Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 6:20 am Post subject: A way to define 3-pt specialists
Is Kyle Korver a 3-pt specialist? How about Bruce Bowen (other than his defensive role) or Antoine Walker?
I've always wondered how media people pigeon-holed certain players just because they were proficient at shooting the 3. So, I wanted a more quantitative way of measuring this role.
My initial thought is to see how many threes a player shot out his total FGA, but maybe a better way is to tabulate it as such: 3PA/(FGA-3PA) to get the number of attempted 3s for every attempted 2.
My problem is two-fold:
1. The league average is 0.2692 3PA for every 2PA. How do I set the cut-off for nominating a player as a 3-pt specialist? Is it 0.75 for 1, 1 for 1? Do I set it arbitrarily or is there a more scientific way to do it?
2. Do I integrate 3P shooting proficiency into this, i.e. is the fact that Walker shoots .86 threes for every 2PA make him a 3-pt specialist even though he only shoots at a .275 clip? What's the best way to integrate 3FG%?
For me a 3p specialist is somenone who 1) shoots a high efficiency from behind the 3p line and 2) who also shoots a lot of 3p attempts. Which % of his total attempts need to be 3's and which % does he need to make before you call him a 3p specialist? That will differ from person to person. _________________ Where There's a WilT There's a Way
To me, a three-point specialist should also use relatively few possessions. There are exceptions to this (the WNBA's Shanna Crossley, who has never been shy about pulling the trigger, comes to mind), but I don't think of someone like Walker or Baron Davis as a three-point specialist, even though they do attempt a relatively high percentage of threes.
How about finding the 90th percentile for whatever stat you choose as a somewhat less arbitrary threshold?
admin wrote:
To me, a three-point specialist should also use relatively few possessions. There are exceptions to this (the WNBA's Shanna Crossley, who has never been shy about pulling the trigger, comes to mind), but I don't think of someone like Walker or Baron Davis as a three-point specialist, even though they do attempt a relatively high percentage of threes.
That makes me realize I chose two examples who shoot a relatively low percentage and shoot a lot of threes. Allen is different, but I still wouldn't consider him in that group. To me, specialist implies it's about all they do on offense.
So here's the list (minimum 100 FGA) of highest three attempt percentage in 06-07:
Code:
Player 3A%
----------------
Barry .675
D. Jones .651
Vujacic .601
Posey .600
Horry .594
J.R. Smith .593
Diawara .582
Scalabrine .576
Head .573
D. Johnson .751
I actually already have a junk number which measures what I was talking about: it's 3A% squared divided by possession percentage squared. Here's that list:
Code:
Player 3Rat
----------------
Scalabrine 26.6
Diawara 22.6
Battier 22.0
Posey 21.4
Bowen 21.1
Horry 18.8
Barry 18.3
D. Jones 16.4
D. Gibson 16.2
Vujacic 14.9
The biggest difference there is that J.R. Smith, who shot a ton of threes but was also a fairly big part of the Denver offense, moves off. Shane Battier, who almost never shot in Houston, moves way up and the positions slide a little. Not a huge difference either way. Now if you factor in three-point percentage, that's a different story.
Joined: 05 Sep 2007 Posts: 3 Location: University of Miami-Florida
Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 12:51 pm Post subject:
I had thought the standard for the "3-Point Specialist" was 3PMade/FGA. That way you integrate shooting percentage. This past year the top of the list looks like this: B Barry, L Head, D Jones, S Battier, JR Smith, B Scalabrine, B Nachbar, D Gibson, J Posey[/code]
To me, a three-point specialist should also use relatively few possessions. There are exceptions to this (the WNBA's Shanna Crossley, who has never been shy about pulling the trigger, comes to mind), but I don't think of someone like Walker or Baron Davis as a three-point specialist, even though they do attempt a relatively high percentage of threes.
I agree that Baron Davis and Antoine Walker are not three-point specialists. However, my reasoning would be different.
In my mind, a specialist is someone who has "special" skill in a particular area. It is not implicit that the skill should be exclusive of other skills. Therefore, I don't see using "few possessions" as relevant.
A person can have more than one specialty. Jason Kapono's only specialty is three-point shooting (although strangely he doesn't make your lists.) However, Steve Nash is a three point specialist -- and also a play-making specialist. Anthony Parker is a three-point specialist -- and also a defensive specialist. Brent Barry and Ray Allen are certainly established three point specialists with fairly balanced offensive skills.
However, Antoine Walker is not a three point specialist. Doing something frequently doesn't make you a specialist -- you have to be good at it. It wouldn't matter whether 'toine shot a trey on every possession. If he is shooting .275 he is not a three-point specialist.
Here are a couple of attempts to quantify this.
In terms of efficiency I would just look at: (3PM * 3) / (3PA * lgPPA) (2006-07 league points per scoring attempt = 1.083) This is obviously just points per 3PA compared to an "average" attempt that season, but I like it because it makes is easy to compare the "extra" produced by one individual compared to another.
3-Point Efficiency (minimum 100 3PA)
1.42 Jason Kapono
1.28 Walter Herrmann
1.26 Steve Nash
1.24 Brent Barry
1.22 Luther Head
1.22 Anthony Parker
1.21 Jason Terry
1.20 Leandro Barbosa
1.20 Al Harrington
1.19 Kyle Korver
Jason Kapono scored an "extra" 42% per attempt -- the best by quite a large margin. Antoine Walker scored 0.89 or 11% under the league average points per attempt on his 3PAs.
