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davis21wylie2121
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 374
Location: Atlanta, GA
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 Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2007 7:56 pm Post subject: |
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Yep, BoP is Basketball on Paper.
Anyway, following through on my promise above, I took the Pyth%'s from my initial analysis, dumped the 2007-08 NBA schedule into Excel, and ran a 10,000-season log5 simulation of the upcoming year. Since it does indeed take into account scheduling effects (and home-court advantage, etc.), this should be the definitive version of my predicted standings:
| Code: | Year Team Conf Seed Div MP Pace Poss PF PA ORtg DRtg Avg W Avg L
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2007-08 Chicago Bulls E 1 C 19852 93.4 7726 8146 7647 105.4 99.0 57.7 24.3
2007-08 Boston Celtics E 2 A 19874 92.1 7627 8262 8000 108.3 104.9 50.2 31.8
2007-08 Cleveland Cavs E 3 C 19850 90.5 7485 8077 7592 107.9 101.4 57.1 24.9
2007-08 Orlando Magic E 4 S 19813 89.9 7422 7988 7866 107.6 106.0 45.8 36.2
2007-08 Detroit Pistons E 5 C 19874 87.3 7229 7779 7576 107.6 104.8 48.7 33.3
2007-08 Toronto Raptors E 6 A 19861 92.3 7638 8091 8143 105.9 106.6 40.0 42.0
2007-08 Washington Wiz E 7 S 19815 93.7 7736 8521 8585 110.1 111.0 39.9 42.1
2007-08 Miami Heat E 8 S 19848 90.3 7468 7707 7829 103.2 104.8 37.6 44.4
2007-08 New Jersey Nets E 9 A 19843 90.9 7516 7749 7898 103.1 105.1 36.9 45.1
2007-08 Atlanta Hawks E 10 S 19872 90.2 7469 7891 8146 105.7 109.1 33.4 48.6
2007-08 New York Knicks E 11 A 19933 90.8 7541 8037 8312 106.6 110.2 32.7 49.3
2007-08 Indiana Pacers E 12 C 19796 91.5 7547 7635 7920 101.2 104.9 32.0 50.0
2007-08 Char. Bobcats E 13 S 19921 92.3 7661 7894 8252 103.0 107.7 29.7 52.3
2007-08 Phila. 76ers E 14 A 19884 91.4 7572 7746 8106 102.3 107.0 29.7 52.3
2007-08 Milwaukee Bucks E 15 C 19832 92.0 7602 8018 8461 105.5 111.3 27.4 54.6
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2007-08 SA Spurs W 1 S 19799 89.5 7383 8029 7220 108.7 97.8 65.2 16.8
2007-08 Phoenix Suns W 2 P 19889 95.7 7931 9011 8452 113.6 106.6 56.9 25.1
2007-08 Dallas Mavs W 3 S 19804 89.4 7377 8313 7605 112.7 103.1 62.2 19.8
2007-08 Utah Jazz W 4 N 19831 90.7 7494 8171 8034 109.0 107.2 45.3 36.7
2007-08 Houston Rockets W 5 S 19844 92.0 7607 8205 7741 107.9 101.8 55.2 26.8
2007-08 Denver Nuggets W 6 N 19840 96.4 7969 8608 8491 108.0 106.6 44.4 37.6
2007-08 NO Hornets W 7 S 19862 89.8 7432 7900 7904 106.3 106.4 40.3 41.7
2007-08 LA Lakers W 8 P 19874 92.8 7685 8339 8352 108.5 108.7 40.2 41.8
2007-08 Sac. Kings W 9 P 19832 94.1 7776 8192 8343 105.4 107.3 36.0 46.0
2007-08 Memphis Grizz W 10 S 19839 91.8 7588 8038 8205 105.9 108.1 35.2 46.8
2007-08 GS Warriors W 11 P 19835 97.6 8066 8459 8667 104.9 107.4 34.4 47.6
2007-08 Seattle Sonics W 12 N 19807 91.5 7551 8066 8274 106.8 109.6 34.0 48.0
2007-08 LA Clippers W 13 P 19856 90.8 7512 7794 8005 103.7 106.6 33.7 48.3
2007-08 Minn. T-Wolves W 14 N 19854 90.5 7487 7592 8037 101.4 107.3 26.2 55.8
2007-08 Por.Blazers W 15 N 19784 88.3 7279 7460 8055 102.5 110.7 21.8 60.2
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And here's how it breaks down by division:
| Code: | Atlantic PF PA ORtg DRtg Avg W Avg L
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Boston Celtics 8262 8000 108.3 104.9 50.2 31.8
Toronto Raptors 8091 8143 105.9 106.6 40.0 42.0
New Jersey Nets 7749 7898 103.1 105.1 36.9 45.1
New York Knicks 8037 8312 106.6 110.2 32.7 49.3
Phil. 76ers 7746 8106 102.3 107.0 29.7 52.3
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Central PF PA ORtg DRtg Avg W Avg L
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Chicago Bulls 8146 7647 105.4 99.0 57.7 24.3
Cleveland Cavs 8077 7592 107.9 101.4 57.1 24.9
Detroit Pistons 7779 7576 107.6 104.8 48.7 33.3
Indiana Pacers 7635 7920 101.2 104.9 32.0 50.0
Milwaukee Bucks 8018 8461 105.5 111.3 27.4 54.6
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Southeast PF PA ORtg DRtg Avg W Avg L
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Orlando Magic 7988 7866 107.6 106.0 45.8 36.2
Washington Wiz 8521 8585 110.1 111.0 39.9 42.1
Miami Heat 7707 7829 103.2 104.8 37.6 44.4
Atlanta Hawks 7891 8146 105.7 109.1 33.4 48.6
Char. Bobcats 7894 8252 103.0 107.7 29.7 52.3
--------------------------------------------------------------
Northwest PF PA ORtg DRtg Avg W Avg L
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Utah Jazz 8171 8034 109.0 107.2 45.3 36.7
Denver Nuggets 8608 8491 108.0 106.6 44.4 37.6
Seattle Sonics 8066 8274 106.8 109.6 34.0 48.0
Min. T-wolves 7592 8037 101.4 107.3 26.2 55.8
Por.Blazers 7460 8055 102.5 110.7 21.8 60.2
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Pacific PF PA ORtg DRtg Avg W Avg L
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Phoenix Suns 9011 8452 113.6 106.6 56.9 25.1
LA Lakers 8339 8352 108.5 108.7 40.2 41.8
Sac. Kings 8192 8343 105.4 107.3 36.0 46.0
GS Warriors 8459 8667 104.9 107.4 34.4 47.6
LA Clippers 7794 8005 103.7 106.6 33.7 48.3
