{"id":411,"date":"2011-03-17T10:45:06","date_gmt":"2011-03-17T15:45:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/?p=411"},"modified":"2011-03-17T10:45:06","modified_gmt":"2011-03-17T15:45:06","slug":"on-crowds-and-contrarian-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/2011\/ncaa-basketball\/on-crowds-and-contrarian-picks\/","title":{"rendered":"On Crowds and Contrarian Picks"},"content":{"rendered":"

If you are choosing NCAA tournament picks in a LARGE group (like ESPN), then, if possible, you need to account for what the masses have chosen in making your own selections.\u00a0 Fortunately, ESPN publicly shows what everyone has picked–and that lets us account for them.<\/p>\n

As the number of people approaches infinity, the formula for “Pick Value” is equal to Val=(Stat%*2-Mass%)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

If you have very few people in the pool, use Stat% for selecting.\u00a0 In other words, your best judgment of the odds, as informed by statistics, is the best choice.\u00a0 And that gradually slides towards the Pick Value equation as the number of people increases.\u00a0 I haven’t yet figured out how to calculate the actual equation based on the number of people.<\/p>\n

I’ve updated the Bayesian Tourney ratings with a few manual tweaks to adjust for teams that have players coming back from injury (or missing from injury, like BYU, who I tweaked down 5 points), and also from games last night.<\/p>\n

The updated ratings and odds (GmErr = sqrt(TmStdev^2\/2)):<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
O<\/th>Sd<\/th>Re<\/th>Team<\/th>Power<\/th>GmErr<\/th>32<\/th>16<\/th>Elite 8<\/th>Final 4<\/th>Final<\/th>Champ<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>1<\/td>E<\/td>Ohio St.<\/td>33.24<\/td>10.50<\/td>99.70<\/td>85.96<\/td>60.040<\/td>44.997<\/td>28.0758<\/td>19.7785<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>4<\/td>E<\/td>Kentucky<\/td>27.84<\/td>10.14<\/td>93.28<\/td>60.95<\/td>25.212<\/td>15.944<\/td>7.6292<\/td>4.3798<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>3<\/td>E<\/td>Syracuse<\/td>25.19<\/td>12.32<\/td>88.20<\/td>53.29<\/td>31.746<\/td>12.205<\/td>5.0851<\/td>2.5636<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16<\/td>2<\/td>E<\/td>North Carolina<\/td>23.41<\/td>11.29<\/td>90.47<\/td>57.05<\/td>29.284<\/td>9.887<\/td>3.6368<\/td>1.6716<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12<\/td>6<\/td>E<\/td>Xavier<\/td>21.77<\/td>12.22<\/td>55.28<\/td>26.03<\/td>13.443<\/td>4.146<\/td>1.3924<\/td>0.5879<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>12<\/td>E<\/td>Clemson<\/td>22.75<\/td>9.23<\/td>52.64<\/td>20.57<\/td>5.913<\/td>2.989<\/td>1.0053<\/td>0.4398<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13<\/td>7<\/td>E<\/td>Washington<\/td>20.00<\/td>11.21<\/td>62.89<\/td>28.78<\/td>12.422<\/td>3.267<\/td>0.9399<\/td>0.3530<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>5<\/td>E<\/td>West Virginia<\/td>21.85<\/td>9.97<\/td>47.36<\/td>17.62<\/td>4.834<\/td>2.331<\/td>0.7450<\/td>0.3099<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/td>11<\/td>E<\/td>Marquette<\/td>19.68<\/td>9.88<\/td>44.72<\/td>18.72<\/td>8.684<\/td>2.118<\/td>0.5667<\/td>0.2041<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>9<\/td>E<\/td>Villanova<\/td>17.76<\/td>10.96<\/td>56.95<\/td>8.89<\/td>2.692<\/td>1.033<\/td>0.2454<\/td>0.0789<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14<\/td>10<\/td>E<\/td>Georgia<\/td>14.94<\/td>10.52<\/td>37.11<\/td>12.54<\/td>3.909<\/td>0.640<\/td>0.1151<\/td>0.0294<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>8<\/td>E<\/td>George Mason<\/td>15.03<\/td>11.10<\/td>43.05<\/td>5.12<\/td>1.251<\/td>0.403<\/td>0.0757<\/td>0.0199<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>14<\/td>E<\/td>Indiana St.