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supersub15
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Posts: 78
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 Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:32 am Post subject: Offensive Foul Rate |
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Does anybody know where I can download the play-by-play game logs for one specific team. I know that Basketball Value has the full season for ALL teams, but it becomes a pain in the you know what to separate them for the team I follow, the Toronto Raptors.
If it doesn't exist, anybody want to share the load and do it? We can make the work available to everybody here.
Last edited by supersub15 on Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:35 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Truthiness
Joined: 30 May 2007
Posts: 7
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| Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:01 am Post subject: |
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Once you download the play-by-play you should be able to copy everything into an excel document and write a macro in Visual Basic that could sort out all the games using whatever team you are looking for.
I would be interested in helping out if I can find the time, I'll try to write something up over the weekend. |
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supersub15
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Posts: 78
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| Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Truthiness wrote: | | Once you download the play-by-play you should be able to copy everything into an excel document and write a macro in Visual Basic that could sort out all the games using whatever team you are looking for. |
Not a bad idea. Except that Excel has a limited number of rows available and you'd have to truncate the input in many, many chunks. |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 677
Location: Seattle
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| Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 2:55 pm Post subject: |
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| The problem with adding up individual game logs is that team turnovers (shot-clock violations, etc.) don't end up getting counted. |
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THWilson
Joined: 19 Jul 2005
Posts: 124
Location: phoenix
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| Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2007 4:31 pm Post subject: |
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| supersub15 wrote: | Does anybody know where I can download the play-by-play game logs for one specific team. I know that Basketball Value has the full season for ALL teams, but it becomes a pain in the you know what to separate them for the team I follow, the Toronto Raptors.
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I did this for 2006 using MS Access (  ), it was really simple. If you have any kind of database program available you can simply load up the game logs and write a query where home team = 'tor' or away team = 'tor'. The results would be in the 35 - 40,000 row range.
| supersub15 wrote: | | Not a bad idea. Except that Excel has a limited number of rows available and you'd have to truncate the input in many, many chunks. |
This is largely not an issue in Excel 2007, the row limit is ~15x the limit in 2003. |
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supersub15
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Posts: 78
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| Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:45 pm Post subject: |
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| THWilson wrote: | | I did this for 2006 using MS Access ( ), it was really simple. If you have any kind of database program available you can simply load up the game logs and write a query where home team = 'tor' or away team = 'tor'. The results would be in the 35 - 40,000 row range. |
I followed your advice, and it worked like a charm. Now, I need help with the results of a query. I set the criteria to be: Like "*Foul: Offensive*" in order to get all possible offensive fouls committed by all teams. I wanted to see which teams committed the most and which the least.
I ended up having Washington with 98 offensive fouls, Boston with 112, etc. These look very low to me. Am I using the wrong criteria or are these numbers real?
Edit: Sorry. Got it to work. The criteria should have been "*Foul:*Offensive*"
I will share the totals with you later. |
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supersub15
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Posts: 78
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| Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:44 pm Post subject: |
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Alright, I started by compiling the numbers for the Raptors. Now, I have the total number of offensive fouls per player for the entire year. However, these numbers are so miniscule in some cases, e.g. Garbajosa with 6 total offensive fouls, that I'm not sure how to get some meaningful analysis out of it.
I thought about working with Games Played and Usage Rate to calculate the number of possessions per actual game played that end up being an offensive foul, but I'm not sure this the best way to go.
I'm a newbie at this, so please any input is appreciated. |
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kjb
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 660
Location: Washington, DC
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| Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 5:40 pm Post subject: |
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What are you trying to do with the data? What do you hope to learn? Are you trying to see whether offensive fouls have an inverse relationship with offensive rating? Something else?
The question you're trying to answer will shape what you want to do with the data you're collecting.
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supersub15
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Posts: 78
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| Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 6:00 pm Post subject: |
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| kjb wrote: | What are you trying to do with the data? What do you hope to learn? Are you trying to see whether offensive fouls have an inverse relationship with offensive rating? Something else?
