APBRmetrics Forum Index APBRmetrics
The statistical revolution will not be televised.
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Players likely to get better or worse

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    APBRmetrics Forum Index -> General discussion
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1532
Location: Delphi, Indiana

PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 9:11 am    Post subject: Players likely to get better or worse Reply with quote

From a secret formula, I've analyzed 138 current player careers for their tendencies over the last 5 seasons. A few careers of 3-4 years are considered, for premier players. I didn't use age as a factor; whether a player is 25 or 35, if he's gotten better (or worse) each of the last 5 years, the formula predicts same next year.

Here are players to avoid, as their careers seem to be falling off the table. Some have already hit the floor, but they might yet appear as fill-in material; listed in order of productivity loss expected (as a decimal fraction):
Code:
-.285  Kenyon Martin
-.283  Gary Payton
-.254  Michael Olowokandi
-.243  Clifford Robinson
-.240  Aaron Mckie
-.212  Lorenzen Wright
-.202  Jeff Mcinnis
-.197  Theo Ratliff
-.197  Malik Rose
-.178  Raef Lafrentz
-.163  Stephon Marbury
-.157  Jalen Rose
-.154  Antoine Walker
-.143  Andrei Kirilenko
-.136  Shareef Abdur-Rahim
-.133  Eddie Jones
-.133  Marko Jaric
-.130  Eric Piatkowski
-.125  Kurt Thomas
-.123  Steve Francis
-.119  Kenny Thomas
-.116  Corliss Williamson
-.113  Donyell Marshall
-.111  P.J. Brown
-.109  Brad Miller
-.105  Jamaal Magloire
-.103  Kelvin Cato
-.103  Desmond Mason

So all these players are expected (by the magic formula) to produce 10-28% less in any minutes in which they may appear. (I realize some have announced retirement, and others do not appear on any roster; but you never know.)

Some of these guys weren't big producers to begin with, so here they are by magnitude of loss. I'll go ahead and scale to PER loss (roughly), relative to 2006-07:
Code:
-2.7   Kenyon Martin
-2.6   Gary Payton
-2.2   Stephon Marbury
-2.0   Andrei Kirilenko
-1.8   Kevin Garnett
-1.7   Lorenzen Wright
-1.7   Malik Rose
-1.7   Steve Francis
-1.7   Shareef Abdur-Rahim
-1.6   Raef Lafrentz
-1.6   Clifford Robinson
-1.6   Aaron Mckie
-1.6   Antoine Walker
-1.6   Michael Olowokandi
-1.6   Jalen Rose
-1.5   Donyell Marshall
-1.5   Theo Ratliff
-1.5   Jeff Mcinnis
-1.5   Eddie Jones
-1.4   Brad Miller
-1.4   Kurt Thomas
-1.3   Richard Jefferson
-1.3   P.J. Brown
-1.3   Shaquille O'Neal
-1.3   Kenny Thomas
-1.2   Allen Iverson


Now here are the big gainers to look for, in PER-ness:
Code:
2.3   Josh Howard
2.3   Dwyane Wade
2.1   Dwight Howard
1.9   Manu Ginobili
1.8   Chris Bosh
1.8   Carlos Boozer
1.8   Tony Parker
1.6   Emeka Okafor
1.5   Yao Ming
1.5   Steve Nash
1.4   Lebron James
1.3   Carmelo Anthony
1.1   Dirk Nowitzki
1.1   Joe Johnson
1.0   Gilbert Arenas
0.9   Caron Butler
0.9   Nazr Mohammed
0.8   Marcus Camby
0.7   Mehmet Okur
0.7   Drew Gooden
0.7   Zach Randolph

Predicting whether a guy has peaked already is key here. For Steve Nash, I would've predicted that last year, and the year before, and the year before.