<\/td>5.26<\/td>11.44<\/td>11.80<\/td>1.95<\/td>0.327<\/td>0.020<\/td>0.0014<\/td>0.0002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>13<\/td>E<\/td>Princeton<\/td>6.74<\/td>9.79<\/td>6.72<\/td>0.86<\/td>0.054<\/td>0.008<\/td>0.0005<\/td>0.0001<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/td>15<\/td>E<\/td>Long Island<\/td>4.33<\/td>9.23<\/td>9.53<\/td>1.63<\/td>0.185<\/td>0.007<\/td>0.0003<\/td>0.0000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>16<\/td>E<\/td>Texas San Antonio<\/td>-2.20<\/td>7.49<\/td>0.30<\/td>0.02<\/td>0.000<\/td>0.000<\/td>0.0000<\/td>0.0000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19<\/td>1<\/td>W<\/td>Duke<\/td>32.27<\/td>8.63<\/td>98.75<\/td>84.84<\/td>58.036<\/td>42.875<\/td>25.8835<\/td>18.0317<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
26<\/td>4<\/td>W<\/td>Texas<\/td>28.38<\/td>10.19<\/td>90.95<\/td>77.85<\/td>34.478<\/td>21.683<\/td>10.8306<\/td>6.3678<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
34<\/td>2<\/td>W<\/td>San Diego St.<\/td>26.64<\/td>9.95<\/td>97.94<\/td>70.39<\/td>45.682<\/td>18.575<\/td>8.4489<\/td>4.5882<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
27<\/td>3<\/td>W<\/td>Connecticut<\/td>23.38<\/td>9.42<\/td>89.73<\/td>57.13<\/td>27.202<\/td>8.608<\/td>3.1903<\/td>1.4517<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
31<\/td>7<\/td>W<\/td>Temple<\/td>19.14<\/td>9.46<\/td>55.74<\/td>17.04<\/td>7.594<\/td>1.660<\/td>0.4517<\/td>0.1552<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30<\/td>6<\/td>W<\/td>Cincinnati<\/td>18.06<\/td>12.46<\/td>49.15<\/td>20.11<\/td>7.142<\/td>1.650<\/td>0.4544<\/td>0.1540<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
29<\/td>11<\/td>W<\/td>Missouri<\/td>18.40<\/td>10.20<\/td>50.85<\/td>20.66<\/td>7.193<\/td>1.527<\/td>0.4013<\/td>0.1327<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21<\/td>9<\/td>W<\/td>Tennessee<\/td>18.81<\/td>9.67<\/td>53.14<\/td>8.42<\/td>2.866<\/td>1.063<\/td>0.2835<\/td>0.0955<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
32<\/td>10<\/td>W<\/td>Penn St.<\/td>16.93<\/td>12.05<\/td>44.26<\/td>12.38<\/td>4.943<\/td>1.018<\/td>0.2547<\/td>0.0793<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22<\/td>8<\/td>W<\/td>Michigan<\/td>17.73<\/td>9.69<\/td>46.86<\/td>6.57<\/td>2.075<\/td>0.712<\/td>0.1741<\/td>0.0541<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23<\/td>5<\/td>W<\/td>Arizona<\/td>14.64<\/td>9.91<\/td>62.69<\/td>13.09<\/td>1.792<\/td>0.485<\/td>0.0916<\/td>0.0223<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
24<\/td>12<\/td>W<\/td>Memphis<\/td>9.93<\/td>10.65<\/td>37.31<\/td>5.24<\/td>0.455<\/td>0.084<\/td>0.0106<\/td>0.0017<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
25<\/td>13<\/td>W<\/td>Oakland<\/td>10.22<\/td>8.96<\/td>9.05<\/td>3.82<\/td>0.282<\/td>0.048<\/td>0.0055<\/td>0.0008<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
