rotation” will help each team in the playoffs. I took close games between playoff teams in the past 1.5 months, figured out the top rotation (MPG\/player) for each team when everyone’s healthy, and took the max of that and the average of all playoff teams’ average top rotation minutes split. Then, I compared that tight rotation with the average MPG for each player over the season. I truncated the list when each rotation reached 240 minutes total. Then, to see how much that helps each team, I used ASPM and RAPM for each player with that MPG and calculated the team sum both for the short rotation and for the idealized long rotation.<\/p>\n

Yeah, it’s a bit clunky, but it sorta makes sense.<\/p>\n

I still can’t get the Lakers to look dominant, though…<\/p>\n

I did it for every team above -1.25 Efficiency differential. I forgot that the Pacers were below that (!) so I guess I’ll use the average for them!<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Team<\/strong><\/th>\nTightened Benefit<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
HOU<\/strong><\/td>\n2.20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MEM<\/strong><\/td>\n1.80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PHO<\/strong><\/td>\n1.66<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NOH<\/strong><\/td>\n1.61<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SAS<\/strong><\/td>\n1.52<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PHI<\/strong><\/td>\n1.18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ORL<\/strong><\/td>\n1.14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DAL<\/strong><\/td>\n1.09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LAL<\/strong><\/td>\n0.92<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DEN<\/strong><\/td>\n0.88<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MIA<\/strong><\/td>\n0.80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BOS<\/strong><\/td>\n0.64<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ATL<\/strong><\/td>\n0.63<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OKC<\/strong><\/td>\n0.59<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NYK<\/strong><\/td>\n0.29<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
POR<\/strong><\/td>\n0.22<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CHI<\/strong><\/td>\n0.16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average<\/strong><\/td>\n1.02<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Yeah, it doesn’t help the really deep teams to tighten their rotations. Some of those numbers look a bit odd. I don’t have time at this point to check them, though!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After a ton of math and fudging, I’ve come up with these estimates for how much a “tightened rotation” will help each team in the playoffs. I took close games between playoff teams in the past 1.5 months, figured out the top rotation (MPG\/player) for each team when everyone’s healthy, and took the max of … [Read more…]<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[54,37,27,24],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/534"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=534"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/534\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":645,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/534\/revisions\/645"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}