As a % of improvement expected:
Code:
.066   Josh Howard
.056   Dwight Howard
.052   Dwyane Wade
.051   Chris Bosh
.049   Emeka Okafor
.045   Manu Ginobili
.045   Tony Parker
.042   Carlos Boozer
.039   Steve Nash
.037   Carmelo Anthony
.036   Joe Johnson
.034   Yao Ming
.033   Lebron James
.032   Caron Butler
.031   Nazr Mohammed
.028   Gilbert Arenas
.028   Lindsey Hunter
.025   Dirk Nowitzki
.025   Ruben Patterson
.023   Marcus Camby
.023   Mehmet Okur
.022   Drew Gooden

_________________
40% of all statistics are wrong.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
kjb



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 675
Location: Washington, DC

PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 9:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting to see your secret formula predict a gain for Caron Butler while Hollinger is predicting a drop.
_________________
My blog
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website AIM Address Yahoo Messenger
deepak_e



Joined: 26 Apr 2006
Posts: 335

PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 10:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For each player, are you only considering his history the last 5 years, or do league-wide tendencies factor in?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
bchaikin



Joined: 27 Jan 2005
Posts: 512
Location: cleveland, ohio

PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

for the most part i'd say your magic formula is dead on, with just a couple of exceptions:

- i'd swap nazr mohammed to your loss in productivity list. of the 260 players to have played at least 2000 total minutes the past two seasons, he's got the 2nd highest rate of fouls committed (16 fouls per 100 minutes played), and he'll be 30 years of age in 07-08. also his turnovers per touch were the highest of his career the past two seasons since his first two years in the league. unless antonio mcdyess or rasheed wallace gets injured, i doubt he plays even 20 min/g in 07-08 (he did however play 28 min/g for the knicks in 04-05 when he fouled much less)...

- zach randolph will be sharing the low post with eddy curry in 07-08, after having been the blazers main low post threat last year and shooting better than he had in four seasons. thus in 07-08 he may suffer a significant drop in FG% like channing frye did in 06-07 compared to 05-06. in 05-06 curry and frye mostly split the C minutes, and frye shot more from in close to the basket than in 06-07 when curry played 81 games and 35 min/g at C and frye played C/PF...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Tim Lehrbach



Joined: 03 Dec 2006
Posts: 22

PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 6:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bchaikin wrote:
- zach randolph will be sharing the low post with eddy curry in 07-08, after having been the blazers main low post threat last year and shooting better than he had in four seasons. thus in 07-08 he may suffer a significant drop in FG% like channing frye did in 06-07 compared to 05-06. in 05-06 curry and frye mostly split the C minutes, and frye shot more from in close to the basket than in 06-07 when curry played 81 games and 35 min/g at C and frye played C/PF...


According to 82games, Randolph was already taking 59% of his attempts as jump shots last season, anyway. My memory (having watched 75-80 Portland games) confirms that as accurate. He is still an effective post player, but his elbow-and-out face-up game is just as important to his arsenal now. I think he'll be fine next to Curry.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
bchaikin



Joined: 27 Jan 2005
Posts: 512
Location: cleveland, ohio

PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 12:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Randolph was already taking 59% of his attempts as jump shots last season, anyway. My memory (having watched 75-80 Portland games) confirms that as accurate. He is still an effective post player, but his elbow-and-out face-up game is just as important to his arsenal now.

if you look at mr. randolph's 82games.com stats, his inside eFG%s the last 3 seasons have been pretty consistent, between 54%-55%. but his jump shot eFG%s were at just under 42% last season and below 39% each of the previous two years. last year his overall eFG% was 47.2%, which was 2.6% less than just the league average of 49.6%, and that was his best eFG% in 3 seasons. in 04-05 and 05-06 his eFG%s were more than 3%-4% less than just the league average eFG%...

i'm guessing that if in playing alongside eddy curry he ends up taking a higher percentage of his total FGA from outside compared to inside than he has in the past (which could very well happen if curry remains the knicks' primary low post threat), that his eFG% is going to go back down. plus even though he has gotten fouled alot and hit his FTs at close to 80% these last 3 seasons, his overall shooting or ScFG% these 3 years has still not been as good as even the league average overall shooting, primarily because while the average 2pt FG% for PFs the last 3 years has been 49%, randolph has shot less than 46% on 2s...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1532
Location: Delphi, Indiana

PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 6:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, there are cases -- some more obvious than others -- of players who should not be expected to continue their 5-years trends. I don't really expect Nowitzki, Boozer, Parker, Nash, Camby, Zach, or Nazr to continue rising another year. But they might.

