Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1850 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2007 8:59 am Post subject: Most Improved 2008
The 'improved' column is the difference in standardized summary rates ('08/'07 T rates), multiplied by minutes played this year. Farmar is about twice as good as he was last year; RJeff is 50% better, and has played almost twice the minutes. In 587 minutes, he's gotten 172 more (Pts+Reb+etc) production units than he got in a typical 587 minutes last season.
Now here are the biggest regressors, slippers, faders. Of course, if a guy has hardly played, he can't have a great dropoff in his (minutes*productivity).
Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1850 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2007 10:29 am Post subject:
Here's a partial breakdown of teams with a net of >150 or <-100 productions from their veterans. Players improved or regressed enough to create (+/-) 50 units.
Sorry about the formatting; East on the left, West at right (kinda backwards).
Code:
impr Eastern tm 2008 2007 impr Western tm 2008 2007
376 Bos 336 Min
102 Garnett,Kevin Bos 44.5 37.4 89 Jaric,Marko Min 22.7 13.9
76 Perkins,Kendrick Bos 24.9 17.5 68 Mccants,Rashad Min 19.5 11.7
59 House,Eddie Bos 28.4 20.6 56 Walker,Antoine Min 23.9 17.0
247 Ind 209 Den
87 Granger,Danny Ind 26.5 21.0 73 Martin,Kenyon Den 23.9 15.8
85 Williams,Shawne Ind 24.2 13.7 59 Kleiza,Linas Den 23.3 16.8
80 Dunleavy,Mike Ind 27.2 21.8 53 Carter,Anthony Den 20.6 7.4
-86 O'Neal,Jermaine Ind 23.0 32.2
181 Por
220 Det 104 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 30.8 23.7
55 Hayes,Jarvis Det 23.8 16.0 60 Webster,Martell Por 19.9 15.8
53 Maxiell,Jason Det 25.4 19.2
180 NO
156 Was 97 Paul,Chris NO 38.5 31.6
93 Butler,Caron Was 31.9 26.4 65 West,David NO 33.3 29.0
68 Haywood,Brendan Was 27.5 21.2 58 Ely,Melvin NO 21.8 10.3
67 Blatche,Andray Was 26.1 18.3 -52 Stojakovic,Peja NO 22.4 25.5
-53 Stevenson,Deshaw Was 15.3 19.7
-70 Arenas,Gilbert Was 26.0 33.7
-50 Alston,Rafer Hou 19.9 23.3
71 Felton,Raymond Cha 27.7 22.1 -58 Battier,Shane Hou 16.1 19.5
-57 Wallace,Gerald Cha 25.5 29.7 -116 Ming,Yao Hou 36.5 43.0
-60 Brezec,Primoz Cha 7.9 18.9 -291 Hou
-88 Cha
-58 Williams,Jason Mia 19.6 23.4
-84 Wade,Dwyane Mia 30.4 40.9
-261 Mia
-94 Randolph,Zach NY 27.3 35.5
-123 Richardson,Quent NY 14.9 25.0
-342 NY
-68 Wallace, Ben Chi 18.7 24.7
-126 Gordon,Ben Chi 20.6 29.7
-128 Hinrich,Kirk Chi 17.3 28.6
-400 Chi
At first glance, it seems a lot of team disappointments and surprises are explained by these few entries. _________________ `
There's no I in analysys.
Last edited by Mike G on Thu Feb 28, 2008 5:02 am; edited 2 times in total
I'm not sure if you ran the entire league or not...or how much work this is...but do you have the sixers roster? My 3 other biggest itnerests after Williams are Green, Dalembert and Miller.
How is Zydrunas Ilgauskas a negative? He's playing more minutes, his shooting percentage is up, his rebounding is significantly up, and his blocks are up. Admitedly, his assists are down and his TOs are up but, to me, he looks like a better player this season.
Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1850 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2007 11:23 pm Post subject:
Mostly, he's just shooting less, about 1.0 fewer TSA per 40 min. This coupled with Cle allowing 10% more points this year, his relative scoring is down by about 19%. Last year he had already slipped a notch in his scoring role, particularly his FTA: barely half what they'd been just the previous year.
Another way to say it is that last year, he scored about 12.5% of all points scored while he was on the floor -- he was at 125% of average scoring pace. This year, he scores 10%: he has stepped down to being an average scorer.
You're right that his rebounding is up; I had an inconsistency in my calcs between last year and this. Z is still reading -44, though. _________________ `
There's no I in analysys.
Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1850 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2007 1:23 pm Post subject:
jorje29 wrote:
...based on NBA efficiency recap. It's not the best, I know, but it's a strong indication...
'NBA efficiency' really is per-game totals, is it not? Does this actually have anything to do with efficiency?
Beno Udrih (#3) has slightly improved, and his mpg has tripled.
At #5, I see Jeff Green. #9 is Luis Scola. These guys may be improved, but they are NBA rookies. _________________ `
There's no I in analysys.
Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2007 5:17 pm Post subject: Bug fixed
Mike G
You were absolutely right that Jeff Green and Luis Scola are rookies, so they don't have to be included in this list. It was a bug. I fixed it.
The list includes per game averages and is sorted by NBA efficiency recap difference ( this year's "eff" - last year's "eff" ), in descending order. The formula of NBA efficiency recap can be viewed, if you click on "stats glossary".
Powe is like Garnett, for 44 total minutes. 8 of these 11 are shooting better than last year.
The total 'extras' are 476 -- equivalent to about 260 points (in differential). In 20 G, that's +13 PPG: their entire Pt-diff. _________________ `
There's no I in analysys.
That bottom bracket is basically their starting lineup. This team's 'extras' sum to -376; they're getting about 10 fewer PPG than what these guys were worth last year. They've been outscored by 4.0, so they 'should be' +6.0 _________________ `
There's no I in analysys.
The Celtics are outperforming all expectations. This can be attributed to more effective production from virtually everyone.
Not so sure about this. Boston has outperformed expectations wildly on the defensive end. They are currently over 3 standard deviations better than the average defense. If this were maintained, it would be the best defense of all time, adjusting for season. Their offense has been mildly above expectations, but their defense is outrageous. I'm not sure how much of that is captured in the numbers you're publishing.
Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1850 Location: Delphi, Indiana
Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 1:58 pm Post subject:
Good comment. I don't try to separate O and D. Players' scoring rates are multiplied by (100/OppPPG) and by (Eff%/.527). Compare the Big3's rates, in plain PPG and adjusted (Sco) rate, this year and last year:
They are actually scoring 15 PPG less than last year. But the Celts are allowing just 86.3 PPG. Garnett is hugely more efficient this year, and his Sco rate is actually higher: He scores a greater % of the points scored in Celtics games.
Their combined Sco rates are just 1.7 less than their sum last year. Ray Allen, in huge minutes for a weak defensive club, actually had 'inflated' PPG last season. While they aren't taking as many shots, their scoring is just as impactful this year.
The concept of scaling Scoring to TmPPG (and or OppPPG) is analagous to the way Rebound Rate is generated. For that, too, Opponent averages are more important (in what I call Reb rate.) _________________ `
There's no I in analysys.
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