APBRmetrics

[Mike G]

Somehow, I never saw these until today. Did we ever discuss them?

Here they are:

1st Team
Kobe
Lebron
Nowitzki
Nash
Shaq

When's the last time a player was 1st-team while playing only 1800 minutes (as Shaq did)? I guess Yao didn't do much better, and the incumbent rules.

2nd Team
Billups
Brand
Duncan
Wade
B Wallace

Ouch: still no Yao. And where is Garnett?

3rd Team
Carmelo
Iverson
Arenas
Marion
Yao

Along with KG, I have to say Pierce and Gasol got the shaft.

Is there a rule that says a guy has to start X games at a position, to be named? I'm sure it hasn't always been so. I know I'd rather have a team with Duncan at C / KG at F, than with TD and Ben.
_________________
`
36% of all statistics are wrong

[jeffpotts77]

I agree about KG, Pierce, and to a lesser extent, Gasol. I assume you're suggesting that Billups and B. Wallace should have been left off? I agree. This is another case of individuals being credited/blamed for team success/failure.

[asimpkins]

I wouldn't leave Billups off. He was the one Piston that truly had an outstanding year and that I felt actually deserved his All-Star spot. I'd probably even take him over Nash.

Adding to players who got screwed:
Bosh finished with a higher PER than Gasol and equal to Duncan. But like Garnett, was stuck on a losing team.

Illgauskas was a top production center. Not as good as O'Neal or Yao, but he actually played most of his games. He also got completely overlooked for the all star team.

[Mike G]

Actually, I like Billups. The 3 omitees I mentioned look like 2nd-teamers, so I mentioned them.
If it were up to me, I'd dump all 3 centers and call Duncan and Gasol C. KG or Brand, too. Carmelo doesn't look like as good a pick as Pierce, or even Carter.

The allstar selections, the MVP race, and now the all-NBA teams are heavily determined by team success. A great player with weak help just can't catch a break.

Garnett did place on the 2nd all-D team. I guess it's his O that's suspect.

Bosh played for a lousy defensive team, unlike Duncan and Gasol.
Z doesn't play enough MPG; but he was surely good enough to be an (eastern) allstar center.
_________________
`
36% of all statistics are wrong

[gabefarkas]

[asimpkins]

[bchaikin]

I assume you're suggesting that Billups and B. Wallace should have been left off? I agree.

nash and billups scored about the same (18-19 pts/g), were the top two overall shooting PGs (nash ScFG% of 62%, billups 59%), billups a slightly higher pts scored per zero pt team possession, got steals and blocks at about the same rates, both led their teams in on/off court pts diff...

but while nash had 127 more assists, billups had 106 less turnovers and was a much better defender. i'd take billups over nash in a heartbeat for 1st team...

simulation shows ben wallace generating as many wins as the best Cs - wallace, ming, shaq, and camby - on a per minute basis, yet he played about 1000 more minutes than those players...

billups and b.wallace were the key reasons the pistons won 64 games...

[jeffpotts77]

[mrgold]

I don't mean to hijack this thread, but bchaikan, I notice you often post results of simulations as definitive answers to debates and I don't nessecarily want to impugn their/your but I am curious as to what simulation you use and its assosciated methodology? This seems like very possibly an incredibly valuable technique but not one that I see discussed very much amongst basetball statheads. If there has been a past post dealing with this a link or some keywords to search for would be appreciated.

[asimpkins]

[bballfan72031]

The fact that Garnett and Pierce were left off is ridiculous. Gasol maybe should be on.

But I certainly wouldn't take Billups or Big Ben off.

I would probably bump Duncan to center and drop Shaq. The other center would be Yao probably, or if he didn't play enough, Dwight or Pau I suppose.

Wade should be on 1st team instead of Nash, probably. But we could argue about all kinds of things.

Overall, not the rest isn't too bad, you can move a few around or whatever. Just KG and Pierce being off is weird, in my opinion.

[bchaikin]

On a minute by minute basis, I'm shocked to hear that Ben Wallace,by himself, generated as many wins as Shaq. Admittedly, I don't know enough about how your simulation works to have a reasonable response to that. My hunch is that your simulation requires each player to be given a defensive rating. If so, what's Ben Wallace's defensive rating vs. Shaq's?

outside of steals, blocks, and defensive rebounding, the simulation rates players for how much they increase or decrease the FG% of the players they guard (a quantified guesstimate). for the 05-06 simulation shaq has a slightly better (lower) defensive FG% on a scale of -5.0% to +5.0% than does wallace. despite this simulation shows wallace still generates as many (if not more) wins than does shaq on a per minute basis. how can this be?...

take a look at the miami stats at www.82games.com, and look at the on/off pts diff for shaq and alonzo mourning. mourning's is slightly higher. does that mean that mourning is a better player than shaq? that the sample population size (minutes played) is too small to make an accurate statement one way or the other? mourning and wallace were somewhat similar players in 05-06 - both were low touches/min Cs that were very good defenders/rebounders/shot blockers. how could the heat play better with mourning than with shaq (shaq played 1800 minutes, mourning 1300) if shaq is a better player than mourning?...

when i run a simulation for the 05-06 heat with shaq playing 40 min/g wade (36 min/g) scores about 24 pts/g. with wallace playing 40 min/g its just over 28 pts/g. in real life he scored 27.2 pts/g playing 39 min/g. wade had a higher points scored per zero point team possession responsible for than did shaq in 05-06 (2.20 to 1.94), and with wallace wade gets more touches than with shaq, while at the same time wallace getting more rebounds, steals, and blocks than shaq with far less turnovers and significantly less fouls committed...

I don't mean to hijack this thread, but bchaikan, I notice you often post results of simulations as definitive answers to debates and I don't nessecarily want to impugn their/your but I am curious as to what simulation you use and its assosciated methodology? This seems like very possibly an incredibly valuable technique but not one that I see discussed very much amongst basetball statheads. If there has been a past post dealing with this a link or some keywords to search for would be appreciated.

a copy of the DOS simulation can be found in the files sections of the old APBR and APBR_analysis discussion groups, or at www.bballsports.com, albeit with older teams..

[tHe_pEsTiLeNcE]

is there a version of your sim for macintosh?
_________________
I'm so sick I be terminally ill

[bchaikin]

is there a version of your sim for macintosh?

unfortunately no....

[deepak]