Posted: Wed Feb 16, 2005 6:10 pm Post subject: Did Larry Brown ruin AI?
This is something I e-mailed with my fellow 76ers fans about after AI's 60 point game last week. Wondering thoughts from people who understand stats better than I do...
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I can't help but think that Larry Brown "ruined" AI, as much as you can ruin a league MVP and Hall-of-Famer. AI's rookie year, when he played the point, was insane. 23.5 PPG, 7.5 APG, 4RBG, 2.1 SPG on 41% shooter, taking about 20 shots per game. His glaring weakness was TO's, at 4.4 APG. His second season, he svored 22 PPG on 46% with 6.2 APG and 3.1 TO's. He averaged about 17.5 shots a game that season.
Look at that path -- Less points, but a better shot selection. Less assists, but a 2-1 A/TO ratio, which is pretty damn good for someone controlling the ball that much on a weak team. And he showed an inclination to look for his shot less than he did the season before.
Then Coach Brown takes over. He feuds with AI about his Point Guardiness and moves AI to the 2 guard and puts in Eric Snow at the point. AI's shots per game go up dramatically -- 22, 25, 25, 28 -- over the next few years. His shooting percentage hovers around 41 percent, dipping below 40 the year he shoots the most. His assists drop and his turnovers increase. Also, as a defender, he was usually forced to guard 2-guards. AI has always had a decent amount of steals, mostly from picking the passing lanes, and is known for his speed but he did give up height while guarding jump shooters.
Now look at this season -- his first season really back as the team's primary PG. He's still shooting a fair clip. But his assists are the highest in his career, his assists are 4 per game. Look at his box score And, seemingly every night, he contributes somehow in the box score. AI is always going to get his points -- he gets to the free throw line enough times to guarantee at least 20 a game -- but on his off nights, he is looking for his teammates. The night he's feeling his shot, he's going for it. But on the night's Korver or The Other AI are doing well, he's moving the ball to them. He does, however, still turn the ball over at a pretty high rate.
If AI wasn't moved to the 2 guard his 3rd year in the league, I can't help but wonder what kind of player he would have become. I think it makes sense that both his ball control and shot selection would have improved annually -- the numbers this season back that up to an extend.
Basically, I think he would have ended up as a better Kevin Johnson or Isiah Thomas type. A scoring PG who also set up his teammates.
Instead, he became what he became. An outstanding player with some major flaws to his game. I blame Larry Brown for not having patience, but AI did end up leading a team to the NBA Finals.
Year Efficiency Coach
1996-97 19.33 Johnny Davis
1997-98 20.03 Larry Brown
1998-99 19.88 Larry Brown
1999-00 18.87 Larry Brown
2000-01 22.27 Larry Brown
2001-02 21.88 Larry Brown
2002-03 20.85 Larry Brown
2003-04 18.19 Randy Ayers/Chris Ford
2004-05 23.70 Jim O'Brien
It's an interesting theoretical. Here are my 10 best AI comps for the 1997-98 season:
Code:
Player Year Sim
-----------------------------
Isiah Thomas 82-83 98.4
Steve Francis 99-00 97.1
Stephon Marbury 98-99 95.0
Damon Stoudamire 95-96 94.3
Quintin Dailey 82-83 93.9
Rod Strickland 88-89 92.9
Willie Anderson 88-89 92.8
Kenny Anderson 92-93 92.3
Mike Bibby 99-00 92.2
Otis Birdsong 77-78 91.8
Mostly point guards, and the shooting guards all had far, far worse passing ratings (but were considered similar nonetheless). So the important question is how did these guys fare the following season in comparison to AI? Here are the relevant categories:
Code:
2PT Pass Ps
78.3 79.8 125.3
96.7 108.8 98.5
Iverson started using tons more possessions, sacrificing his two-point efficiency. The comparable players saw little or no change in these categories. His Pass rating also sunk, while the comparable players became slightly better passers (Thomas and Stoudamire, who got better teammates, saw dramatic improvements).
Would AI have been better staying on the Marbury/Thomas career path? That's very difficult to say. He definitely would have been different. I really really really liked moving him off the ball at the time, but (a). I was 16 and (b.) it made room for my favorite player, Eric Snow, so I was biased.
It's an interesting theoretical. Here are my 10 best AI comps for the 1997-98 season:
Code:
Player Year Sim
-----------------------------
Isiah Thomas 82-83 98.4
Steve Francis 99-00 97.1
Stephon Marbury 98-99 95.0
Damon Stoudamire 95-96 94.3
Quintin Dailey 82-83 93.9
Rod Strickland 88-89 92.9
Willie Anderson 88-89 92.8
Kenny Anderson 92-93 92.3
Mike Bibby 99-00 92.2
Otis Birdsong 77-78 91.8
Mostly point guards, and the shooting guards all had far, far worse passing ratings (but were considered similar nonetheless). So the important question is how did these guys fare the following season in comparison to AI? Here are the relevant categories:
Code:
2PT Pass Ps
78.3 79.8 125.3
96.7 108.8 98.5
Iverson started using tons more possessions, sacrificing his two-point efficiency. The comparable players saw little or no change in these categories. His Pass rating also sunk, while the comparable players became slightly better passers (Thomas and Stoudamire, who got better teammates, saw dramatic improvements).
Would AI have been better staying on the Marbury/Thomas career path? That's very difficult to say. He definitely would have been different. I really really really liked moving him off the ball at the time, but (a). I was 16 and (b.) it made room for my favorite player, Eric Snow, so I was biased.
I guess the more important thing is whether or not the move helped the Sixers team. Eric Snow and Theo Ratliff got traded to the Sixers within a few weeks of each other and the team really, really developed from there. And the team had a hot run for a few years.
I just wonder what would have happened to that team if Larry Brown didn't insist on making a trade every 3.2 hours. Getting Snow and Theo was nice. So was turning a broken Theo into a serviceable Dikembe. But then it was non-stop player turnover from there. I would've liked for them to have held onto Larry Hughes, for example.
I guess, with the hypothetical, if AI was allowed to play as a 1, could the Sixers have built an even better team than the one they did? Shooting Guards and 3's are the easiest positions to fill. I think the Sixers could have ended up with a Bonzi Wells type at SG and/or a Doug Christie type at SF. Or turned up a hidden gem like Eric Snow. A team like that, with AI improving his all-around game each season, would have been interesting. But hindisght is 20/20...
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