28<\/td>14<\/td>W<\/td>Bucknell<\/td>5.56<\/td>10.45<\/td>10.27<\/td>2.11<\/td>0.232<\/td>0.012<\/td>0.0009<\/td>0.0001<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20<\/td>16<\/td>W<\/td>Hampton<\/td>4.03<\/td>9.18<\/td>1.25<\/td>0.18<\/td>0.016<\/td>0.001<\/td>0.0001<\/td>0.0000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
33<\/td>15<\/td>W<\/td>Northern Colorado<\/td>-0.20<\/td>8.59<\/td>2.06<\/td>0.19<\/td>0.012<\/td>0.000<\/td>0.0000<\/td>0.0000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
36<\/td>1<\/td>SW<\/td>Kansas<\/td>29.35<\/td>10.84<\/td>97.99<\/td>73.25<\/td>51.612<\/td>33.055<\/td>21.8938<\/td>10.8096<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
44<\/td>3<\/td>SW<\/td>Purdue<\/td>25.65<\/td>10.24<\/td>94.59<\/td>66.24<\/td>38.327<\/td>19.245<\/td>11.0369<\/td>4.3671<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
51<\/td>2<\/td>SW<\/td>Notre Dame<\/td>25.58<\/td>11.49<\/td>94.47<\/td>68.29<\/td>38.353<\/td>19.181<\/td>10.8944<\/td>4.3571<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
43<\/td>4<\/td>SW<\/td>Louisville<\/td>24.42<\/td>10.37<\/td>83.21<\/td>58.15<\/td>25.633<\/td>13.263<\/td>7.1766<\/td>2.6195<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
38<\/td>9<\/td>SW<\/td>Illinois<\/td>20.55<\/td>9.15<\/td>56.04<\/td>15.76<\/td>7.677<\/td>3.164<\/td>1.3813<\/td>0.3622<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
47<\/td>6<\/td>SW<\/td>Georgetown<\/td>19.58<\/td>10.64<\/td>61.79<\/td>22.85<\/td>9.634<\/td>3.377<\/td>1.4063<\/td>0.3594<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
40<\/td>5<\/td>SW<\/td>Vanderbilt<\/td>18.35<\/td>9.54<\/td>60.69<\/td>24.15<\/td>6.933<\/td>2.468<\/td>0.9380<\/td>0.2054<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
39<\/td>8<\/td>SW<\/td>Nevada Las Vegas<\/td>18.46<\/td>10.30<\/td>43.96<\/td>10.85<\/td>4.702<\/td>1.707<\/td>0.6605<\/td>0.1513<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
49<\/td>10<\/td>SW<\/td>Florida St.<\/td>17.62<\/td>7.10<\/td>52.49<\/td>16.42<\/td>5.545<\/td>1.537<\/td>0.5317<\/td>0.0951<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
48<\/td>7<\/td>SW<\/td>Texas A&M<\/td>16.90<\/td>9.02<\/td>47.51<\/td>14.71<\/td>4.885<\/td>1.346<\/td>0.4575<\/td>0.0848<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
46<\/td>11<\/td>SW<\/td>Virginia Commonwealth<\/td>15.16<\/td>10.21<\/td>38.21<\/td>10.15<\/td>3.149<\/td>0.781<\/td>0.2396<\/td>0.0402<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
41<\/td>12<\/td>SW<\/td>Richmond<\/td>14.49<\/td>10.61<\/td>39.31<\/td>12.29<\/td>2.656<\/td>0.724<\/td>0.2136<\/td>0.0345<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
42<\/td>13<\/td>SW<\/td>Morehead St.<\/td>10.10<\/td>10.66<\/td>16.79<\/td>5.42<\/td>0.777<\/td>0.145<\/td>0.0300<\/td>0.0031<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
45<\/td>14<\/td>SW<\/td>St. Peter's<\/td>1.09<\/td>11.34<\/td>5.41<\/td>0.76<\/td>0.065<\/td>0.004<\/td>0.0004<\/td>0.0000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
50<\/td>15<\/td>SW<\/td>Akron<\/td>0.01<\/td>11.16<\/td>5.53<\/td>0.58<\/td>0.042<\/td>0.002<\/td>0.0002<\/td>0.0000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
37<\/td>16<\/td>SW<\/td>Boston University<\/td>-0.99<\/td>10.05<\/td>2.01<\/td>0.14<\/td>0.010<\/td>0.000<\/td>0.0000<\/td>0.0000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
