APBRmetrics

[Climate]

I recently got into a discussion with a friend regarding the LA Lakers and all recent their success. I believe much of this success has much to do with the increased production of Andrew Bynum.
I don't post much on this site out of fear of polluting this forum which has so many brilliant basketball and statistcal minds on it, but I felt compelled to post this.

I noticed the positive change in the Lakers win section in their won-loss column coincided with the recent improvement of the numbers of Andrew Bynum, who appears to be coming into his own. The Lakers are 12-3 since December 9 thru Jan. 10. This record has been accompanied by a spike in Bynum's numbers in effective field goal %, points per game (and minute) and blocks since the beginning of December.

Other Laker players (with the exception of Kobe Bryant, who never has seemed to lack anything in the confidence department) appeared much more confident on the court, not hesitating to take shots, and basically playing much more focused. A paradigm shift in basketball attitude perhaps.

While I can't quantify that, I can quantify what the Lakers do with Bynum on and off the court. I checked out Bynum's on/off court splits on 82games.com:

http://www.82games.com/0708/07LAL16D.HTM

These are numbers for the entire season.


I would think that, if this success based on Bynum's recently improved numbers is true, than the Lakers should avoid the 2nd half of the season fades of the last couple of years, and should post a winning record consistent with perhaps a pythagorean equation based on the last 15 games or so for the rest of the year, barring any major injuries.
I would think that the question is whether his numbers are a result of his "coming into his own", or if he (and other Laker players) is simply playing better for a short span of games.

It looks IMO like Mitch Kupcek's best move (and undoubtedly a GM job-saving, if not a front-office career saving move)may be the one he didn't make by not trading Andrew Bynum.

I also wondered if anyone has any information on team's numbers with and without "dominant" centers. I suppose one would have to quantify the term "dominant". Thanks so much also for all the great posts by many of the basketball and stat minds that we are priviledged to read.

[Mountain]

Climate I think this is a good topic. I looked at a few things based on your comments:

On/off I see team FG% and rebounding up with Bynum.
For season as a whole Bynum has shot about 16 percentage points higher than the other Laker centers. Given that he takes close to 20% of the shots when on court this pretty nearly explains the entire team increase in FG% of 3.2% with him on/off. So for season Bynum is better than his subs but doesn't seem (at least at this level of analysis) to be impacting teammate FG% (but I havent assessed quality of teammates on /off).

Team offensive and defensive rebounding are both up with Bynum and the offensive rebounding increase appears to be pretty much the difference of his offensive rebounding rate vs his subs. The defensive rebouding rate only increased about half as much as the difference between his rate and his subs - so he took some rebounds from teammates but still had a positive impact. (Bears on the rebounding discussion here and at WOW).

Bynum's net impact is almost all from offensive side. Opponent FG% and points allowed at good with him on court but nearly equally as good with him off.

Lakers' construction is looking pretty strong. Kupchak and ownership are being rewarded for hanging tough with Bynum.

I can't speak much about team play in last 10 games not having seen them much but I do see that both Bynum has picked up his offense (FG% up from season avg 63% to 69%) and 2 of his subs have too.

I was struck by Kobe saying his role has changed and he doesnt have to score 35. If he means it and stick with it I think Lakers are in the top half of the mix competing to win the west.

[Rasta978]

The first thing you notice about Bynum is his outstanding FG%. Bynum is at .630, while his counterpart (which I view as a proxy for the "average center" adjusted for actual minutes on the court) is shooting .416. That's huge, and leads to a marginal 5.4 points/48 for the Lakers. (Usage rate isn't at play here; Bynum and his counterpart are basically taking the same number of shots).

Secondly, the Lakers have gone from a rebound margin of -1.0 in 2006-07, to +1.9 in 2007-08. Someone else can look at this closer, but on the surface you have to give Bynum a lot of credit here. His rebounds have increased from 5.9 to 10.0 per game.

Considering that he's only 20, Laker fans have every right to feel excited about his future.

[thref23]

Derek Fisher & Farmar's improvement in place of Smush Parker couldn't have hurt either

[Mike G]

Bynum, Fisher, and Farmar have all been showing up among my MIP's since mid-December. Here are Lakers' ups/downs since last year, in estimated Points of difference.

[Mike G]

Sagarin's rankings, which are based on strength of schedule and margin of victory, has the Western teams thus:

96.7 LAL
95.1 SAS
94.9 Dal
94.4 Phx
94.3 Uta
94.1 NOH
93.9 Hou
92.5 Den
92.1 GS
91.1 Por
86.6 Sac
etc

The 2-7 spots are a pretty tight knot; Hou has played the league's toughest schedule (91.35 -- avg is 90). I hadn't noticed LA's rise to the top, nor the Dal climb back to elite. Mavs are 9-3 vs other top-10 teams.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0708.htm
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There's no I in analysys.

[Mountain]

Overall there are 7 teams with even or better records against top 10. I thought that might be low but last season there were only 4 for full 82 games (the western conference finalists with by far the best such records and 2 others from west just a bit over even). In 05-06 the 4 conference finalists were all top 5 against top 10 teams. In 04-05 it was top 2 in west vs top 2 in east. You could do a longer review but performance against top 10 regular season has been a pretty good recent barometer for playoff advancement to highest levels.

Boston/Detroit is the expected eastern pairing. Dallas vs pick em might be the reading on the west from this data at the moment as no other western team is much above .500 against top 10 yet.

[Mountain]

In last 3 weeks since commenting in the Boston roll thread Spurs have slipped some and seens others rise to them. While still tied for 3rd they've gone from clear 3rd best overall to in a virtual dead heat with Lakers by methods outlined there. The record against top 10 teams agrees with these tests about tight conditions in west.

Dallas still on low side for defense for season but have recovered ground on that and are now 3rd best in west (up from 7th) on season stats by combined strength method. Record against top 10 might have been reason enough to show flexibility about the defense criteria in that method (as a few teams in recent past have warranted) but if the recent defense continues that may not be necessary.