APBRmetrics

[Mountain]

The case of the Mavs and 2 main rivals gives an opportunity to talk about shot distribution and how it is put together and raises the question of whether there is an ideal mix.

In the few years immediately preceding Nash's arrival the Mavs were a terrible shooting team, near the bottom of the league. After a transition year Nelson and Nash were leading a top shooting team. The value of Nash's penetration in creating a triple array of scoring opportunities (score himself, get easy points for others inside or facilitate the 3 pt game) is well known but its value in enhancing the 3 pt game might deserve reinforcement.

After Nash left Mavs 3 pt shooting frequency took a 2 year downturn of almost 20%. It may have been partly Avery Johnson's initial offensive preference as well as the loss of Nash and his affect they just couldnt make up. But last year Avery got the 3 pt attempts back up to the final year of Nash though still 10+% below Nash-led peak team 3 pt frequency.

It is clear that the Mavs could still be highly efficient on offense in regular season without Nash's dominant playmaking and assists and they got better on defense. But seems like they might either need a bigger 3pt attack or a better inside game to take final step.

In first post Nash season Mavs team inside FG% fell from 58% to 54% though frequency on inside shots held up for two years. Last season that fell too, from 32% to 28%. The two changes combined appear a real handicap. Is the concern about this any higher now? Trade effort?

Mavs team 3pt FG% climbed 1% point a year since Nash left and Dallas can be pleased with that but could they be too focused on that and not aggressive enough about 3 pt frequency? Will 3 pt attempts rise again or stay where they were last year?

Last year Mavs still took considerably less 3s than Spurs and Suns. They also lacked as much or as strong an inside game. They offset this by being the better (perhaps best) midrange team but that is the least powerful by far of the three shooting strengths to have. It helps but can you depend on it in the playoffs when the defense is tighter?

Will Mavs increase 3 pt attack? The roster moves suggest they might but too early to tell. Or increase inside attack? No significant move there yet. Can more minutes from Harris give them more penetration and help these 2 more efficient offensive choices? Perhaps.

Do the Mavs' stat guys advocate movement in one or both of these directions or stay the course? Are Avery Johnson, Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban consciously pursuing a different offensive strategy design or just using their talent? Are they too set in their players or ways? They are all in top 4 on efficiency so the Mavs are still a big success on offense but I think I'd prefer to go into deep round battle with Suns or Spurs designs than the Mavs (but maybe that is just taste). Spurs and Suns with their higher inside/ 3pt emphasis set up off on some of best PG penetration in the league have stronger offensive weapons to turn to especially in times of great consequence.

frequencies and eFG%s

Mavs

Inside 29% 59%
midrange 49% 40%
3 pt 22% 57%


Spurs

Inside 33% 63%
midrange 42% 33%
3 pt 25% 57%


Suns

Inside 32% 67%
midrange 49% 34%
3 pt 29% 60%

The Mavs overall model worked well enough to get to finals in 06 but 3 pt% and weak inside game both kept them from winning it all and it also contributed to the early exit in 07. Last past unsucessful playoffs Mavs inside shot frequency slipped another point to 28%. 3pt shot attempts were up but they couldnt make enough. Maybe their caution about attempts was right for their cast but they still might need more 3 pt shooting perhaps from new guys. Will be interesting to see what happens next season.