53<\/td>1<\/td>SE<\/td>Pittsburgh<\/td>25.94<\/td>8.56<\/td>96.74<\/td>70.15<\/td>41.056<\/td>27.370<\/td>13.9741<\/td>5.5168<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
60<\/td>4<\/td>SE<\/td>Wisconsin<\/td>26.11<\/td>11.94<\/td>72.73<\/td>45.36<\/td>25.407<\/td>16.500<\/td>8.4654<\/td>3.5119<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
68<\/td>2<\/td>SE<\/td>Florida<\/td>23.22<\/td>11.58<\/td>87.01<\/td>55.38<\/td>35.122<\/td>16.882<\/td>7.4605<\/td>2.5685<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
61<\/td>3<\/td>SE<\/td>Brigham Young<\/td>19.68<\/td>11.12<\/td>78.11<\/td>44.65<\/td>21.519<\/td>8.403<\/td>2.9789<\/td>0.7815<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
58<\/td>12<\/td>SE<\/td>Utah St.<\/td>21.64<\/td>10.91<\/td>53.26<\/td>24.43<\/td>10.838<\/td>5.947<\/td>2.3840<\/td>0.7224<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
57<\/td>5<\/td>SE<\/td>Kansas St.<\/td>20.41<\/td>10.43<\/td>46.74<\/td>20.01<\/td>8.187<\/td>4.245<\/td>1.5620<\/td>0.4237<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
56<\/td>8<\/td>SE<\/td>Butler<\/td>19.26<\/td>12.54<\/td>62.09<\/td>21.60<\/td>9.038<\/td>4.430<\/td>1.5664<\/td>0.4188<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
64<\/td>6<\/td>SE<\/td>St. John's<\/td>17.44<\/td>12.59<\/td>53.25<\/td>27.06<\/td>11.682<\/td>4.056<\/td>1.2767<\/td>0.2981<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
65<\/td>7<\/td>SE<\/td>UCLA<\/td>17.83<\/td>10.36<\/td>50.82<\/td>21.38<\/td>10.833<\/td>3.687<\/td>1.1287<\/td>0.2455<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
66<\/td>10<\/td>SE<\/td>Michigan St.<\/td>17.52<\/td>11.32<\/td>49.18<\/td>20.49<\/td>10.223<\/td>3.474<\/td>1.0652<\/td>0.2361<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
63<\/td>11<\/td>SE<\/td>Gonzaga<\/td>16.11<\/td>10.37<\/td>46.75<\/td>22.22<\/td>8.713<\/td>2.610<\/td>0.6990<\/td>0.1299<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
59<\/td>13<\/td>SE<\/td>Belmont<\/td>15.93<\/td>11.87<\/td>27.27<\/td>10.21<\/td>3.171<\/td>1.304<\/td>0.3618<\/td>0.0720<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
55<\/td>9<\/td>SE<\/td>Old Dominion<\/td>14.39<\/td>9.60<\/td>37.91<\/td>7.82<\/td>2.270<\/td>0.826<\/td>0.1852<\/td>0.0275<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
62<\/td>14<\/td>SE<\/td>Wofford<\/td>6.95<\/td>12.06<\/td>21.89<\/td>6.08<\/td>1.292<\/td>0.192<\/td>0.0247<\/td>0.0021<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
67<\/td>15<\/td>SE<\/td>UC Santa Barbara<\/td>5.60<\/td>10.50<\/td>12.99<\/td>2.75<\/td>0.617<\/td>0.070<\/td>0.0068<\/td>0.0004<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
54<\/td>16<\/td>SE<\/td>NC Asheville<\/td>-1.40<\/td>12.11<\/td>3.26<\/td>0.43<\/td>0.033<\/td>0.003<\/td>0.0002<\/td>0.0000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

And here are the pick values, using the ESPN 1-2-4-8-16-32 weighting system and the picks of the ESPN pool.\u00a0 The value for each round is the cumulative<\/strong> value of having the team reach that round.\u00a0 Interestingly, there are a lot of teams in the later rounds with similar values, so there are a variety of different choices that could be made without losing much expected value versus the ESPN crowds.<\/p>\n