I was just using a trend analysis, irrespective of context. If, rather than being traded, the Blazers had decided to build a team around Randolph (and drafted Durant?), then his 'PER' improvement might be even greater than this modest couple of %.

The point is that players are going uphill in their career trajectories, until they aren't. Steadily down is seldom reversed.

Mohammed is one kind of anomaly. Five years back, his career kind of bottomed out. He's improved every year since (in T rate), or in 3 of 4 years (PER).

He's a steady 15-12 (per40) guy; last 2 years he shot 56%; 2.2 TO/40 is hardly alarming. He fouls way too much to get minutes, but PER doesn't care about MPG.
_________________
40% of all statistics are wrong.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Tim Lehrbach



Joined: 03 Dec 2006
Posts: 22

PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 7:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bchaikin wrote:
if you look at mr. randolph's 82games.com stats, his inside eFG%s the last 3 seasons have been pretty consistent, between 54%-55%. but his jump shot eFG%s were at just under 42% last season and below 39% each of the previous two years. last year his overall eFG% was 47.2%, which was 2.6% less than just the league average of 49.6%, and that was his best eFG% in 3 seasons. in 04-05 and 05-06 his eFG%s were more than 3%-4% less than just the league average eFG%...

i'm guessing that if in playing alongside eddy curry he ends up taking a higher percentage of his total FGA from outside compared to inside than he has in the past (which could very well happen if curry remains the knicks' primary low post threat), that his eFG% is going to go back down. plus even though he has gotten fouled alot and hit his FTs at close to 80% these last 3 seasons, his overall shooting or ScFG% these 3 years has still not been as good as even the league average overall shooting, primarily because while the average 2pt FG% for PFs the last 3 years has been 49%, randolph has shot less than 46% on 2s...


Yeah, I wasn't suggesting Randolph has been an efficient scorer (and so will continue to be one), just that I am not certain his game will have to adjust to Curry all that much. Even among his inside field goal attempts, a lot of those came from beating his man after facing up, not necessarily from occupying the low block, where we agree Curry will be most of the time.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
CareyScurry



Joined: 29 Jul 2005
Posts: 5

PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 10:08 pm    Post subject: What question, exactly, are you answering? Reply with quote

Is this the increase in production from last season, or from weighted average of the past five years, or something else?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1532
Location: Delphi, Indiana

PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2007 5:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Predicted PER change from last season to the upcoming season. I didn't study individual circumstances. Even though I think Wade's PER was overblown last year, his trend is still upward.

deepak wrote:
Quote:
For each player, are you only considering his history the last 5 years, or do league-wide tendencies factor in?

Missed this earlier. You mean like, do players (of a given type) tend to stop improving (or drop off) at a certain age? No, everyone's different, until they prove otherwise.

Anyway, I should have a more comprehensive listing coming along shortly.
_________________
40% of all statistics are wrong.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1532
Location: Delphi, Indiana

PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 5:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Having now looked at 301 current careers (of at least 2 seasons), another list. There's a lot more uncertainty in a 2-year 'trend' -- which amounts to just projecting last year's T-Rate improvement to next year's -- and so I'm just going to separate out 2- and 3-year careers. 4 years isn't a lot different from 5, so they'll be lumped in together.

