| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
asimpkins
Joined: 30 Apr 2006
Posts: 173
|
 Posted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 10:01 am Post subject: |
 |
|
| supersub15 wrote: | | By the way, shouldn't the Bobcats projection be redone, as Sean May is out for the season? |
It was redone. He now has them at 34-48 and finishing 12th. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1509
Location: Delphi, Indiana
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 9:59 am Post subject: |
|
|
| davis21wylie2121 wrote: | | jkubatko wrote: |
... At the end of the season we can compare the results. |
... It would be fun to see who comes closest to getting it right. |
The sense of urgency has compelled me to make a stab at this and submit an entry. I've used DW21's suggested minutes distribution (though I have some questions about them) for my first pass.
For rookies, and for others who did not play last year (Miles, eg), I used an average eW rate for players with similar minutes; slightly adjusting for strength of team and/or position depth.
The total averaged 41.6 wins per team. I subtracted 1.2 wins from each Western team to end up with 41 per team. Quick and dirty.
| Code: | West East
tm W tm W
Dal 62 Bos 55
SA 61 Cle 53
Phx 60 Chi 52
Hou 56 Det 51
Uta 52 Tor 43
Den 45 Was 41
NO 41 NJ 41
LAL 38 Orl 40
GS 37 NY 40
Mem 37 Mia 40
LAC 36 Cha 33
Sac 34 Atl 30
Sea 29 Ind 30
Min 25 Mil 29
Por 15 Phi 25
|
The East has 4 sure bets, then 6 teams fighting for 4 playoff spots, then 5 also-rans. The West will send one fairly bad team.
This is just a first take. It seems DW21 allots plenty of minutes to guys who haven't played yet. I credited them with nice contributions, but I suspect the few pleasant surprises are outnumbered by lots of guys who don't cut it.
The Blazers look much worse than anyone else. This assumes Roy plays 2300 minutes. This is a team led by Jarrett Jack and Martell Webster.
I haven't made any adjustments for age. Players who were worse than replacement level last year are still negative. I can work on this in a later edition.
_________________
40% of all statistics are wrong. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
NickS
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 247
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 11:29 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Mike G wrote: |
This is just a first take. It seems DW21 allots plenty of minutes to guys who haven't played yet. I credited them with nice contributions, but I suspect the few pleasant surprises are outnumbered by lots of guys who don't cut it.
|
Thanks for doing this. It's fun to see another set of predictions. Your have the top teams winning fewer games than DW21 does, and I think Portland will be better than 15 wins this season, DW21's estimate of 22 wins seems more likely, but a lot depends on Roy.
It would be interesting if you do refine this, either by adjusting the minutes estimates or by incorporating age effects in some way.
I'm interested in putting up a new thread that contains all of the predictions with links to the details to make it easier to compare them. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
jkubatko
Joined: 05 Jan 2005
Posts: 508
Location: Columbus, OH
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:54 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I really was interested in predictions for individual players, not teams.
_________________
Regards,
Justin Kubatko
Basketball Stats! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
bchaikin
Joined: 27 Jan 2005
Posts: 509
Location: cleveland, ohio
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 1:18 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I really was interested in predictions for individual players, not teams.
yesterday espn posted john's nba player ratings. these make for great reading. be forewarned he does dance over some issues and doesn't always let you know how he feels on some players...
like eddy curry:
Now, about the rest of his game: It's terrible. Seriously, there is not one other category where he's even mediocre.
or adam morrison:
he had a horrible, horrible season, and anyone who says differently just wasn't paying attention.
if he still published his book it'd be on the ny times best seller list... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
jkubatko
Joined: 05 Jan 2005
Posts: 508
Location: Columbus, OH
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 1:27 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| jkubatko wrote: | | I really was interested in predictions for individual players, not teams. |
Let me clarify: From Mike G.
_________________
Regards,
Justin Kubatko
Basketball Stats! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
NickS
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 247
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 2:03 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| bchaikin wrote: | | if he still published his book it'd be on the ny times best seller list... |
I'm still dissapointed that Hollinger doesn't publish it as a book anymore.
I was browsing through old Prospectuses (prespecti?) this summer and having them as books makes it easy to go back and re-read.
I may be a niche market, but if he published his ESPN work as a book I'd buy it even if it came out in the middle of the season. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1509
Location: Delphi, Indiana
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 6:10 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| jkubatko wrote: | | jkubatko wrote: | | I really was interested in predictions for individual players, not teams. |
Let me clarify: From Mike G. |
I don't predict changes for anyone in or near their prime years. You can see some of last year's best players' ratings here:
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=1053&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=45
As I may have mentioned, I will try to adjust my team rankings with attention to players who seem to be in decline or on the upward track.
_________________
40% of all statistics are wrong. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
