{"id":543,"date":"2011-04-16T10:01:31","date_gmt":"2011-04-16T15:01:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/?p=543"},"modified":"2011-04-16T12:50:04","modified_gmt":"2011-04-16T17:50:04","slug":"playoff-odds-2011","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/2011\/nba-stats\/playoff-odds-2011\/","title":{"rendered":"Playoff Odds 2011"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011!<\/p>\n

(Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Seed<\/strong><\/th>\nTm<\/strong><\/th>\nWOWY<\/strong><\/th>\nShortened<\/strong><\/th>\nCombined<\/strong><\/th>\nReStdev<\/strong><\/th>\nWin 1st<\/strong><\/th>\nWin 2nd<\/strong><\/th>\nWin Conf<\/strong><\/th>\nWin Title<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/strong><\/td>\nCHI<\/strong><\/td>\n10.40<\/strong><\/td>\n0.16<\/td>\n10.56<\/strong><\/td>\n11.9<\/td>\n96.85%<\/td>\n67.32%<\/td>\n44.34%<\/td>\n31.75%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/strong><\/td>\nIND<\/strong><\/td>\n-0.20<\/strong><\/td>\n1.02<\/td>\n0.82<\/strong><\/td>\n11.3<\/td>\n3.15%<\/td>\n0.31%<\/td>\n0.02%<\/td>\n0.02%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/strong><\/td>\nORL<\/strong><\/td>\n7.30<\/strong><\/td>\n1.14<\/td>\n8.44<\/strong><\/td>\n11.0<\/td>\n97.82%<\/td>\n32.32%<\/td>\n16.73%<\/td>\n12.27%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/strong><\/td>\nATL<\/strong><\/td>\n-3.30<\/strong><\/td>\n0.63<\/td>\n-2.67<\/strong><\/td>\n13.7<\/td>\n2.18%<\/td>\n0.05%<\/td>\n0.00%<\/td>\n0.00%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/strong><\/td>\nBOS<\/strong><\/td>\n6.20<\/strong><\/td>\n0.64<\/td>\n6.84<\/strong><\/td>\n11.2<\/td>\n74.37%<\/td>\n27.28%<\/td>\n7.38%<\/td>\n5.24%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/strong><\/td>\nNYK<\/strong><\/td>\n3.50<\/strong><\/td>\n0.29<\/td>\n3.79<\/strong><\/td>\n11.6<\/td>\n25.63%<\/td>\n5.07%<\/td>\n0.59%<\/td>\n0.42%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/strong><\/td>\nMIA<\/strong><\/td>\n9.20<\/strong><\/td>\n0.80<\/td>\n10.00<\/strong><\/td>\n12.4<\/td>\n88.04%<\/td>\n63.84%<\/td>\n30.52%<\/td>\n22.14%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/strong><\/td>\nPHI<\/strong><\/td>\n2.70<\/strong><\/td>\n1.18<\/td>\n3.88<\/strong><\/td>\n11.8<\/td>\n11.96%<\/td>\n3.81%<\/td>\n0.42%<\/td>\n0.28%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/strong><\/td>\nSAS<\/strong><\/td>\n7.10<\/strong><\/td>\n1.52<\/td>\n8.62<\/strong><\/td>\n11.1<\/td>\n67.18%<\/td>\n24.57%<\/td>\n14.75%<\/td>\n4.22%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/strong><\/td>\nMEM<\/strong><\/td>\n4.90<\/strong><\/td>\n1.80<\/td>\n6.70<\/strong><\/td>\n11.4<\/td>\n32.82%<\/td>\n7.92%<\/td>\n3.74%<\/td>\n1.18%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/strong><\/td>\nOKC<\/strong><\/td>\n8.30<\/strong><\/td>\n0.59<\/td>\n8.89<\/strong><\/td>\n10.8<\/td>\n31.33%<\/td>\n16.51%<\/td>\n10.25%<\/td>\n2.95%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/strong><\/td>\nDEN<\/strong><\/td>\n11.00<\/strong><\/td>\n0.88<\/td>\n11.88<\/strong><\/td>\n11.5<\/td>\n68.67%<\/td>\n51.00%<\/td>\n41.69%<\/td>\n11.44%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/strong><\/td>\nDAL<\/strong><\/td>\n7.00<\/strong><\/td>\n1.09<\/td>\n8.09<\/strong><\/td>\n10.4<\/td>\n66.66%<\/td>\n39.19%<\/td>\n12.20%<\/td>\n3.46%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/strong><\/td>\nPOR<\/strong><\/td>\n6.10<\/strong><\/td>\n0.22<\/td>\n6.32<\/strong><\/td>\n12.5<\/td>\n33.34%<\/td>\n15.42%<\/td>\n3.55%<\/td>\n0.82%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/strong><\/td>\nLAL<\/strong><\/td>\n6.80<\/strong><\/td>\n0.92<\/td>\n7.72<\/strong><\/td>\n12.7<\/td>\n94.18%<\/td>\n45.09%<\/td>\n13.82%<\/td>\n3.81%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/strong><\/td>\nNOH<\/strong><\/td>\n-2.50<\/strong><\/td>\n1.61<\/td>\n-0.89<\/strong><\/td>\n12.2<\/td>\n5.82%<\/td>\n0.30%<\/td>\n0.00%<\/td>\n0.00%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Picks for the 1st Round:
\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
CHI vs IND<\/th>\nORL vs ATL<\/th>\nBOS vs NYK<\/th>\nMIA vs PHI<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
4 to 0<\/td>\n38.2%<\/strong><\/td>\n4 to 0<\/td>\n42.3%<\/td>\n4 to 0<\/td>\n12.2%<\/td>\n4 to 0<\/td>\n21.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4 to 1<\/td>\n36.9%<\/td>\n4 to 1<\/td>\n36.4%<\/strong><\/td>\n4 to 1<\/td>\n25.0%<\/strong><\/td>\n4 to 1<\/td>\n32.4%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4 to 2<\/td>\n14.2%<\/td>\n4 to 2<\/td>\n12.9%<\/td>\n4 to 2<\/td>\n17.5%<\/td>\n4 to 2<\/td>\n18.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4 to 3<\/td>\n7.7%<\/td>\n4 to 3<\/td>\n6.3%<\/td>\n4 to 3<\/td>\n20.1%<\/td>\n4 to 3<\/td>\n15.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3 to 4<\/td>\n1.2%<\/td>\n3 to 4<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n3 to 4<\/td>\n8.2%<\/td>\n3 to 4<\/td>\n4.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2 to 4<\/td>\n1.3%<\/td>\n2 to 4<\/td>\n0.9%<\/td>\n2 to 4<\/td>\n10.6%<\/td>\n2 to 4<\/td>\n5.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1 to 4<\/td>\n0.3%<\/td>\n1 to 4<\/td>\n0.2%<\/td>\n1 to 4<\/td>\n4.3%<\/td>\n1 to 4<\/td>\n1.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0 to 4<\/td>\n0.1%<\/td>\n0 to 4<\/td>\n0.1%<\/td>\n0 to 4<\/td>\n2.2%<\/td>\n0 to 4<\/td>\n0.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n


