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Bayesian Power Ratings: NBA Finals Edition

May 27, 2011
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I have updated my Bayesian Power Ratings, using the techniques described in previous posts: On Bayesian Predictive Efficiency Ratings NBA Final Regular Season Bayesian Efficiency Ratings Here are the Bayesian Ratings, updated through the end of the conference finals:
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Chart: With or Without Inefficient Scorers

May 23, 2011
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Chart: With or Without Inefficient Scorers

This is just a quick chart dump, based upon Neil Paine’s research at Basketball Reference:
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A Review of Adjusted Plus/Minus and Stabilization

May 20, 2011
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A Review of Adjusted Plus/Minus and Stabilization

As I prepare to release my first work based on the Adjusted Plus/Minus and derivative methods, I felt it would be wise to write a plain-English review of the state-of-the-art of Adjusted Plus/Minus and its derivatives, or at least what is known in the public domain. What is Plus/Minus? Plus/Minus, at its core, simply compares how the team fares with the player on the...
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Round 2 Predictions

April 30, 2011
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Quickly (Updated WOWY Bayesian Ratings, roughly done due to lack of time:) CHI ATL MIA BOS OKC MEM LAL DAL 98.4% 1.6% 69.9% 30.1% 67.1% 32.9% 52.3% 47.7% CHI vs ATL MIA vs BOS OKC vs MEM LAL vs DAL 4 to 0 45.3% 4 to 0 10.3% 4 to 0 9.1% 4 to 0 5.4% 4 to 1 35.8% 4 to 1 22.4%...
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Visualization: The NBA’s 750 Best Offensive Games

April 28, 2011
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Visualization: The NBA’s 750 Best Offensive Games

Again using my “game value” metrics, here are the 750 best offensive performances this year, in graphical form: Notes: Some players are in there many times: Dwyane Wade has 17, though none are very easy to see.  Chris Paul and Lebron James had 16 each.  Kevin Love has 14, Kevin Durant 13 (wait–this is missing last night… should be 14), Carmelo Anthony has 13,...
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NBA Hex Colors

April 28, 2011
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I’ve been playing around with some charts, and I thought it might be nice to have the NBA team colors in hex format: Team Color1 Color2 Color3 Color4 ATL #1B1C48 #FF2728 #C2C3BD   BOS #00611B #000000     CHA #3E6085 #F26432 #D1D2D4   CHI #B00203 #000000     CLE #8B0034 #F9B433 #002859   DAL #006AB8 #BFC6CC #000000   DEN #6BADDF #002C61 #FDB726   DET...
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Visualization: The Brightest Stars in the NBA

April 27, 2011
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Visualization: The Brightest Stars in the NBA

I’m working on a new metric to quickly measure a player’s single-game contribution (a slightly more complex “game score”). I’ve tabulated the results for every game played this year, and that lets me do this: Here are the brightest stars in the NBA, by dominant superstar performances this year. I’m giving 3 points for a top 50 performance, 2 points for a top 100...
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Playoff Odds 2011

April 16, 2011
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Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011! (Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons) Seed Tm WOWY Shortened Combined ReStdev Win 1st Win 2nd Win Conf Win Title 1 CHI 10.40 0.16 10.56 11.9 96.85% 67.32% 44.34% 31.75% 8 IND -0.20 1.02 0.82 11.3 3.15% 0.31% 0.02%...
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DSMok1 on Twitter

To-Do List

  1. Salary and contract value discussions and charts
  2. Multi-year APM/RAPM with aging incorporated
  3. Revise ASPM based on multi-year RAPM with aging
  4. ASPM within-year stability/cross validation
  5. Historical ASPM Tableau visualizations
  6. Create Excel VBA recursive web scraping tutorial
  7. Comparison of residual exponents for rankings
  8. Comparison of various "value metrics" ability to "explain" wins
  9. Publication of spreadsheets used
  10. Work on using Bayesian priors in Adjusted +/-
  11. Work on K-Means clustering for player categorization
  12. Learn ridge regression
  13. Temporally locally-weighted rankings
  14. WOWY as validation of replacement level
  15. Revise ASPM with latest RAPM data
  16. Conversion of ASPM to" wins"
  17. Lineup Bayesian APM
  18. Lineup RAPM
  19. Learn SQL