--------------------------------------------------------------
Southwest PF PA ORtg DRtg Avg W Avg L
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SA Spurs 8029 7220 108.7 97.8 65.2 16.8
Dallas Mavs 8313 7605 112.7 103.1 62.2 19.8
Houston Rockets 8205 7741 107.9 101.8 55.2 26.8
NO Hornets 7900 7904 106.3 106.4 40.3 41.7
Memphis Grizz 8038 8205 105.9 108.1 35.2 46.8
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Posts: 216
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| Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2007 8:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Quick and impressive. Doesn't look from a few checks that it changed the w/l that much. Thanks for sharing these summaries and the source file. |
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Ben
Joined: 13 Jan 2005
Posts: 202
Location: Iowa City
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| Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 3:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Actually, those predictions look a lot better at the top. I'm sure San Antonio is capable of 67 wins, but as a prediction, it seemed too high. |
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kbomb
Joined: 09 Aug 2005
Posts: 6
Location: Gardena, CA
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| Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 5:05 pm Post subject: |
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| just out of curiosity... how did you come up with playing time, games played and pace? were they based on some precedents and formula based on it or just an educated guess? i'm curious because i have trouble dealing with these things in an objective manner. |
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davis21wylie2121
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 374
Location: Atlanta, GA
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| Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:11 pm Post subject: |
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| kbomb wrote: | | just out of curiosity... how did you come up with playing time, games played and pace? were they based on some precedents and formula based on it or just an educated guess? i'm curious because i have trouble dealing with these things in an objective manner. |
Pace wasn't hard to project -- I just ran a best-fit regression on all team possessions and minutes (1974-2007), looking at how a team's previous three years predicted its possessions/minutes in the current season. The only team I really fudged on the pace projection was Houston, where I averaged their predicted Van Gundy pace with Adelman's predicted pace for his last year in Sacramento.
Individual playing times were not derived as objectively... For players who played before in the NBA, I could use their past 3 years to predict games played, but for rookies I had to guess based on their college injury histories, as well as their new team's tendencies to play rookies. I also accounted for guys who will be injured for a big chunk of 07-08 (like Elton Brand, for instance) when coming up with GP projections.
MPG was the most subjective. As was the case with GP, I tried to keep veterans at their established levels as a starting point. Once I made a guess for everyone, I adjusted based on depth charts and the way the team used certain players at certain positions in previous seasons, until team aggregate minutes matched the projection I arrived at via the regression.
In short, coming up with MPG was hardly a scientific process, but I tried to be as objective as humanly possible when making the guesstimates. Pace and GP were pretty objectively handled, but like you said, it's hard to come up with an equation to predict MPG, b/c you just don't know what kinds of roles coaches will assign to certain guys (especially rookies). |
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Special K
Joined: 22 Jun 2007
Posts: 6
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| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 11:16 am Post subject: |
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Thanks! This was well done.
_________________
No fancy website
No fancy book |
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NickS
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 247
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| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 11:19 am Post subject: |
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| Thanks, this is great work. |
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CareyScurry
Joined: 29 Jul 2005
Posts: 4
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| Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 7:09 pm Post subject: Minor, minor note |
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The impact of this is minimal (less than any fudge factor), but here are a few roster corrections:
Devin Brown to CLE
Lynn Greer off Milwaukee (to Europe)
Swap Jared Jordan and Dan Dickau (LAC/NYK)
Cedric Simmons to CLE |
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