APBRmetrics Forum Index APBRmetrics
The statistical revolution will not be televised.
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

2007 Playoffs: New Jersey - Toronto

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    APBRmetrics Forum Index -> General discussion
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1539
Location: Delphi, Indiana
PostPosted: Sun May 06, 2007 8:33 pm    Post subject: 2007 Playoffs: New Jersey - Toronto Reply with quote
The Nets suddenly play their best ball of the year.
Code:
 eW    per-36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk    T
1.12  Kidd,Jason        NJ   38   .583   16.3  10.4  12.8   2.3  1.9   3.0   .3   42.4
.86   Carter,Vince      NJ   39   .519   25.5   6.3   3.8   2.6   .8   2.9   .8   34.9
.75   Jefferson,Richard NJ   40   .597   24.8   5.0   2.4   1.5   .8   2.0   .5   31.9
.65   Bosh,Chris       Tor   37   .477   16.4  10.0   2.1   3.1   .8   1.9  1.9   30.3
.56   Ford,T.J.        Tor   23   .555   28.3   3.0   5.6   1.9  1.9   3.7  1.1   37.9
.41   Calderon,Jose    Tor   24   .542   20.9   2.8   7.0   3.0  1.2   3.7   .2   29.7
.40   Parker,Anthony   Tor   40   .558   15.2   5.5    .8   2.7  1.4   1.1   .6   22.5
.40   Nachbar,Bostjan   NJ   26   .602   22.3   4.5   2.6   4.1   .7   2.1   .0   27.7
.32   Bargnani,Andrea  Tor   30   .595   15.6   5.5   1.1   3.2  1.0   1.4  1.0   22.9
.24   Moore,Mikki       NJ   30   .523   10.3   8.7   1.3   4.6   .8   1.4  1.0   20.5
.12   Nesterovic,Rasho Tor   12   .515    8.8  13.1   1.3   2.0   .0   2.0  1.0   22.4
.12   Boone,Josh        NJ   11   .647   15.8   7.6    .5   4.2   .0   1.6  1.1   23.0
.11   Wright,Antoine    NJ   15   .500   11.3   6.5    .4   3.1  1.2   1.2  1.2   19.5
.10   Peterson,Morris  Tor   31   .641   10.1   6.0    .3   3.9   .4   1.2   .4   15.4
.04   Williams,Marcus   NJ    9   .367    9.7   5.2   5.5   1.3   .7   5.3   .0   16.3
.01   Dixon,Juan       Tor   11   .429    8.9   2.6   1.5   3.4  3.9   5.6  1.1   12.6
.00   Humphries,Kris   Tor   12   .346    3.4  10.1    .5   5.7   .5   1.6   .5   12.3
-.01  Graham,Joey      Tor   18   .340    3.7   7.5    .6   3.9  1.3   2.0   .7   11.3
-.04  Collins,Jason     NJ   28   .704    6.1   5.5    .2   4.8  1.3   2.0   .2   10.4

_________________
40% of all statistics are wrong.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
gabefarkas



Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 884
Location: Durham, NC
PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2007 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Personally, I'd say Kidd was playing out of his gourd, while everyone else was performing up to expectations (playoff drop-offs taken into consideration). After Kidd, wouldn't you say that Carter, Jefferson, Bosh, and Ford were the best regular season performers, too? Your T-rates for them are all in the same ballpark, as far as I can tell.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail AIM Address
Mark



Joined: 20 Aug 2005
Posts: 807
PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2007 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
NJ took more 3ptrs than average of Raptors regular season opponents and made a better FG% of them. That seems like the biggest factor in NJ win.

Players and teams get reviewed on 4 factors. Long term coaches and even GMs could as well to identify priorities, trends.

Raptors went from fouling frequently in 05-06 season to one of lowest fouling rates this season. GM let go most of the high rate of fouling players from previous season and both Parker and Garbojosa are low fouling rate. Some returning players reduced fouling rate too.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
THWilson



Joined: 19 Jul 2005
Posts: 132
Location: phoenix
PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2007 5:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
gabefarkas wrote:
Personally, I'd say Kidd was playing out of his gourd, while everyone else was performing up to expectations (playoff drop-offs taken into consideration). After Kidd, wouldn't you say that Carter, Jefferson, Bosh, and Ford were the best regular season performers, too? Your T-rates for them are all in the same ballpark, as far as I can tell.


Jefferson's PER was 20 in the series, 15 in the season...that's pretty big.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
John Beattie



Joined: 26 Jan 2007
Posts: 36
Location: NYC
PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2007 6:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
As an aside: was it my imagination or were there bunches of empty seats visible in the Nets’ arena during the broadcast of game six against the Raptors? How could that be.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1539
Location: Delphi, Indiana
PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2007 7:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Here's a look at how I've gauged playoff over/unders, in equivalent pts/G for players, relative to their 2007 regular seasons.
Code:
over   Player
2.7   Kidd,Jason
2.5   Jefferson,Richard
1.0   Nachbar,Bostjan
 .5   Wright,Antoine
 .2   Boone,Josh
 .0   Collins,Jason
-.4   Williams,Marcus
-.7   Carter,Vince
-.9   Moore,Mikki
4.8   NETS
   
 1.1   Ford,T.J.
  .4   Calderon,Jose
  .4   Bargnani,Andrea
 -.2   Nesterovic,Rasho
 -.3   Parker,Anthony
 -.6   Dixon,Juan
 -.8   Humphries,Kris
-1.4   Graham,Joey
-1.5   Peterson,Morris
-2.0   Bosh,Chris
-4.8   RAPS


If the Nets did 4.8 PPG better than expected, and the Raptors did 4.8 worse, should the spread have swung 9.6 altogether? In fact, Sagarin's ratings would predict Tor to win by an average of 1.2 ppg; but they lost by 6.2 ppg.

The symmetric +/-4.8 is not coincidence. I've figured the average production in this series was 1.064 of the regular season's for the players involved. Thus TJ Ford's mammoth scoring rate is scaled down to a modest improvement. Scaling to the league average of .948 (which is right around the historic average) makes all players in this series look good -- and everyone in the Hou/Uta slugfest appear underachieving.
_________________
40% of all statistics are wrong.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
gabefarkas



Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 884
Location: Durham, NC
PostPosted: Mon May 07, 2007 10:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
John Beattie wrote:
As an aside: was it my imagination or were there bunches of empty seats visible in the Nets’ arena during the broadcast of game six against the Raptors? How could that be.


Have you ever tried to get to the Meadowlands? A few years ago when they Nets were in the playoffs (the year they lost to the Lakers) I had bought a package of playoff tickets and ended up selling about half the tickets because of the hassle associated with the commute.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail AIM Address
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    APBRmetrics Forum Index -> General discussion All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group