Joined: 30 Dec 2004 Posts: 410 Location: Near Philadelphia, PA
Posted: Wed Sep 13, 2006 6:51 am Post subject:
deepak_e wrote:
How much worse are the opponents the Dream Team faced compared to the ones the US Team just faced? The efficiency numbers tell us that the Dream Team was far more efficient on offense and defense against the opponent they faced. Is there a way to project what kind of efficiency numbers they'd have if they played against the current crop of international teams? I can't imagine it would have looked that good.
for an estimate -- that being that the gap has closed from about 40 pts to under 10. That's the gap between the average intl team and us. It'd be a different exercise to look at the gap between us and the better intl teams... _________________ Dean Oliver
Author, Basketball on Paper
http://www.basketballonpaper.com
for an estimate -- that being that the gap has closed from about 40 pts to under 10. That's the gap between the average intl team and us. It'd be a different exercise to look at the gap between us and the better intl teams...
The Dream Team played 3 (of 8) games against Top-3 teams, 6/8 against Top-8, and 8/8 against Top-10. In Japan, Team USA played 2/9 against Top-4, 3/9 against Top-8 and 7/9 against Top-12. There are more weak teams in the Worlds than in the Olympics. That's something to keep in mind when doing these comparisons.
Another way to look at it. Croatia'92 had 3 NBA-starter quality players in Petrovic, Kukoc and Radja; Lithuania had 2 (Sabonis and Marciulonis). Spain'06 has just Gasol; Greece has none; Argentina 2 or 3 (Ginobili, Nocioni, maybe Scola). Apparently, the improvement hasn't been in the top players. The role players, then? I believe so, together with defense. I don't have stats to back it up, but IMHO the improvement of European basketball has happened mainly at the defensive end. All those international stars in 1992, from Petrovic to Oscar, were known for their scoring ability, but most of them couldn't defend. However, when I look at the evolution of offensive efficiency, FG% and turnovers in the Spanish domestique league, I don't see a significant change in the last 15 years, so the comment of offense vs defense may just be my subjective view.
Does anybody have access to the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers for the '04 Olympic team that Larry Brown coached -- and perhaps more importantly, how they ranked compared to their competitors?
It would be interesting to see if Krzyzewski's '06 team significantly improved or degraded in either area. Was Larry Brown's team a better defensive squad?
From these two games (and given the scores of the other games), I think we would have to conclude that the Dream Team was significantly more efficient offensively than the current Team USA. It is also interesting that in these two games, the defensive efficiency of the Dream was very good, but not great.
I watched another two Dream Team games, with better defense this time. USA-Germany in the first round:
Dream Team: 111 points, 82 possessions, 135 offensive efficiency, 14 turnovers
Germany: 68 points, 83 possessions, 82 offensive efficiency (53 in first half, 112 in second)
Germany didn't know how to get to the basket in the first half. Only Schrempf was producing for them. Early in the second half USA threw a zone defense for a few minutes with Ewing and Robinson on court, but Germany scored in every possession. Germany played some zone too, with same result. The coach making the color commentary for the game said the two best aspects of the Dream Team game so far had been (1) defense, and (2) fastbreaks, which USA made even after a FGM.
The semifinal was USA-Lithuania
Dream Team: 127 points, 86 possessions, 148 offensive efficiency (120 and 173), 4 turnovers
Lithuania: 76 points, 85 possessions, 89 offensive efficiency (75 and 102)
Again, in the first half Lithuania had to resort to 3 pointers, which they mostly missed. In the second half, Kurtinaitis started to hit them and Marciulionis showed how good a penetrator he was. Sabonis didn't play much, but his size created USA troubles to score inside.
Average off-def efficiency in those 4 games was 145-96.
I've also watched the USA-Greece semi from Toronto'94. USA first half was awful, shooting 30% from the field. Eventually, they still won by ~40, but that team, and they way they played, had nothing to with the Dream Team. The Barcelona'92 guys were simply amazing, I had forgotten how good they were. I don't think is fair to compare the Japan team (or any team, for that matter) with the Dream Team. The 94 team, and its outstanding 3p shooting line (103/222, 46.4%, in 8 games), would be a much better reference.
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