{"id":107,"date":"2011-01-11T14:33:32","date_gmt":"2011-01-11T20:33:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/?p=107"},"modified":"2011-03-09T15:59:56","modified_gmt":"2011-03-09T21:59:56","slug":"nba-adjusted-efficiencies-1-11-2011","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/2011\/nba-adjusted-efficiencies\/nba-adjusted-efficiencies-1-11-2011\/","title":{"rendered":"NBA Adjusted Efficiencies 1-11-2011"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last week, I unveiled the first iteration of my adjusted efficiencies Google Motion Chart<\/a>. This week, I’ll revise and expand on it.<\/p>\n

The main thing I didn’t like about the chart was the 5-game moving averages. The games dropping off the far end of the moving average add just as much movement as the newest game adds. The solution? Use a weighted<\/strong> moving average. The scheme I have selected is a 7-game weighted moving average, which weights the most recent game 7, the next 6, and so on to the 7th-most recent 1 and the 8th 0.<\/p>\n

This has 2 effects: the movement is more smooth, and the most recent game has a bigger impact. Here’s the latest chart, again with all efficiencies adjusted by opponent, rest advantage, and location. No, I did not locally adjust the opponent adjustment; I feel using a full season-worth of data is more valuable than local precision.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

This week’s featured team is Orlando.\u00a0 Orlando has been on quite the hot streak since making the blockbuster trades.\u00a0 I questioned the trades at first<\/a>, but they seem to be working out famously.\u00a0 I’ll probably do an in-depth analysis on the results of the trade, but first I’ll simply show how impressive this hot streak has been.<\/p>\n

\"Team<\/a>

Orlando's performance through the season<\/p><\/div>\n

That’s 9 games in a row of above-NBA-average play. Most of the improvement seems related to Hedo Turkoglu, who is a different player in Orlando. (Can a statistician say that? Should I just say “small sample size?”)<\/p>\n

Here’s a table of Orlando’s games this season and their offensive and defensive numbers. Remember, negative is good for defense:
\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Gm<\/th>Game<\/th>Adjusted OE<\/th>Adjusted DE<\/th>Adjusted Margin<\/th>Result<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1<\/td>10\/28\/10 vs. WAS<\/td>4.0<\/td>-15.4<\/td>19.4<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>10\/29\/10 @ MIA<\/td>-21.7<\/td>-5.5<\/td>-16.2<\/td>L<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>11\/03\/10 vs. MIN<\/td>16.1<\/td>-17.2<\/td>33.2<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>11\/05\/10 vs. NJN<\/td>9.6<\/td>2.1<\/td>7.5<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>11\/06\/10 @ CHA<\/td>-5.9<\/td>-8.4<\/td>2.5<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>11\/08\/10 vs. ATL<\/td>-6.8<\/td>-9.6<\/td>2.9<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>11\/10\/10 vs. UTA<\/td>-7.8<\/td>6.5<\/td>-14.3<\/td>L<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>11\/12\/10 vs. TOR<\/td>-0.6<\/td>11.5<\/td>-12.1<\/td>L<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>11\/13\/10 @ NJN<\/td>1.0<\/td>0.2<\/td>0.8<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>11\/15\/10 vs. MEM<\/td>-3.0<\/td>-23.0<\/td>19.9<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/td>11\/18\/10 vs. PHO<\/td>1.2<\/td>-7.7<\/td>8.9<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12<\/td>11\/20\/10 @ IND<\/td>-2.9<\/td>-8.2<\/td>5.3<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13<\/td>11\/22\/10 @ SAS<\/td>0.1<\/td>2.8<\/td>-2.6<\/td>L<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14<\/td>11\/24\/10 vs. MIA<\/td>14.8<\/td>-1.9<\/td>16.7<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/td>11\/26\/10 vs. CLE<\/td>6.3<\/td>10.5<\/td>-4.2<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16<\/td>11\/27\/10 @ WAS<\/td>8.0<\/td>6.0<\/td>1.9<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
17<\/td>11\/30\/10 vs. DET<\/td>-3.7<\/td>-9.8<\/td>6.1<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18<\/td>12\/01\/10 @ CHI<\/td>27.4<\/td>-15.9<\/td>43.3<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19<\/td>12\/03\/10 @ DET<\/td>13.7<\/td>0.3<\/td>13.4<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20<\/td>12\/04\/10 @ MIL<\/td>-7.1<\/td>-1.2<\/td>-5.8<\/td>L<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21<\/td>12\/06\/10 vs. ATL<\/td>-24.3<\/td>-17.1<\/td>-7.2<\/td>L<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22<\/td>12\/09\/10 @ POR<\/td>-11.7<\/td>-2.8<\/td>-8.9<\/td>L<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23<\/td>12\/10\/10 @ UTA<\/td>9.6<\/td>12.7<\/td>-3.1<\/td>L<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
24<\/td>12\/12\/10 @ LAC<\/td>0.2<\/td>-9.5<\/td>9.7<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
25<\/td>12\/14\/10 @ DEN<\/td>-4.3<\/td>9.6<\/td>-13.9<\/td>L<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
26<\/td>12\/18\/10 vs. PHI<\/td>-14.8<\/td>-0.3<\/td>-14.4<\/td>L<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
27<\/td>12\/20\/10 @ ATL<\/td>-19.4<\/td>-8.8<\/td>-10.5<\/td>L<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
28<\/td>12\/21\/10 vs. DAL<\/td>1.5<\/td>6.0<\/td>-4.5<\/td>L<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
29<\/td>12\/23\/10 vs. SAS<\/td>20.2<\/td>-5.1<\/td>25.3<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30<\/td>12\/25\/10 vs. BOS<\/td>-8.7<\/td>-20.5<\/td>11.8<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
31<\/td>12\/27\/10 @ NJN<\/td>7.1<\/td>-5.4<\/td>12.5<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
32<\/td>12\/28\/10 @ CLE<\/td>5.4<\/td>-7.4<\/td>12.8<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
33<\/td>12\/30\/10 vs. NYK<\/td>8.5<\/td>-2.4<\/td>10.9<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
34<\/td>01\/03\/11 vs. GSW<\/td>1.2<\/td>-12.9<\/td>14.1<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
35<\/td>01\/05\/11 vs. MIL<\/td>1.5<\/td>-1.7<\/td>3.2<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
36<\/td>01\/07\/11 vs. HOU<\/td>5.7<\/td>-7.0<\/td>12.7<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
37<\/td>01\/08\/11 @ DAL<\/td>24.7<\/td>2.1<\/td>22.6<\/td>W<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last week, I unveiled the first iteration of my . This week, I’ll revise and expand on it. The main thing I didn’t like about the chart was the 5-game moving averages. The games dropping off the far end of the moving average add just as much movement as the newest game adds. The solution? … [Read more…]<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,10,12],"tags":[57,54,22,24],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":345,"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107\/revisions\/345"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/godismyjudgeok.com\/DStats\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}