APBRmetrics

Nikos · Joined: 16 Jan 2005 Posts: 339

I watched this guy in the playoffs and he looked real bad offensively, and was not himself defensively either. He did look decent against Golden State, but I am left puzzled as to why he has digressed so much this season.

Utah gets Boozer back, and Deron is a legit quality point guard, and Okur has been very good. Yet Kirilienko seems to have disgressed to the point where he is a mediocre player? How is that possible? The guy had virtually crap as a supporting cast in 2003-04 and he managed to at least lead the team to respectablility. And that was a team where he was essentially the #1 option, AND he played elite team defense.

In terms of Dean Oliver's skill curves, Kirilienko's demise this season really makes no sense. Could it be a fluke? Well he be back to being like a crappier passing, weaker man defending, better shot blocking version of Scottie Pippen?

What gives here? His PER dropped from 22 on average of the last four seasons to a measly 14! And this is with STRONGER teamattes, and considering the fact that he isn't a type of player to carry an offense, he shouldn't have digressed much at all!

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1521 Location: Delphi, Indiana

This was a thread back in January:

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=1130

Here's how AK did in these playoffs, compared to his career rates and this season:

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1521 Location: Delphi, Indiana

The whole Jazz lineup went thru crazy ups and downs from series to series. For simplicity, just their series 'total productivity' rates (in approximate order of size):

mateo82 · Joined: 06 Aug 2005 Posts: 199

Foremost, injuries could have played a large role. Actually I'm not surprised that Kirilenko has had a difficult time adjusting to better teammates. Offensively he has very little scoring ability and counters this through solid playmaking skills, but that has become unnecessary now that the Jazz have the pieces to run a proper motion offense. Defensively he's always been a guy who fishes for blocks and steals.. so injuries probably accounts for the reduced production there.

I wouldn't be surprised if his production went back up if he's traded this offseason (which seems fairly likely).

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1521 Location: Delphi, Indiana

It's surely a small sample size, but in 17 playoff games, his five best games were vs the Warriors. His worst game of the 5 was as good or better than any of his other 12. Did he 'uninjure' after Hou and reinjure vs SA ?

He was never a 'playoff overachiever' in brief appearances before this year. Now he has one good series, out of a career total of 5. The other 4 were all well below his norms. In his regular-season games, has he always laid waste to below-average teams while wilting vs strong teams?
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Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1521 Location: Delphi, Indiana

anarcholis · Joined: 12 Jun 2007 Posts: 11

Going back to the original question of why Kirilenko is doing poorly....

Nikos said that he's not the kind of guy who can carry an offense and that now he has much better teammates. I agree completely. I also thing that this is exactly the reason that he's doing poorly.

Jerry Sloan runs a very inflexible offense. He's trying to rebuild Stockton-to-Malone with Williams and Boozer. Whether this will work or not is beyond my knowledge, but I think that its having a detrimental effect on Kirilenko. AK isn't the kind of guy who can thrive in a pick and roll offense. He's not big enough to be the 4 (Boozer the bulldozer sets picks much better), He's not big enough to play the 5 which would keep him near the basket. He doesn't have the perimeter skills to play 3 in this lineup. I seem to remember Donyell Marshall playing 3 in the later years of Stockton-to-Malone, and he is certainly a better outside shooter than Kirilenko.

Kirilenko excels as an undersized 4 who can stay close to the lane, strip big men in the paint, block drivingguards, and get scrappy baskets around the hoop. He's not a great one-on-one lockdown defender, but he's one of the best help defenders in the league. Having Kirilenko chasing a quicker small forward around the 3-Point line does not play to his strengths defensively. Having him hang out in the opposite corner and wait for hte ball to get kicked out to him does not play to his strengths offensively. What we're left with is an across the board decline in production, because the Jazz's system simply can't use Kirilenko's skills. What advantage to Kirilenko's game is having a real point guard like Williams? Kirilenko can't drain threes, and can't post up under the glass. Boozer, on the other hand, saw his stats go through the roof with a real point guard around.

In summary: Utah should trade him. Plenty of teams could start him at 4 and feel much better about it, and Utah needs some outside shooting....plus a real perimeter defender.

One piece of actual evidence to back up a largely subjective arguement: according to 82games.com, Kirilenko played 8% of his minutes at 4 this year (and the rest at 3) with a PER of 14. The last three years he played 33, 61, and 58% of his minutes at 4 with PER of 20, 24, and 22. Could be a coincidence, but I think not.