The question you're trying to answer will shape what you want to do with the data you're collecting. |
I would like to classify all players in the league in percentage of their possessions that lead to offensive fouls, i.e. who's the most prone to committing an offensive foul. |
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kjb
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 660
Location: Washington, DC
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| Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 6:07 pm Post subject: |
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A couple ways I can see of going about it. One would be to use DeanO's system for estimating individual possessions (described in Basketball On Paper). A quicker way (sort of a hack), might be to use Hollinger's usage stat, then do an adjustment so that it matches total team possessions. I don't remember the exact number off the top of my head, but if you multiply Hollinger's possessions (fga + .44 x fta + .33 x ast + tov) by something like .81, you'll get individual possessions that add up to total team possessions.
Once you have individual possessions, simply divide offensive fouls by individual possessions and voila -- offensive fouls percentage.
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kjb
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 660
Location: Washington, DC
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| Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 6:09 pm Post subject: |
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I just checked my spreadsheet -- multiply Hollinger possesions by 0.819731698 to get individual possessions that add up to the team totals.*
* Team totals are arrived at using the formula recently published by Dan, Dean, et al. -- .976 x (fga + .44 x fta - oreb + tov). Run the formula on both team and opponent, and average the two to have the best estimate for team possessions.
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supersub15
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Posts: 78
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| Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 6:16 pm Post subject: |
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| kjb wrote: | A couple ways I can see of going about it. One would be to use DeanO's system for estimating individual possessions (described in Basketball On Paper). A quicker way (sort of a hack), might be to use Hollinger's usage stat, then do an adjustment so that it matches total team possessions. I don't remember the exact number off the top of my head, but if you multiply Hollinger's possessions (fga + .44 x fta + .33 x ast + tov) by something like .81, you'll get individual possessions that add up to total team possessions.
Once you have individual possessions, simply divide offensive fouls by individual possessions and voila -- offensive fouls percentage. |
Knowing that Jorge Garbajosa has 6 offensive fouls in 67 games and his usage rate is 14.0, I thought I'd figure out first the number of offensive fouls per game (0.08955). Then, per game, his offensive foul percentage would be 0.08955 * 100 / 14.0 = 0.64%.
Is that right? |
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kjb
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 660
Location: Washington, DC
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| Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 6:40 pm Post subject: |
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Usage rate (as Hollinger calculates it) is per 40 minutes, not per game. What I'm suggesting would be to calculate Garbojosa's total Hollinger possessions (HP from now on).
So, it's 529 fga + .44 x 78 fta + .33 x 125 ast + 64 tov. That comes out to 669 HPs (rounded). Then multiply that number by 0.819731698 and we get 548 (rounded) kjb possessions.
Then divide 6 offensive fouls by 548 possessions -- which comes out 0.0109. Or (put in English), Garbajoso commits an offensive foul on about 1.09% of his possessions.
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supersub15
Joined: 21 Sep 2006
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| Posted: Fri Jul 27, 2007 7:04 pm Post subject: |
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| kjb wrote: | Usage rate (as Hollinger calculates it) is per 40 minutes, not per game. What I'm suggesting would be to calculate Garbojosa's total Hollinger possessions (HP from now on).
So, it's 529 fga + .44 x 78 fta + .33 x 125 ast + 64 tov. That comes out to 669 HPs (rounded). Then multiply that number by 0.819731698 and we get 548 (rounded) kjb possessions.
Then divide 6 offensive fouls by 548 possessions -- which comes out 0.0109. Or (put in English), Garbajoso commits an offensive foul on about 1.09% of his possessions. |
Gotcha. It was easier to understand with an actual example. I'll get to work on this now. |
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Ben F.
Joined: 07 Mar 2005
Posts: 283
Location: MD
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| Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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| Also, if you don't want to go through all the work of analyzing the PBP yourself, 82games publishes offensive fouls on every player page. |
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