Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2005 5:35 pm Post subject: player typology
has anyone constructed a detailed player typology using segmentation, cluster or factor analysis, etc.?
i was thinking about the examples of claritas inc.'s groups for neighborhoods and households, the myers briggs personality types, the cluster analysis of voter types and thought it might be intersting to see or try to construct one for the NBA with some mix of position, age, stats, skill sets, style of play, salary/contract length and possibly other attributes.
Last edited by jambalaya on Mon Apr 04, 2005 6:31 pm; edited 6 times in total
It would be interesting, but considering the trouble we have getting accurate data on player weights, I don't think we'll ever be able to get personality measures. _________________ ed
Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2005 5:47 pm Post subject: clarification
though my examples have a fairly heavy emphasis on personality, i wasnt focused on that with respect to the nba. i was focused on their game and the attributes that help define it.
the article about the blazer draft system seems to have a strong emphasis on personality. i assume it was to try to reassure blazers fans that the year old plan to try to draft just good character guys will continue and deepen that the system/mystery guy story slipped or was purposedly leaked.
on personality inclusion is a typology of those in the league perhaps you could include such things as role on team, teammate type, streaky vs. calm, clutch vs. fade, degree of professionalism, playoff experience, quality of pre-nba coaching, considered selfish by other players or respected as team-oriented, flexible, coachable vs. plays his own way regardless, been a star or the man in the past vs. always a role player, stays in offense vs. creative, basketball I.Q./ real-time thinker, etc.
my initial thought is 3-7 types per position, then subgroups based on quality and perhaps other criteria.
Last edited by jambalaya on Tue Apr 05, 2005 10:39 am; edited 9 times in total
Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2005 6:23 pm Post subject: Re: initial brainstorm of types
jambalaya wrote:
to give a better idea of what i am reaching for, here is my initial list of major types:
Pure point
Drive and kick
Shooting point
Tweener
Backup point
Veteran stabilizer
[...]
the subgroups might get more much more specific and perhaps have colorful descriptive names.
Ah. What you're proposing has in fact been tried before. I can't find the cite right now, but someone used some complicated algorithm to determine player "roles" (bangers, walls, dishers, etc). They came up with 7 or 8 player types. I couldn't duplicate the results, but the idea of classifying players into roles is a good idea.
One way to do it would be to make an exaustive list of player attributes (passing, scoring, rebounding, etc), and score each player on those attributes. The player's classification would be a result of all those scores. This approach would work best if each player would begin with a "zero" score across the board. That is, that our prior knowledge of the player's position or passing ability or whatever would not inform the scores he gets for each attribtue -- so that, in theory, we could get a 7'2 "disher" or something.
This is doable to some extent. I'll see what I can hack up. _________________ ed
Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2005 6:37 pm Post subject: followup
ok thanks for the reply. look forward to hearing more.
you're right it could be organized on factor analysis of major skills instead of being segmented right off the top by position i showed above. many possible approaches.
7-8 groups in that past study isnt a lot but if you find it i'd be interested in seeing it. i was thinking somewhere around 25 main groups might be ideal balance point for classifying a league of 400+ guys. but just getting started on thinking about the topic today.
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 460 Location: Washington, DC
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2005 4:38 am Post subject:
I seem to recall Kevin Pelton doing something like this -- using stats to identify position profiles. I think he came up with 12 or 13 "types" but my memory could be faulty here. Kevin...
I definitely think there's a real value in identifying roles necessary for a team, and coming up with a way to evaluate how well guys fill those roles. Sorta like what Seattle seems to have done this season. _________________ If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough.
I think superstar players would supercede some of the classifications. The first example that comes to mind is Shaq -- which C role would you call him? I guess Post Scorer, but does that really cover it?
In general, I like this idea. I used to be really into Myers-Briggs and Keirsey stuff, so I definitely see where you're coming from. _________________ Statistics are like a woman's bikini. What it reveals can be fascinating, but what it conceals is ultimately critical!
Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 460 Location: Washington, DC
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2005 8:31 am Post subject:
The superstar player may be a category unto itself, perhaps with a few minor gradations. _________________ If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough.
I seem to recall Kevin Pelton doing something like this -- using stats to identify position profiles. I think he came up with 12 or 13 "types" but my memory could be faulty here. Kevin...