From the 4+ years group, the biggest expected improvers, in the MikeG T-rate (no longer 'scaling' to PER):
Code:
imp    player        team   2007   2008?  imp%
4.5   Gerald Wallace  Cha   29.7   34.2   1.15
4.0   David West       NO   29.0   33.0   1.14
3.9   Josh Howard     Dal   32.9   36.9   1.12
3.9   Dwyane Wade     Mia   42.2   46.2   1.09
3.6   Dwight Howard   Orl   35.1   38.7   1.10

3.2   Manu Ginobili    SA   39.9   43.1   1.08
3.2   Chris Bosh      Tor   34.6   37.8   1.09
3.1   Carlos Boozer   Uta   40.9   44.0   1.08
3.0   Tony Parker      SA   37.9   41.0   1.08
3.0   Darko Milicic   Orl   21.5   24.5   1.14

2.9   Zaza Pachulia   Atl   25.3   28.2   1.11
2.8   Emeka Okafor    Cha   31.0   33.8   1.09
2.7   Boris Diaw      Pho   19.9   22.6   1.14
2.7   Yao Ming        Hou   44.0   46.6   1.06
2.6   Leandro Barbosa Pho   25.4   28.1   1.10

2.6   Steve Nash      Pho   38.2   40.8   1.07
2.6   Luke Walton     LAL   22.7   25.2   1.11
2.5   Matt Carroll    Cha   22.5   25.0   1.11
2.4   Lebron James    Cle   40.8   43.1   1.06
2.3   Carmelo Anthony Den   34.6   36.9   1.07

2.2   Sasha Pavlovic  Cle   19.9   22.1   1.11
2.2   Matt Barnes      GS   21.4   23.6   1.10
2.0   Earl Watson     Sea   19.4   21.4   1.10
2.0   Dirk Nowitzki   Dal   44.0   45.9   1.04

Sticking to my guns, so to speak, I'm not subjectively saying 'Nash won't keep improving', or 'Dirk doesn't look that good'. These guys are still on the upswing. If everyone improves these amounts, teams will average 42.6 wins!

Here are 3-year players whose 4th is expected to be better:
Code:
imp    player        team   2007   2008?  %imp
7.7   Kevin Martin    Sac   28.5   36.3   1.27
4.4   Al Jefferson    Bos   31.7   36.1   1.14
4.3   T.J. Ford       Tor   29.0   33.3   1.15
3.7   Andre Iguodala  Phi   26.4   30.1   1.14
3.4   Luol Deng       Chi   30.0   33.4   1.11

3.3   Josh Smith      Atl   29.3   32.6   1.11
3.2   Tony Allen      Bos   24.7   28.0   1.13
3.2   Andris Biedrins  GS   24.7   27.9   1.13
3.0   Andres Nocioni  Chi   27.7   30.8   1.11
2.9   Nenad Krstic     NJ   27.9   30.7   1.10

2.6   Ben Gordon      Chi   29.7   32.3   1.09
2.3   J.R. Smith      Den   23.2   25.4   1.10
2.0   Quinton Ross    LAC   16.7   18.7   1.12

So many Bulls!
With a very large grain of salt, the 3rd year of these players:
Code:
imp    player         team   2007   2008?  %imp
8.2   Andrew Bynum     LAL   24.4   32.7   1.34
6.6   Shelden Williams Atl   20.2   26.8   1.33
6.5   Jose Calderon    Tor   24.1   30.6   1.27
5.8   David Lee         NY   27.8   33.6   1.21
5.7   Deron Williams   Uta   27.5   33.2   1.21
2.5   Marvin Williams  Atl   20.4   22.9   1.12
2.3   Joey Graham      Tor   18.9   21.2   1.12

A latter-day wave of Williamses.
_________________
40% of all statistics are wrong.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 1532
Location: Delphi, Indiana

PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:12 am    Post subject: due to lose Reply with quote

By popular demand, players whose 4- and 5-year histories suggest downturns in productivity. Again, no outside influences are considered. As in the list above, players are listed with their 2007 teams. I've omitted players who do not seem to be on any roster at this time.