The pick using this method for NCAA champ is Texas–in other words, Texas is greatly undervalued by the ESPN crowd.\u00a0 Other Final 4 teams would be Wisconsin, Ohio St., and Kansas.\u00a0 Ohio State and Kansas are so good that even though the crowd may like them, there’s no value in picking against them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
O<\/th>Sd<\/th>Re<\/th>Team<\/th>32<\/th>16<\/th>8<\/th>4<\/th>2<\/th>Champ<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>1<\/td>E<\/td>Ohio St.<\/td>0.999<\/td>2.515<\/td>4.13<\/td>6.43<\/td>7.64<\/td>11.98<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>16<\/td>E<\/td>Texas San Antonio<\/td>0.001<\/td>-0.004<\/td>-0.01<\/td>-0.02<\/td>-0.02<\/td>-0.02<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>9<\/td>E<\/td>Villanova<\/td>0.596<\/td>0.786<\/td>0.93<\/td>1.05<\/td>1.10<\/td>1.12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>8<\/td>E<\/td>George Mason<\/td>0.404<\/td>0.497<\/td>0.55<\/td>0.59<\/td>0.60<\/td>0.58<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>5<\/td>E<\/td>West Virginia<\/td>0.155<\/td>0.322<\/td>0.37<\/td>0.57<\/td>0.70<\/td>0.80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>12<\/td>E<\/td>Clemson<\/td>0.845<\/td>1.620<\/td>2.07<\/td>2.53<\/td>2.84<\/td>3.12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>13<\/td>E<\/td>Princeton<\/td>0.086<\/td>0.093<\/td>0.09<\/td>0.08<\/td>0.06<\/td>0.06<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>4<\/td>E<\/td>Kentucky<\/td>0.914<\/td>1.952<\/td>3.22<\/td>5.10<\/td>6.99<\/td>9.41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>3<\/td>E<\/td>Syracuse<\/td>0.794<\/td>1.404<\/td>2.62<\/td>3.62<\/td>4.56<\/td>5.62<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>14<\/td>E<\/td>Indiana St.<\/td>0.206<\/td>0.266<\/td>0.28<\/td>0.28<\/td>0.28<\/td>0.28<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/td>11<\/td>E<\/td>Marquette<\/td>0.471<\/td>1.138<\/td>1.79<\/td>2.11<\/td>2.27<\/td>2.40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12<\/td>6<\/td>E<\/td>Xavier<\/td>0.529<\/td>1.290<\/td>2.24<\/td>2.86<\/td>3.25<\/td>3.60<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13<\/td>7<\/td>E<\/td>Washington<\/td>0.530<\/td>1.157<\/td>1.83<\/td>2.24<\/td>2.44<\/td>2.60<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14<\/td>10<\/td>E<\/td>Georgia<\/td>0.470<\/td>0.922<\/td>1.21<\/td>1.30<\/td>1.32<\/td>1.34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/td>15<\/td>E<\/td>Long Island<\/td>0.180<\/td>0.235<\/td>0.24<\/td>0.24<\/td>0.24<\/td>0.24<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16<\/td>2<\/td>E<\/td>North Carolina<\/td>0.820<\/td>1.368<\/td>1.34<\/td>1.04<\/td>0.36<\/td>-0.11<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
17<\/td>1<\/td>W<\/td>Duke<\/td>0.981<\/td>2.483<\/td>3.99<\/td>6.09<\/td>8.10<\/td>12.12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18<\/td>16<\/td>W<\/td>Hampton<\/td>0.019<\/td>0.020<\/td>0.01<\/td>0.01<\/td>0.01<\/td>0.01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19<\/td>9<\/td>W<\/td>Tennessee<\/td>0.525<\/td>0.701<\/td>0.86<\/td>1.00<\/td>1.06<\/td>1.08<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20<\/td>8<\/td>W<\/td>Michigan<\/td>0.475<\/td>0.614<\/td>0.73<\/td>0.81<\/td>0.85<\/td>0.86<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21<\/td>5<\/td>W<\/td>Arizona<\/td>0.459<\/td>0.199<\/td>-0.16<\/td>-0.54<\/td>-0.73<\/td>-0.84<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22<\/td>12<\/td>W<\/td>Memphis<\/td>0.541<\/td>0.709<\/td>0.73<\/td>0.73<\/td>0.71<\/td>0.71<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23<\/td>13<\/td>W<\/td>Oakland<\/td>0.066<\/td>0.185<\/td>0.20<\/td>0.19<\/td>0.17<\/td>0.17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
