APBRmetrics

[Mike G]

Subtracting rates for this year from those of last year, and multiplying by minutes/36, here are this seasons biggest gainers in productivity:

Imp. Player . . . . 2005-06 - 2004-05
175 Parker,Smush LAL 21.2 - 10.3 Phe
168 Diaw,Boris Phe 27.5 - 15.1 Atl
149 West,David NO 26.6 - 18.0 NO
141 Camby,Marcus Den 38.5 - 31.1 Den
109 Davis,Ricky Bos 28.6 - 23.9 Bos
101 Stevenson,Deshawn Orl 19.2 - 14.2 Orl
90 Jamison,Antawn Was 31.9 - 27.3 Was
88 Brand,Elton LAC 40.0 - 36.3 LAC
80 Howard,Dwight Orl 31.0 - 27.3 Orl
79 Wallace,Gerald Cha 28.7 - 22.6 Cha

I guess Gerald W was pretty good last year. Players with fewer games (minutes, actually) will be understated. Howard and Camby are the best rebounders in the league. Jamison is also rebounding like crazy.

Here are the next 10:

76 Salmons,John Phl 20.2 - 15.0 Phl
73 Battier,Shane Mem 26.9 - 23.5 Mem
73 Barbosa,Leandro Phe 28.7 - 18.5 Phe
70 Mourning, Alonzo Mia 28.7 - 25.0 Mia
69 Bosh,Chris Tor 31.0 - 28.4 Tor
69 Hudson,Troy Min 25.5 - 19.3 Min
68 Telfair,Sebastia Por 20.5 - 16.3 Por
65 Pierce,Paul Bos 38.6 - 35.9 Bos
62 Diop,Desagana Dal 17.7 - 11.4 Cle
60 Jones,James Phe 20.6 - 15.8 Ind


The bottom of the List (still looking for the opposite of 'improved')

-152 Hughes,Larry Cle 23.8 - 33.8
-143 Artest,Ron Ind 28.9 - 39.0
-123 Carter,Vince NJ 29.0 - 38.4
-118 Daniels,Antonio Was 12.4 - 25.3
-113 Kirilenko,Andrei Uta 25.4 - 37.2
-109 Marbury,Stephon NY 26.9 - 34.1
-102 Rose,Jalen Tor 17.9 - 26.1
-100 Chandler,Tyson Chi 18.0 - 26.9
-94 Garnett,Kevin Min 40.0 - 46.3
-92 Hart,Jason Sac 10.2 - 25.3

Artest's numbers are unfairly compared to his rocket start last year; still he's off from the year before that. Garnett isn't rebounding or assisting like he used to; nor shooting as much.

-90 Jackson,Stephen Ind 20.7 - 27.6 Ind
-87 Mason,Desmond NO 14.8 - 23.5 Mil
-86 Simmons,Bobby Mil 19.1 - 26.8 LAC
-84 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 37.3 - 43.0 Dal
-82 Ginobili,Manu SA 28.8 - 36.5 SA
-81 Dunleavy,Mike GS 17.2 - 23.7 GS
-80 Haslem,Udonis Mia 19.7 - 25.5 Mia
-77 Jones,Damon Cle 17.5 - 25.6 Mia
-76 Jones,Fred Ind 13.4 - 21.7 Ind
-74 Payton,Gary Mia 17.2 - 23.6 Bos

[jemagee]

Instead of the opposite of improved why not use the opposite of most and go with "least" improved?

[gabefarkas]

because that would imply very low positive numbers, not large negative numbers.

[Mike G]

I'm shocked to find Lebron James in the negative, (#24 in the 'unimproved' list) relative to his rates last year. Here are his per-game averages, then and now.

year Min. Pts. Reb. Ast Stl Blk
2005 42.4 27.2 7.4 7.2 2.2 0.7
2006 40.8 28.9 5.8 4.9 1.6 1.2

He's getting another 1.7 pts and 0.5 blocks. Giving up 1.6 reb, 2.3 ast, and 0.6 Stl. Turnovers are down a bit, so we can call Stl/TO/Blk a wash.

It's last year's rebound and assist rates he's failing to either replicate or make up somewhere else. Cleveland ranks near the bottom in Ast/G, and in Ast/FG. Last year they had 3 guys with better assist rates than any of this year's players.

He's becoming 1-dimensional. He's peaked already.

[John Hollinger]

Interesting you bring up LeBron. My projections had him about one PER point lower than a year ago, which shocked me. But I think there may be a Plexiglass Principle for players as well as teams (he said without researching it) ... his jump between Year 1 and Year 2 was enormous, implying that the Year 2 numbers might have been greater than his "true" ability at the time.

[KD]

And LeBron's return to normalcy started at about the midway point of last March. The last 4-5 weeks of his season weren't too hot.

[Kevin Pelton]

[Mike G]

[Ben]

Personally, I don't really see the drop off. He's scoring at a higher rate while shooting a higher true percentage. He's also scaled back his minutes just a tad (probably due to blowouts). His role may have changed and personally, I tend to like guys who fill the box score like he did last year, but I don't believe he's gotten worse. It would seem that PER would agree as well as he's at 28.1 this year compared to 25.7 last year. That's a few points ahead of Jordan at the same age.

