APBRmetrics

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1521 Location: Delphi, Indiana

A number of shocking improvements in the ranks. Interestingly but not surprisingly, most are in the West.

Subtracting last year's per-minute rates from this year's (pace-adjusted, etc), these are players who have added production in the minutes they've played this year (minus production in same minutes last year).

161 Kevin Martin Sac
129 Carlos Boozer Uta
127 Deron Williams Uta
121 Andris Biedrins GS
118 Fabricio Oberto SA
115 Andrew Bynum LAL
110 Zach Randolph Por
108 Emeka Okafor Cha
98 Antoine Wright NJ
89 David Lee NY
88 Mickael Pietrus GS
84 Monta Ellis GS
78 Quentin Richardson NY
78 Luke Walton LAL
78 Tim Duncan SA
70 J.R. Smith Den
67 Joe Johnson Atl
64 Ime Udoka Por
62 Yao Ming Hou
62 Etan Thomas Was

The east-west disparity is even grimmer considering that I've not added any strength-of-schedule adjustment. Even so, only 4 of the top 16 are easterners.

Reversing the order of the list, here are the 'regressors':

-167 Gerald Wallace Cha
-149 Dwyane Wade Mia
-137 Kobe Bryant LAL
-122 Elton Brand LAC
-111 Stephon Marbury NY
-106 Antoine Walker Mia
-87 Ben Wallace Chi
-87 Allen Iverson Phi
-79 Juan Dixon Por
-76 Hedo Turkoglu Orl
-75 Chauncey Billups Det
-74 Eddy Curry NY
-74 Boris Diaw Pho
-73 Jason Richardson GS
-72 Alonzo Mourning Mia
-72 Richard Jefferson NJ
-71 Shaquille O'Neal Mia
-66 Mike James Min
-66 Shawn Marion Pho
-65 Kenny Thomas Sac

Several of these are coming off career years; some career trajectories are falling off the table; and others will be known as 'flash in the pan' types.

Doesn't Wade always start slowly?

(Edited heavily after major error found)
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gabefarkas · Joined: 31 Dec 2004 Posts: 881 Location: Durham, NC

I think he does always start slowly, actually.

I've had him on my fantasy teams several times and remember thinking "is this the year he's going to hit the wall?"

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1521 Location: Delphi, Indiana

Here are team totals of continuing-players' improvements. Normalized, kindasorta, to add to zero.

kjb · Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 671 Location: Washington, DC

I'm not surprised to see Washington at -135. They're a) struggling; and b) seem pretty insistent on putting less effective players on the floor than they could be using. The team is better when either Thomas or Haywood is on the floor, but they've combined to play just 82% of the team's minutes at center. And DeShawn Stevenson inexplicably has played about the same number of minutes as Antonio Daniels. Ruffin has played 11% of the team's minutes, which doesn't sound like a lot except that the team has been outscored 58 points during his time on the floor. And unfortunately, very little of that was garbage time.
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Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1521 Location: Delphi, Indiana

For the Wizzers, Etan Thomas is dramatically better than last year. Everyone else is definitely worse.
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kjb · Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 671 Location: Washington, DC

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1521 Location: Delphi, Indiana

For all their improvement, the Warriors are not among the playoff-bound -- if the regular season were to end now -- at 9-7.

Over in the East, only 4 teams are better than 6-8.
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HRB · Joined: 04 Sep 2006 Posts: 9

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1521 Location: Delphi, Indiana

According to Sagarin, GS is the #5 team in the league. They have had an average-strength schedule to date (ranked #14), given a 3.06-point advantage to the home team. Their +3.3 ppg-diff is #7 in the league.

The top eastern team is Orlando, at #8. Chicago, with the 2nd-toughest schedule so far, is next (#11). The Cavs have had the easiest schedule of anyone, sport a 2.8 ppg differential, and are ranked only #16.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0607.htm

Early-season conclusions may seem pretty wacky, but I actually think the method is both sound and consistent.
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capnhistory · Posted: Tue Dec 05, 2006 8:23 pm Post subject:

I just quickly took Mike's chart and checked each division for their aggregate/average improvement/decline. In the Atlantic no one made especially great gains or losses compared to the average, so we may see a high level of competitive balance in that division relative to each other. The Southeast seems to be in a general decline which may bolster Orlando's mild improvements into big dividends. The same could also be said for Cleveland in the Central. Also San Antonio was the only team to show improvements in the Southwest (though the Mavs may still turn it around) so they may dominate the regular season more easily. The Central and Pacific don't offer any immediate insights, so I'll leave those for another time.
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THWilson · Joined: 19 Jul 2005 Posts: 128 Location: phoenix

Ben · Joined: 13 Jan 2005 Posts: 202 Location: Iowa City

tHe_pEsTiLeNcE · Joined: 09 Aug 2006 Posts: 92 Location: where you aren't

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1521 Location: Delphi, Indiana

Kevin Martin has cooled off considerably. The West still has the 7 biggest improvers, and 22 of the top 30.

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 1521 Location: Delphi, Indiana

I'm going to try to show big-3-category rates, along with effective shooting %, for this year and last year.