\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
SAS vs MEM<\/th>\nOKC vs DEN<\/th>\nDAL vs POR<\/th>\nLAL vs NOH<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
4 to 0<\/td>\n9.4%<\/td>\n4 to 0<\/td>\n2.2%<\/td>\n4 to 0<\/td>\n9.0%<\/td>\n4 to 0<\/td>\n30.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4 to 1<\/td>\n21.5%<\/td>\n4 to 1<\/td>\n7.5%<\/td>\n4 to 1<\/td>\n20.8%<\/td>\n4 to 1<\/td>\n35.8%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4 to 2<\/td>\n16.2%<\/td>\n4 to 2<\/td>\n7.3%<\/td>\n4 to 2<\/td>\n15.9%<\/td>\n4 to 2<\/td>\n16.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4 to 3<\/td>\n20.7%<\/strong><\/td>\n4 to 3<\/td>\n14.4%<\/strong><\/td>\n4 to 3<\/td>\n20.7%<\/strong><\/td>\n4 to 3<\/td>\n11.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3 to 4<\/td>\n9.9%<\/td>\n3 to 4<\/td>\n13.9%<\/td>\n3 to 4<\/td>\n10.2%<\/td>\n3 to 4<\/td>\n2.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2 to 4<\/td>\n13.4%<\/td>\n2 to 4<\/td>\n25.2%<\/td>\n2 to 4<\/td>\n13.8%<\/td>\n2 to 4<\/td>\n2.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1 to 4<\/td>\n5.9%<\/td>\n1 to 4<\/td>\n17.3%<\/td>\n1 to 4<\/td>\n6.2%<\/td>\n1 to 4<\/td>\n0.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0 to 4<\/td>\n3.1%<\/td>\n0 to 4<\/td>\n12.2%<\/td>\n0 to 4<\/td>\n3.3%<\/td>\n0 to 4<\/td>\n0.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

EDIT: Spreadsheet to do Monte Carlo here<\/a>, with odds for particular outcomes in series based on your inputs!<\/strong><\/p>\n

Also, I might add that doing Monte Carlo on the L8 or L18 data from raw Bayesian<\/a> (not WOWY) may be more accurate than the WOWY Bayesian.\u00a0 I’m not sure, and I don’t have time to run the numbers.\u00a0 Anyone can calculate that with the spreadsheet above.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011! (Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons) Seed Tm WOWY Shortened Combined ReStdev Win 1st Win 2nd Win Conf Win Title 1 CHI 10.40 0.16 10.56 11.9 96.85% 67.32% 44.34% 31.75% … [Read more…]<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[21,54,37,27,22,24,25],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=543"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":549,"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543\/revisions\/549"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=543"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=543"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=543"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}