However, it's often more meaningful to see these kinds of numbers in terms of production, rather than ratios or percentages. You can get the "extra" points a player produces with three-point shots per game with: ((3PM * 3) - (3PA * lgPPA)) / GP. These methods get rid of many of the the marginal players who creep into some lists.
3-Point "extra" Production per Game (minimum 50 GP)
2.62 Jason Kapono
2.15 Brent Barry
2.10 Luther Head
1.80 Eddie House
1.76 Leandro Barbosa
1.73 Steve Nash
1.54 Bostjan Nachbar
1.44 Jason Terry
1.33 Kyle Korver
1.28 Raja Bell
Again, some high volume 3-point shooters such as Walker (-1.00), Baron Davis (-0.77) Arenas (-0.24) and Billups (-0.22) actually cost their team points each game. No matter how much they may shoot threes, they are not what I would call specialists (or, at least, they didn't perform like they were that year.)
Again, some high volume 3-point shooters such as Walker (-1.00), Baron Davis (-0.77) Arenas (-0.24) and Billups (-0.22) actually cost their team points each game. No matter how much they may shoot threes, they are not what I would call specialists (or, at least, they didn't perform like they were that year.)
It might be enlightening to remove both FGM and FGA at end-of-shot-clock or end-of-period bail-out shots, perhaps with 2 seconds or less left. Players who take many possession bailout shots would be punished for being responsible for the offensive set's failure or the circumstances of the clock, unless the rest of their 3-pt shooting is even worse...
I had thought the standard for the "3-Point Specialist" was 3PMade/FGA. That way you integrate shooting percentage. This past year the top of the list looks like this: B Barry, L Head, D Jones, S Battier, JR Smith, B Scalabrine, B Nachbar, D Gibson, J Posey[/code]
Good idea. That list is a good start. Guys who make as many threes as possible, but shoot as little as possible, also...
When putting together composite scores, I ranked players by 3 pt FG%, punished players who didn't take so many 3 point attempts (that way Elton Brand wasn't tops in the league), and weighted the results slightly on a per team basis (players on teams with a better offense were more likely to get open looks, so they were slightly punished).
For the best 10 3 point shooters in the league I came up with:
If one were to take each player's 3 point ranking and divide it by their overall ranking (to find guys who's 3 pt shooting ability makes up the highest percentage of their overall ability), filter ,players who scored below 20 (i.e. players like Primo Brezec Adam Morrison and David Noel), take the top 20 and rank the top 20 by 3 pt shooting %, the results are:
And I think thats your best list. Spots 11-20, btw, are as follows (Bruce Bowen does end up top 20 by this measure, but I think these guys are a step below "specialists"):
Alternatively, I tried simply multiplying each player's overall score by the percentage of 3 pt shooting to overall score, filtered out players with scores higher than 70 (too good to simply be a specialist), and came up with the following top 20:
Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 12:21 am Post subject: Re: A way to define 3-pt specialists
supersub15 wrote:
I've always wondered how media people pigeon-holed certain players just because they were proficient at shooting the 3. So, I wanted a more quantitative way of measuring this role.
It's semantics, but I think the original post captures what a specialist is. I would contrast Steve Kerr and Jason Kapono with Steve Nash. Charles' stats are valuable, but I don't think they capture specialization (associated with concentration in a particular area). I think Charles' stats capture talent (expertise). Particulary given supersub's original question, I don't think Steve Nash should be pigeon-holed into the Kerr/Kapono role because Charles shows he shoots the three almost comparably.
I think of the analogy in medicine, people aren't both superstar caridologists and orthopedic surgeons. They are specialists in one field or the other. As a player with multiple talents, Steve Nash is closer to a superstar primary care physicians, perhaps the surgeon general.
Similarly, I'd say that someone in the Walker category who concentrates on shooting the 3 on offense but doesn't do it as well is a specialist that is not as talented as others. Someone out there is the worst cardiologist in the US, but they're still a specialist.
I would consider a 3 point specialist someone that would not be in the league if not for his ability to make the 3 point shot. I wouldn't consider guys like Brent Barry, Troy Murphy, or Brian Cook specialist. Only guys I would consider specialist are players that enter the game with the sole purpose to make 3 pointers. Steve Novak is a specialist. Anytime he is in the game its only to make 3 pointers or long jump shots. JJ Redick is pretty close to a specialist. Salim Stoudamire and Damon Jones are pretty much specialist only there to shoot. Kapano for most of his career I would consider specialist. Perhaps he has improved on other aspects enough you can say he a little more now.
If I was to look for who the 3 point specialist are I would take the players who play limited minutes who shoot high number of 3 point shots. Most likely these players have pretty low PERs and don't provide anything defensively.
I had thought the standard for the "3-Point Specialist" was 3PMade/FGA. That way you integrate shooting percentage. This past year the top of the list looks like this: B Barry, L Head, D Jones, S Battier, JR Smith, B Scalabrine, B Nachbar, D Gibson, J Posey[/code]
I like this more than using 3 point attempts. A question, IMO, is whether a "3 point specialist" is allowed to specialize in multiple categories. Is Shane Battier "a specialist" or is he a really good player that shoots threes well (or both).
Perhaps a "fake 3 pt specialist" category would be interesting to compute. Meaning players that put up 3 pt attempts like they are specialists, but shoot too poorly to be specialists. Antoine Walker might top the league in that category.
I would consider a 3 point specialist someone that would not be in the league if not for his ability to make the 3 point shot.
You posted this at the same time I was thinking it (and posting something similar). Personally, I would simply be inclined to view a 3 pt specialist as a player who's 3 pt shooting ability accounts for a certain percentage of his overall ability.
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