## A Review of Adjusted Plus/Minus and Stabilization

As I prepare to release my first work based on the Adjusted Plus/Minus and derivative methods, I felt it would be wise to write a plain-English review of the state-of-the-art of Adjusted Plus/Minus and its derivatives, or at least what is known in the public domain. What is Plus/Minus? Plus/Minus, at its core, simply compares … [Read more…]

## Round 2 Predictions

Quickly (Updated WOWY Bayesian Ratings, roughly done due to lack of time:) CHI ATL MIA BOS OKC MEM LAL DAL 98.4% 1.6% 69.9% 30.1% 67.1% 32.9% 52.3% 47.7% CHI vs ATL MIA vs BOS OKC vs MEM LAL vs DAL 4 to 0 45.3% 4 to 0 10.3% 4 to 0 9.1% 4 to 0 … [Read more…]

## Visualization: The NBA’s 750 Best Offensive Games

Again using my “game value” metrics, here are the 750 best offensive performances this year, in graphical form: Notes: Some players are in there many times: Dwyane Wade has 17, though none are very easy to see. Chris Paul and Lebron James had 16 each. Kevin Love has 14, Kevin Durant 13 (wait–this is missing … [Read more…]

## NBA Hex Colors

I’ve been playing around with some charts, and I thought it might be nice to have the NBA team colors in hex format: Team Color1 Color2 Color3 Color4 ATL #1B1C48 #FF2728 #C2C3BD BOS #00611B #000000 CHA #3E6085 #F26432 #D1D2D4 CHI #B00203 #000000 CLE #8B0034 #F9B433 #002859 DAL #006AB8 … [Read more…]

## Visualization: The Brightest Stars in the NBA

I’m working on a new metric to quickly measure a player’s single-game contribution (a slightly more complex “game score”). I’ve tabulated the results for every game played this year, and that lets me do this: Here are the brightest stars in the NBA, by dominant superstar performances this year. I’m giving 3 points for a … [Read more…]

## Playoff Odds 2011

Here are my Bayesian WOWY + Tightened Rotations NBA projections for 2011! (Note: I’d still bump the Lakers up, personally… and I’m going to pick OKC>DEN for matchup and homerism reasons) Seed Tm WOWY Shortened Combined ReStdev Win 1st Win 2nd Win Conf Win Title 1 CHI 10.40 0.16 10.56 11.9 96.85% 67.32% 44.34% 31.75% … [Read more…]

## Tightened Rotations

After a ton of math and fudging, I’ve come up with these estimates for how much a “tightened rotation” will help each team in the playoffs. I took close games between playoff teams in the past 1.5 months, figured out the top rotation (MPG/player) for each team when everyone’s healthy, and took the max of … [Read more…]

## With-or-Without-You Compilation

A collection of With-or-Without-You tables for playoff teams. All regressions were stabilized with about 30 games worth of “average for the team” performance. Not all regressions have the last game of the season included. Oklahoma City Thunder: WOWY equally weighted over season Eff Mar Off Eff Def Eff Games Equiv+/- Team 9.4 8.1 -1.3 In … [Read more…]