APBRmetrics

THWilson · Joined: 19 Jul 2005 Posts: 148 Location: phoenix

deepak_e · Joined: 26 Apr 2006 Posts: 373

One thing he doesn't seem to take into account (unless I'm mistaken) is how aging impacts a player's ability to collect certain stats. I'd be surprised if a wing player like Josh Smith can sustain his current shot blocking rate.

Chicago76 · Joined: 06 Nov 2005 Posts: 77

He sort of takes into consideration aging in his "established level" estimation by taking a weighted average and applying 50% of the weight on the last year.

It doesn't necessarily work on guys who are in the middle of their careers, but those guys are so far away from career records, it's pretty impossible to say what injuries, retirement decisions, etc are going to do someone's chances anyway.

I looked at Malone's pursuit of the scoring record. I didn't count the short season against Malone during the lockout. I multiplied that season by 82/50 to determine his established level going forward. It still hurt him a bit as he still lost games to creep closer to the record.

1997/98 30.7%
1998/99 24.5%
1999/00 31.6%
2000/01 37.2%
2001/02 49.1%
2002/03 76.6%
2003/04 25.6%
retired

It's interesting to see the impact of the lockout in 1998/99 and the move to the Lakers in 2003/04.

jemagee · Joined: 05 Nov 2005 Posts: 97

What are th odds that

A. The sixers are smart enough to see he fits into what they are trying to do and
B. The embarassment that is the atlanta hawks ownership fights so much they don't match any contract offer cause they can't come to a consensus.

sadly, much lower than 18% i'm sure