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Memphis
Joined: 22 Oct 2007
Posts: 2
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 Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 10:59 pm Post subject: Foul points per game |
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I am doing some research and I've been scouring the internet to a statistical question that I can't seem to find anywhere. Perhaps somebody here can help me:
I need to know the AVERAGE number of points that a team scores due to free throws in the AVERAGE NBA game. Any statistically significant period of time will due. I assume that a single season would be representative of numerous seasons.
To go with that, I would like the AVERAGE number of total points a team scores in a game.
Basically, I'm trying to figure out WHAT PERCENTAGE of NBA points can be attributed to shots from the free throw line -and- is the winning margin typically within this parameter.
Just as an example:
The AVERAGE number of total points scored by an NBA team is 91.4/game.
The AVERAGE number of points due to free throws is 17.3/game.
The AVERAGE winning margin is 7.6 points.
I have no idea if these numbers are even close, but I'm looking for something like this.
Thanks!
David Emerling
Memphis, TN |
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Posts: 255
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devin3807
Joined: 11 Oct 2007
Posts: 4
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| Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 2:49 am Post subject: |
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No to get off-track, but I ran those numbers that you posted in order to compare the frequency of each point differential to the ones the author of that piece posted:
One notable difference, assuming, of course, that I ran the numbers right (I did get that same 10.58 margin of victory as you), is that in both of his years, the most common point differential was 7, however for the 06-07 season it was the 6th most common.
His numbers:
01-02
7-points 7.4%
5-points 7.1%
6-points 6.9%
3-points 6.6%
9-points 6.4%
2-points 6.2%
8-points 5.3%
4-points 5.2%
Unsure of year
7-points 7.3%
5-points 7.3%
2-points 6.5%
6-points 6.4%
3-points 5.8%
8-points 5.6%
9-points 5.1%
4-points 4.3%
For comparison:
06-07
Note: These aren't all of them, I just stopped at 25
By the way, this is my first post here, however I've browsed around here for a little while and I must say, I really enjoy reading the material around here. You guys do a great job. |
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devin3807
Joined: 11 Oct 2007
Posts: 4
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| Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 3:21 am Post subject: Re: Foul points per game |
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| Quote: | Just as an example:
The AVERAGE number of total points scored by an NBA team is 91.4/game.
The AVERAGE number of points due to free throws is 17.3/game.
The AVERAGE winning margin is 7.6 points.
I have no idea if these numbers are even close, but I'm looking for something like this.
Thanks!
David Emerling
Memphis, TN |
For 06-07:
The AVERAGE number of total points scored by an NBA team is 98.72
The AVERAGE number of points due to free throws is 19.61
The AVERAGE winning margin is 10.58
| Memphis wrote: | I am doing some research and I've been scouring the internet to a statistical question that I can't seem to find anywhere. Perhaps somebody here can help me:
I need to know the AVERAGE number of points that a team scores due to free throws in the AVERAGE NBA game. Any statistically significant period of time will due. I assume that a single season would be representative of numerous seasons.
To go with that, I would like the AVERAGE number of total points a team scores in a game.
Basically, I'm trying to figure out WHAT PERCENTAGE of NBA points can be attributed to shots from the free throw line -and- is the winning margin typically within this parameter. |
19.87% |
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Posts: 255
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| Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 11:18 am Post subject: |
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Hey Devin.
The frequency table on margin of victory you highlighted adds detail perhaps useful to this specific inquiry and in general.
A fuller dataset on margin of victory pattern might be worth finding or pursuing for various reasons including in relation to the referee scandal to see if it was very isolated or bigger. I guess you'd have to get a handle on how much fluctuation year to year is normal and what qualifies as an unusual shift. |
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Memphis
Joined: 22 Oct 2007
Posts: 2
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| Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 9:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Mountain wrote: | Hey Devin.
The frequency table on margin of victory you highlighted adds detail perhaps useful to this specific inquiry and in general.
A fuller dataset on margin of victory pattern might be worth finding or pursuing for various reasons including in relation to the referee scandal to see if it was very isolated or bigger. I guess you'd have to get a handle on how much fluctuation year to year is normal and what qualifies as an unusual shift. |
The problem with using margin of victory for ferreting out any notion of "cheating" on the part of officials is that you have to assume that they are cheating in BOTH directions; i.e. calling a foul when there really was none /or/ not calling a foul when one existed; in which case it would appear as a statistical wash since they would be canceling each other out.
The thing to do is focus on a particular official who is suspected of cheating and see if there is a consistent "imbalance" to how he calls fouls in his games. My guess is that for most officials, on the average, they call as many fouls for one team as they do for the other. You might call this a "foul spread." If an official's "foul spread" falls well outside the norm, that might be reason for suspicion.
David Emerling
Memphis, TN |
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Mountain
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Posts: 255
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| Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 10:29 pm Post subject: |
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Hey Memphis.
Yes ferreting out fraud would be painstaking work and ultimately have to look at individual ref records as it has been.
Still if you found a significant change in margin of victory distribution I think you'd want to investigate it, broadly and then in more detail according to your other clues. Specific refs, home teams, favorites, the line, big city markets vs small, etc.
I was briefly referencing the topic and wasnt able to give it all the time & detail it would deserve.
Hope the information we found you was useful. |
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