APBRmetrics

[MoBettle]

Warning. Kind of a big post. Most of it is the stat.

Background- I was recently involved in a discussion about the refereeing communities supposed favorite son, Dwayne Wade. Some felt that he went to the line so much because of his “star quality,” while others felt it was because he drove to the basket at a very high rate. The theory behind this stat came up. I decided to take it and expand on it.

Free throws Attempted divided by Inside Shots

I calculated inside shots using 82games.com‘s Player Shot Selection table, using the percentage for “Inside,” and multiplied that percentage by the players total shots. (Obviously, the number isn’t exact because it’s only a percentage of 100, but it’s good enough) This seemed like a good stat to use because by and large most foul shots come from drives to the basket and close shots. Someone who is good at drawing contact would accumulate a lot of free throws without taking relatively many inside shots.

I’ll use Dwayne Wade as the example:

Dwayne took 962 total shots, with 38% of them being inside. So that comes out to about 366 Inside Shots. He took 535 FTs. 535/366= 1.46 FTAs/Inside Shots

I then did the other 49 of the top 50 FTA per game guys in the NBA to get some perspective.

[Gavin]

That's very interesting. I have always believed that Wade gets more calls because he drives more often, it's nice to see that there is something to back up that belief. He's just really good at putting the refs in a position where they have to make a call, and unlike a lot of other players he doesn't seem to get discouraged and start settling for jumpers after a few calls don't go his way.

It seems like a lot of the people who try to knock Wade down a few pegs by painting him as the refs favourite are Mavericks fans who are bitter about the 2006 Finals or Kobe fans who are bitter that Wade is stealing some of Kobes shine.

[Mountain]

Good list to see.

This article
http://www.82games.com/locations.htm
says 90% of shooting fouls occur in paint so your approach has that going for it.

Wade is #1 on FT attempts. But he takes 75+% more total FG attempts per 48 than Billups or Magette so that affects the ratio. Wade does rank a little higher in league on FT/FG at knickblogger- 8th than on your list/your cut.

FT attempts / total scoring possessions used would be another way to slice it that is comprehensive and puts those of different FGA and drawn foul /FTA patterns on level playing field.

[davis21wylie2121]

Interesting list, good work.

But as to who would call Chauncey Billups a star? Me. I would call him a star.

[MoBettle]

Thanks for the feedback guys

I meant as far as Billups not generally being someone you think of as one of the guys that get "star calls." (Wade, Kobe, Arenas, Iverson, LeBron ect.) He does have one of the best Sam Cassell memorial "fake jumper, go into the defender and draw the foul" moves in the NBA though.

[Mike G]

[Mountain]

Are there other descriptive stats that havent been given their moment in the spotlight? There was previous mention of that Philly based extended stat list and I have that link around somewhere.

Offensive rebound putback scores and drawn fouls if anyone works to extract them from play by play?

How about player floortime win% - team?

Or best net counterpart by position? I've done quick looks at counterpart FG% allowed, points and presumed opponent PER by some positions but comprehensive would add and give another list to compare against DCS variants and team-results based player defensive ratings.

Best team eFG% and allowed with player on/off?

Best on/off rebounding,assist, turnovers, freethrow changes? Passing and rebounding ratings. Plenty of topics for posts or 82games articles out there.

I've looked at big name shooters crunch or clutch performance but haven't compiled absolute tops for most recent season or looked at breakouts by jump shooting and inside.

[MoBettle]

[asimpkins]

Great list. One potential problem though is that you don't always get the same number of FTA per foul call in the paint. If a player is really adapt at finishing the basket when getting fouled, his FTA per inside shot will go down and he'll drop down this list. Players that never finish when getting fouled will always collect their two FTAs and move up.

[MoBettle]

[admin]

82games had a study last year with a similar rating as well as numbers (at the time) for shooting fouls:
http://82games.com/fouldraw.htm

[holymoly]

Drawing contact is more about drawing fouls rather than shooting fouls isn't it? I've always found it strange that Fouls Drawn isn't captured as standard in NBA box scores, as it is internationally.
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