APBRmetrics

davis21wylie2121 · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 510 Location: Atlanta, GA

Sorry for the lack of BoP updates recently -- I've been busy, and besides, I'm waiting for the regular season to be over before I update again.

Anyway, I thought you guys might be interested in something else I did over at AGM. It's not pro basketball per se, but I used Ed's Win Expectancy formula on the play-by-play of last night's NCAA Championship Game. Twice did Memphis have a WProb of >97%, including 98.3% just before Chalmers' game-tying 3-pointer, but they let it slip away. Here's the graph:

When the playoffs start, it might be worthwhile to do this for each game, to see where the momentum shifted. The only problem with Ed's method is that it doesn't factor in who has possession, but that might complicate things too much. It's still cool, though -- and it works!

Ryan J. Parker · Joined: 23 Mar 2007 Posts: 119 Location: Charleston, SC

Thanks for linking that hidden gem. This is something I'm very interested in modeling (including things like team and/or player skill).

Very interesting!

Ben · Joined: 13 Jan 2005 Posts: 223 Location: Iowa City

Very Interesting. Of course, they weren't quite as dead as this implies since they had possession at the end.

94by50 · Joined: 01 Jan 2006 Posts: 447 Location: Phoenix

What's the actual data on teams down three with the ball and 15 or fewer seconds left? Start with a base 3pt% of about 35%, and all the other variables would seem to lower their chances of winning instead of raise it:

- The defense can foul and force the offense to the line.
- The defense, if they choose not to foul, will still guard the three-point line more heavily than normal. Shots will be more contested than normal.
- If the offense is gaining possession after a made basket/free throw, they have to go the length of the court.

The only advantage might be - and I'm just pulling this out of thin air - if the defense is spread out, would that open up the paint for more offensive rebound opportunities?

davis21wylie2121 · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 510 Location: Atlanta, GA

Yeah, I was thinking about this yesterday after I posted. Kansas' WP probably wasn't ever really as low as 1.7% right before Chalmers' shot, but I can't imagine it was 10% or higher. Looking at all of the things Calipari could have done to lower KU's WProb -- taking a timeout to set the D, fouling to prevent a 3, etc. -- you have to think that if he does everything he can, Kansas is looking at a <5% shot at winning this game.