I came up with statistical skills and identified which of them players had, but I never grouped them. It's subtly different, but frankly, I don't find the concept of groups particularly useful. There are certain skills teams need to have filled, but whether their shooting specialist also rebounds or passes or plays defense doesn't really seem to matter to me. *shurg*
I came up with statistical skills and identified which of them players had, but I never grouped them. It's subtly different, but frankly, I don't find the concept of groups particularly useful. There are certain skills teams need to have filled, but whether their shooting specialist also rebounds or passes or plays defense doesn't really seem to matter to me. *shurg*
It matters to me. I want to do away with traditional positional categories. Shaquille O'Neal and Rafael Araujo and Dikembe Mutombo do not play the same position, regardless of what it says on the scoresheet. Or rather, they don't play the same role, which I think is more important. _________________ ed
you're right it could be organized on factor analysis of major skills instead of being segmented right off the top by position i showed above.
Maybe you can help me get started. Let's separate offense and defense to begin with, and go from there. Skills to fill:
Offense
Passing
Shooting
Rebounding
Free Throw Shooting
Picks and Screens
Defense
On the Ball (I don't know what to call this)
Help
Steals
Rebounding
We can include subcategories:
Offense
Passing
Assists
Turnovers
Shooting
3-pointers
Midrange
inside
Rebounding
Free Throw Shooting
FT%
FTA
Picks and Screens
Defense
On the Ball
Opp shooting%
Opp FTA
Help
Opp shooting%
Opp FTA
Blocks
Steals
Individual Steals
Opp TOs while player is on the floor
Rebounding
Individual Reb
Team Reb while player is on the floor
Anything else?
Some of these would be hard, if not impossible, to score. What I'm after right now is an exaustive list of things to look for -- a place to start.
jambalaya wrote:
7-8 groups in that past study isnt a lot but if you find it i'd be interested in seeing it. i was thinking somewhere around 25 main groups might be ideal balance point for classifying a league of 400+ guys. but just getting started on thinking about the topic today.
As you can see above, a preliminary list of about 10 categories can be subdivided almost infinitely. What I envision is not cubbyholes to place individual players, but a player score for each category: for example, Chris Bosh would get a score like this on defense:
Code:
On the Ball 5
Opp shooting% 4
Opp FTA 7
Help 8
Opp shooting% 6
Opp FTA 9
Blocks 7
Steals 3
Individual Stl 2
Opp TOs 3
Rebounding 4
Individual Reb 3
Team Reb 4
With the scores being out of ten. All numbers made up on the spot as an example. _________________ ed
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2005 1:59 pm Post subject: categories
i think you have the main ones.
maybe fouls committed. minutes (and perhaps games) played.
maybe crunch FG%. probably not %own shot blocked.
i wondered about adding PER or off and def. retgs.
i wouldnt use +/- for this i dont think.
if you have picks, i think picks that lead to baskets are as valuable as assists. and i'd probably focus on just them rather than all picks and screens (perhaps that is what you meant for this?).
you said: "What I envision is not cubbyholes to place individual players, but a player score for each category"
i hear you, in my zip+4 analogy that part is similar. and of course it doesnt have to be just 9 but trying to constrain the number seems wise because otherwise it become the full database again, just with standardized scores. but that would be fine too i guess. it just wouldnt be a simplifying typology anymore. but folks could make various typologies from it as they wish.
salary could be group this way too with a little fitting using ranges ($1.6-$3 million, $3-5million, etc.) . size (maybe group 6"2-6'3 guys together and 6'-4"- 6'-5" together and so on). age, years of experience could be clustered 1 to 9 for simplicity of viewing with a little finesse.
i noticed usatoday released their under and over paid players based on performance recently. with ordinal league stat ranks.
Shaquille O'Neal and Rafael Araujo and Dikembe Mutombo do not play the same position, regardless of what it says on the scoresheet. Or rather, they don't play the same role, which I think is more important.
They all defend opposing centers, which to me trumps anything else. Who you can guard is more important than how well you can guard; you need people who can defend each position and certain offensive skills, but it doesn't really matter which of the defenders has which skills.
But I should point out I'm against typology as a blueprint for team-building. Fundamentally, all you're doing is labeling similarity sets, and I'm a huge fan of using similarity scores.
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