24<\/td>4<\/td>W<\/td>Texas<\/td>0.934<\/td>3.032<\/td>5.14<\/td>8.04<\/td>11.00<\/td>14.78<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
25<\/td>3<\/td>W<\/td>Connecticut<\/td>0.828<\/td>1.619<\/td>2.54<\/td>3.07<\/td>3.45<\/td>3.80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
26<\/td>14<\/td>W<\/td>Bucknell<\/td>0.172<\/td>0.237<\/td>0.24<\/td>0.24<\/td>0.24<\/td>0.24<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
27<\/td>11<\/td>W<\/td>Missouri<\/td>0.590<\/td>1.330<\/td>1.86<\/td>2.08<\/td>2.19<\/td>2.25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
28<\/td>6<\/td>W<\/td>Cincinnati<\/td>0.410<\/td>0.970<\/td>1.43<\/td>1.65<\/td>1.76<\/td>1.83<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
29<\/td>7<\/td>W<\/td>Temple<\/td>0.560<\/td>1.067<\/td>1.59<\/td>1.80<\/td>1.92<\/td>1.98<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30<\/td>10<\/td>W<\/td>Penn St.<\/td>0.440<\/td>0.823<\/td>1.17<\/td>1.31<\/td>1.38<\/td>1.39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
31<\/td>15<\/td>W<\/td>Northern Colorado<\/td>0.019<\/td>0.013<\/td>0.01<\/td>0.00<\/td>0.00<\/td>0.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
32<\/td>2<\/td>W<\/td>San Diego St.<\/td>0.981<\/td>2.166<\/td>4.11<\/td>5.83<\/td>7.78<\/td>10.05<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
33<\/td>1<\/td>SW<\/td>Kansas<\/td>0.969<\/td>2.069<\/td>3.38<\/td>4.65<\/td>8.88<\/td>13.81<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
34<\/td>16<\/td>SW<\/td>Boston University<\/td>0.031<\/td>0.027<\/td>0.02<\/td>0.01<\/td>0.01<\/td>0.01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
35<\/td>9<\/td>SW<\/td>Illinois<\/td>0.624<\/td>1.124<\/td>1.68<\/td>2.15<\/td>2.58<\/td>2.78<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
36<\/td>8<\/td>SW<\/td>Nevada Las Vegas<\/td>0.376<\/td>0.668<\/td>0.98<\/td>1.23<\/td>1.40<\/td>1.47<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
37<\/td>5<\/td>SW<\/td>Vanderbilt<\/td>0.591<\/td>1.237<\/td>1.64<\/td>1.96<\/td>2.21<\/td>2.28<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
38<\/td>12<\/td>SW<\/td>Richmond<\/td>0.409<\/td>0.841<\/td>1.02<\/td>1.12<\/td>1.17<\/td>1.20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
39<\/td>13<\/td>SW<\/td>Morehead St.<\/td>0.292<\/td>0.484<\/td>0.53<\/td>0.55<\/td>0.54<\/td>0.55<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
40<\/td>4<\/td>SW<\/td>Louisville<\/td>0.708<\/td>1.594<\/td>2.58<\/td>3.89<\/td>5.61<\/td>6.87<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
41<\/td>3<\/td>SW<\/td>Purdue<\/td>0.920<\/td>1.993<\/td>3.42<\/td>5.51<\/td>8.34<\/td>10.56<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
42<\/td>14<\/td>SW<\/td>St. Peter's<\/td>0.080<\/td>0.095<\/td>0.09<\/td>0.08<\/td>0.08<\/td>0.08<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
43<\/td>11<\/td>SW<\/td>Virginia Commonwealth<\/td>0.605<\/td>0.973<\/td>1.21<\/td>1.32<\/td>1.38<\/td>1.40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