[Mike G]

Ben, you are largely correct; I had tinkered with the parameters, and this had the effect of beating down the ratings of guys who score more and do less of other things. I will edit the list when I get a break.

So Lebron is still a bit off, but not in the top 100 'decliners'. Sorry about that.

[Ben]

[dlirag]

By how much has Delonte West improved?

[Mike G]

[Dan Rosenbaum]

[Mike G]

Ignore the first list I posted; this one's updated. Here are the big improvers, and their '06 - '05 rates that went into this calc.

282 Parker,Smush LAL 25.2 - 10.3 Phe
233 West,David NO 29.2 - 18.0 NO
209 Diaw,Boris Phe 27.4 - 15.1 Atl
182 Brand,Elton LAC 44.5 - 36.3 LAC
179 Camby,Marcus Den 40.2 - 31.1 Den
156 Wade,Dwyane Mia 44.7 - 37.9 Mia
151 Davis,Ricky Bos 30.3 - 23.9 Bos
146 Bosh,Chris Tor 34.8 - 28.4 Tor
143 Howard,Dwight Orl 34.7 - 27.3 Orl
141 Pierce,Paul Bos 42.4 - 35.9 Bos

Smush probably had better numbers in an earlier season, but I haven't dug them up yet. Celtics Davis and Pierce are both rebounding from off-years. Youngsters-continuing-to-rise are West, Wade, Bosh, and Howard. Diaw is the outa-nowhere guy.

138 Stevenson,Deshawn Orl 21.5 - 14.2 Orl
136 Redd,Michael Mil 36.1 - 28.9 Mil
113 Battier,Shane Mem 29.2 - 23.5 Mem
112 Harris,Devin Dal 27.2 - 19.7 Dal
101 Williams,Maurice Mil 29.7 - 22.7 Mil
101 Harrington,Al Atl 30.0 - 24.2 Atl
98 Parker,Tony SA 36.2 - 31.1 SA
98 Wallace,Gerald Cha 29.8 - 22.6 Cha
96 Telfair,Sebastian Por 22.2 - 16.3 Por
95 Odom,Lamar LAL 33.5 - 29.4 LAL

I need to dig up TJ Ford's last known numbers; as is, I have him improving over 'nothing' last year. That would give the Bucks 3 guys in this grouping, and a large part of the reason for their resurgence.

95 Jamison,Antawn Was 31.9 - 27.3
93 Duhon,Chris Chi 23.5 - 17.9
93 Deng,Luol Chi 29.5 - 23.7
91 Iverson,Allen Phl 41.9 - 38.5
91 Smith,J.R. NO 25.1 - 18.1
87 Wells,Bonzi Sac 29.0 - 24.7
86 Diop,Desagana Dal 19.3 - 11.4
84 Pachulia,Zaza Atl 25.4 - 20.6
81 Hudson,Troy Min 27.8 - 19.3
81 Jones,James Phe 22.2 - 15.8
80 Billups,Chauncey Det 37.3 - 32.6
79 Anderson,Derek Hou 24.2 - 19.2

This concludes the list of guys who have added some 4 'extra' Pts per game, and/or Reb, and/or Ast, ...

The average 'continuing' NBA player has lost 0.7 on his rating from last year. But he's also 'improved' by 1.8. This is due to the miracle of "as you play better, you get more minutes". In other words, unimprovers don't subtract as much, due to reduced minutes.

Bottom of 'improved' list:

-78 Jones,Fred Ind 15.6 - 21.7 Ind
-78 Marbury,Stephon NY 30.5 - 34.1 NY
-79 Dampier,Erick Dal 19.0 - 24.6 Dal
-80 Simmons,Bobby Mil 21.6 - 26.8 LAC
-80 Kirilenko,Andrei Uta 31.3 - 37.2 Uta
-80 Bibby,Mike Sac 27.1 - 30.8 Sac
-82 Wright,Lorenzen Mem 18.0 - 24.1 Mem
-83 Jackson,Jim Phe 9.6 - 19.9 Phe
-83 Lafrentz,Raef Bos 21.9 - 27.7 Bos
-87 Marshall,Donyell Cle 23.6 - 29.9 Tor

Pacers held on to the wrong Jones. Marbury is climbing out of this zone; AK, too. Where did Raef's Reb go? Donyell's shot?

-88 Carter,Vince NJ 33.5 - 38.4
-94 Jones,Damon Cle 18.1 - 25.6
-102 Haslem,Udonis Mia 20.3 - 25.5
-110 Chandler,Tyson Chi 19.2 - 26.9
-111 Hart,Jason Sac 10.5 - 25.3
-112 Mason,Desmond NO 16.2 - 23.5
-122 Rose,Jalen Tor 18.3 - 26.1
-123 Artest,Ron Ind 31.6 - 39.0
-152 Daniels,Antonio Was 12.0 - 25.3
-188 Hughes,Larry Cle 24.4 - 33.8

Cavs have 3 of the 11-biggest dropoffs.

Thanks all, for your indulgence.