Code:
 imp    player            team   2007   2008?  imp%
-4.8   Kenyon Martin       Den   16.7   11.9   .71
-3.8   Stephon Marbury      NY   23.2   19.4   .84
-3.5   Andrei Kirilenko    Uta   24.7   21.2   .86
-3.1   Kevin Garnett       Min   37.7   34.6   .92
-2.9   Lorenzen Wright     Atl   13.7   10.8   .79

-2.9   Malik Rose           NY   14.7   11.8   .80
-2.9   Steve Francis        NY   23.4   20.6   .88
-2.9   Shareef Abdur-Rahim Sac   21.1   18.2   .86
-2.9   Raef Lafrentz       Por   16.0   13.2   .82
-2.8   Antoine Walker      Mia   18.4   15.5   .85

-2.7   Donyell Marshall    Cle   23.5   20.9   .89
-2.6   Anthony Johnson     Atl   16.5   13.8   .84
-2.6   Jason Collins        NJ    9.1    6.5   .71
-2.6   Theo Ratliff        Bos   13.3   10.7   .80
-2.6   Jeff Mcinnis        Cha   13.0   10.4   .80

-2.6   Eddie Jones         Mia   19.5   16.9   .87
-2.5   Brad Miller         Sac   23.0   20.5   .89
-2.4   Damon Jones         Cle   14.6   12.2   .83
-2.4   Kurt Thomas         Pho   18.8   16.4   .87
-2.3   Speedy Claxton      Atl   15.5   13.1   .85

-2.3   Richard Jefferson    NJ   22.9   20.7   .90
-2.2   P.J. Brown          Chi   19.8   17.6   .89
-2.2   Shaquille O'Neal    Mia   35.1   32.9   .94
-2.2   Kenny Thomas        Sac   18.4   16.2   .88
-2.2   Allen Iverson       Den   30.0   27.8   .93

-2.1   Ron Artest          Sac   28.7   26.6   .93
-2.1   Jamaal Magloire     Por   19.9   17.8   .90
-2.1   Marquis Daniels     Ind   16.1   14.1   .87
-2.1   Matt Harpring       Uta   22.9   20.9   .91

A number of these guys have gone to other teams. I'm not expecting to see Payton, EThomas, Fortson, Cliffy, McKie, Kandi, JRose, JakeT, Wesley, and Corliss.

Since younger players tend to get better, there are relatively few resisting that trend. Players with 3 and 2 years of experience, who have regressed in their short careers:
Code:
 imp   4th-year player  team   2007   2008?  imp%
-5.1   David Harrison    Ind   13.4    8.3   .62
-4.5   Beno Udrih         SA   16.7   12.2   .73
-2.6   Sebastian Telfair Bos   14.9   12.3   .83
-1.9   Kendrick Perkins  Bos   17.5   15.6   .89
-1.6   James Jones       Pho   15.8   14.1   .90
-1.4   Jameer Nelson     Orl   24.1   22.7   .94


 imp   3rd-year player   team   2007   2008?  imp%
-5.8   Channing Frye       NY   20.7   14.9   .72
-3.8   Andre Barrett      Chi   13.3    9.5   .72
-3.5   Salim Stoudamire   Atl   15.6   12.1   .78
-2.9   Francisco Garcia   Sac   15.9   13.0   .82
-2.6   Chuck Hayes        Hou   22.6   20.0   .89

-2.4   Danny Granger      Ind   21.0   18.6   .88
-2.0   Charlie Villanueva Mil   23.1   21.1   .91
-1.7   Raymond Felton     Cha   22.1   20.4   .92
-1.6   Andrew Bogut       Mil   23.5   21.9   .93
-1.5   Martell Webster    Por   15.8   14.3   .90

_________________
40% of all statistics are wrong.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    APBRmetrics Forum Index -> General discussion All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group