44<\/td>6<\/td>SW<\/td>Georgetown<\/td>0.395<\/td>0.423<\/td>0.55<\/td>0.57<\/td>0.78<\/td>0.85<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
45<\/td>7<\/td>SW<\/td>Texas A&M<\/td>0.410<\/td>0.837<\/td>1.16<\/td>1.34<\/td>1.45<\/td>1.48<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
46<\/td>10<\/td>SW<\/td>Florida St.<\/td>0.590<\/td>1.129<\/td>1.52<\/td>1.74<\/td>1.89<\/td>1.92<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
47<\/td>15<\/td>SW<\/td>Akron<\/td>0.096<\/td>0.109<\/td>0.10<\/td>0.10<\/td>0.10<\/td>0.10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
48<\/td>2<\/td>SW<\/td>Notre Dame<\/td>0.904<\/td>1.936<\/td>2.78<\/td>4.30<\/td>6.27<\/td>7.78<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
49<\/td>1<\/td>SE<\/td>Pittsburgh<\/td>0.942<\/td>1.862<\/td>2.19<\/td>2.55<\/td>2.96<\/td>1.43<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
50<\/td>16<\/td>SE<\/td>NC Asheville<\/td>0.058<\/td>0.067<\/td>0.06<\/td>0.05<\/td>0.05<\/td>0.05<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
51<\/td>9<\/td>SE<\/td>Old Dominion<\/td>0.353<\/td>0.598<\/td>0.75<\/td>0.86<\/td>0.90<\/td>0.92<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
52<\/td>8<\/td>SE<\/td>Butler<\/td>0.647<\/td>1.199<\/td>1.80<\/td>2.44<\/td>2.90<\/td>3.10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
53<\/td>5<\/td>SE<\/td>Kansas St.<\/td>0.216<\/td>0.600<\/td>1.03<\/td>1.59<\/td>2.01<\/td>2.22<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
54<\/td>12<\/td>SE<\/td>Utah St.<\/td>0.784<\/td>1.705<\/td>2.55<\/td>3.48<\/td>4.23<\/td>4.69<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
55<\/td>13<\/td>SE<\/td>Belmont<\/td>0.339<\/td>0.700<\/td>0.94<\/td>1.13<\/td>1.23<\/td>1.28<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
56<\/td>4<\/td>SE<\/td>Wisconsin<\/td>0.661<\/td>1.755<\/td>3.33<\/td>5.52<\/td>8.03<\/td>10.18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
57<\/td>3<\/td>SE<\/td>Brigham Young<\/td>0.616<\/td>1.092<\/td>2.09<\/td>2.79<\/td>3.22<\/td>3.37<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
58<\/td>14<\/td>SE<\/td>Wofford<\/td>0.384<\/td>0.597<\/td>0.69<\/td>0.70<\/td>0.69<\/td>0.70<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
59<\/td>11<\/td>SE<\/td>Gonzaga<\/td>0.600<\/td>1.431<\/td>2.10<\/td>2.50<\/td>2.71<\/td>2.79<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
60<\/td>6<\/td>SE<\/td>St. John's<\/td>0.400<\/td>1.106<\/td>1.88<\/td>2.44<\/td>2.79<\/td>2.91<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
61<\/td>7<\/td>SE<\/td>UCLA<\/td>0.588<\/td>1.347<\/td>2.17<\/td>2.74<\/td>3.08<\/td>3.21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
62<\/td>10<\/td>SE<\/td>Michigan St.<\/td>0.412<\/td>1.013<\/td>1.72<\/td>2.23<\/td>2.54<\/td>2.66<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
63<\/td>15<\/td>SE<\/td>UC Santa Barbara<\/td>0.244<\/td>0.344<\/td>0.39<\/td>0.39<\/td>0.39<\/td>0.39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
64<\/td>2<\/td>SE<\/td>Florida<\/td>0.756<\/td>1.314<\/td>2.30<\/td>3.71<\/td>4.94<\/td>5.44<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

And the obligatory cool chart:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Tourney Flow Value Picks 2011<\/p><\/div>\n

Download the updated spreadsheets here:<\/p>\n