{"id":217,"date":"2011-02-03T12:36:43","date_gmt":"2011-02-03T18:36:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/?p=217"},"modified":"2011-03-09T15:03:16","modified_gmt":"2011-03-09T21:03:16","slug":"aspm-prediction-magic-vs-heat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/2011\/nba-stats\/aspm-prediction-magic-vs-heat\/","title":{"rendered":"ASPM Prediction: Magic vs. Heat"},"content":{"rendered":"

The ASPM spreadsheet (download here<\/a>) has a sheet for estimating a game’s results, based on team rest, location, and the rotation of players expected to play. For a quick example, I’ll look at the Magic vs. Heat game this evening. Here’s the sheet:<\/p>\n

\"ASPM<\/a>

Advanced Statistical Plus\/Minus prediction for the 2\/3\/2011 Magic-Heat game<\/p><\/div>\n

I estimated the minutes each player would play based upon the rotations of the last 5 games for each team. Redick is probable and Bass is out for the Magic; Haslem is of course out for the Heat. I used the Bayesian best estimate for the current true-talent ASPM as the projected plus\/minus for each player. That hurts Anderson and Turkoglu (both have been playing really well recently). The Heat have tightened up their rotation recently (as I mentioned in my recap of the OKC-MIA game<\/a>); they’ve basically dropped Arroyo from the lineup, which is good for them.<\/p>\n

The resulting estimate has Orlando at a +6.2 efficiency differential and Miami at a +11.1. However, Orlando is at home. Both teams have the same rest situation. The result: Miami as a +9.9, Orlando as a +8.2 (compared to a league-average team with a league-average rest situation on a neutral floor.) The projected score is 94.6 to 92.8, or I’ll call it 95 to 93. Miami has a 59% chance of winning.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The ASPM spreadsheet (download here) has a sheet for estimating a game’s results, based on team rest, location, and the rotation of players expected to play. For a quick example, I’ll look at the Magic vs. Heat game this evening. Here’s the sheet: I estimated the minutes each player would play based upon the rotations … [Read more…]<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,18,12],"tags":[56,32,54,27,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/217"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=217"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/217\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":334,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/217\/revisions\/334"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=217"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=217"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=217"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}