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Rick
Joined: 16 Feb 2005
Posts: 3
Location: MN
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 Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2005 2:00 pm Post subject: Which team controls the pace of the game? Efficiency Stats? |
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Great site! I read Basketball on Paper last weekend and decided to get involved in the revolution.
I'm actually more of a stats fan than NBA fan, but Oliver's book and this site (and similar NBA stat based sites) have got me thinking.
Which team controls Pace?
I also believe a team can use pace as a strategic advantage (thinking of Oliver's example of an underdog with a half-time lead slowing the game down in the second half). Has anyone thought about which team controls the pace of the game? For instance, if Detroit (89.2 poss/g) and Phoenix (97.7 poss/g) played, which team would control the pace? Would it naturally fall somewhere in the middle (93.5 poss/g) or could one team influence the overall pace? Over time, which team has had the advantage of controlling the pace...the plodding team or the up-tempo team?
Efficiency stats
Does anyone know where accurate offensive and defensive efficiency stats are posted on a daily basis? I've found them at Ed Kupfer's site and Coverwire.com (of course the stats provided are different -- maybe due to .4 vs. .44 multiplier?). Has anyone found home/road efficiency splits online?
Thanks in advance for any insight provided. I look forward to many more stat based "conversations" with y'all.
Rick |
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WizardsKev
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 98
Location: Washington, DC
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| Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2005 2:32 pm Post subject: |
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Welcome, Rick.
I don't have the answers to either question, but your query about pace made me think of a related question.
After determining which team controls pace, the next question is -- "Does it matter?"
Does a team actually gain an advantage by controlling pace?
I think most of us would assume that a team's ability to control pace could be important, but has anyone done some work to determine whether it's true? |
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HoopStudies
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 80
Location: Bay Area, California
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| Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2005 3:07 pm Post subject: Re: Which team controls the pace of the game? Efficiency St |
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| Rick wrote: | Great site! I read Basketball on Paper last weekend and decided to get involved in the revolution.
I'm actually more of a stats fan than NBA fan, but Oliver's book and this site (and similar NBA stat based sites) have got me thinking.
Which team controls Pace?
I also believe a team can use pace as a strategic advantage (thinking of Oliver's example of an underdog with a half-time lead slowing the game down in the second half). Has anyone thought about which team controls the pace of the game? For instance, if Detroit (89.2 poss/g) and Phoenix (97.7 poss/g) played, which team would control the pace? Would it naturally fall somewhere in the middle (93.5 poss/g) or could one team influence the overall pace? Over time, which team has had the advantage of controlling the pace...the plodding team or the up-tempo team?
Efficiency stats
Does anyone know where accurate offensive and defensive efficiency stats are posted on a daily basis? I've found them at Ed Kupfer's site and Coverwire.com (of course the stats provided are different -- maybe due to .4 vs. .44 multiplier?). Has anyone found home/road efficiency splits online?
Thanks in advance for any insight provided. I look forward to many more stat based "conversations" with y'all.
Rick |
Quick comment as I have to go to a meeting...
The topic of who controls tempo is a big one. I've spent a fair amount of time on the thing. In general, I have never found that controlling tempo is all that big. It's such a vague thing -- What does controlling tempo mean? Yet nearly every coach/scout I talk to emphasizes this as a huge thing. But there was a classic case in last year's playoffs where broadcasters were contradicting themselves. It was during the Spurs-Lakers series and a bit during the Pistons-Lakers series. The broadcasters would say that the Spurs needed to keep it slow. Then when they got out and ran and took a lead, they said the Spurs were controlling the tempo. Huh? Same thing with the Pistons who they all said wanted to keep it slow. But they kept getting all the fast break points.
So it seemed to me that the real question was -- for whom is it more important to limit fast break points? All teams obviously want to cut them down, but for whom is it most important. And that is something that I have done work on this year (private for the Sonics).
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Dean Oliver
Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics
Author, Basketball on Paper
http://www.basketballonpaper.com |
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Dan Rosenbaum
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 96
Location: Greensboro, North Carolina
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| Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2005 4:06 pm Post subject: Re: Which team controls the pace of the game? |
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| [Argh - I accidentally hit edit and not quote on DanR's post and didn't notice, so I destroyed it. Maybe he can try to reconstruct his thoughts and re-post them. My apologies.] |
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Golabki
Joined: 25 Feb 2005
Posts: 5
Location: Boston
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| Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2005 7:49 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | This always leads to the question whether "controlling the tempo" is anything different from being able to successfully run one's sets and being able to keep the other team from being able to successfully run their sets |
I think this is the meaning of the phrase as used by most broadcasters. In other words, 'controlling the tempo' is good, so if you are doing good you are controlling the tempo, and that's good. I think this little circle as about the extent of the analysis in many cases.
However, there is a real issue here. In fact I think there are 2...
1) Can teams gain a significant edge by forcing a given tempo. Can you can build a team to play well at a certain pace (fast/slow), and then force your opponents to play at that pace? A good example might be the Suns, all 5 starters can run up and down the court and Nash is obviously a good ball handler, so they are built for speed. Dean seemed to answer this, saying it doesn't end up mattering that much. That jives with my intuition so I am cool with that.
2) Are there teams that do particularly good jobs at controlling the tempo based on in game situation. It's obviously better to play slow when you are ahead and fast when you are behind (all other things being equal). Do certain teams do this significantly better than others? Clearly, I don't know.[/quote]
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 151
Location: Seattle
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| Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2005 10:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | This always leads to the question whether "controlling the tempo" is anything different from being able to successfully run one's sets and being able to keep the other team from being able to successfully run their sets - where "success" is defined as being able to run the sets to completion rather than whether the shot went in. |
I dunno, Dan. Those sound suspiciously like "offense" and "defense" to me. In baseball, they talk about how hitting is timing and pitching is disrupting timing. You seem to be thinking of something similar. But while tempo may be a means to that end -- forcing a team to waste a lot of time bringing the ball up, for example, makes it more difficult for them to go through all of their options -- I don't think that is tempo in and of itself.
I think the reason controlling tempo doesn't show as particularly important might me that fewer teams than we think are actually affected by the tempo they play at. I do think that the extreme teams, like the Suns, probably are somewhat susceptible to different tempos. |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 151
Location: Seattle
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| Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2005 10:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Also, Rick, http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats is your source for Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Ed's ratings are slightly off because he pulls them from Dougstats.com and they do not include "team" turnovers. |
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S.K.
Joined: 18 Feb 2005
Posts: 7
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2005 11:28 pm Post subject: |
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| admin wrote: |
I think the reason controlling tempo doesn't show as particularly important might me that fewer teams than we think are actually affected by the tempo they play at. I do think that the extreme teams, like the Suns, probably are somewhat susceptible to different tempos. |
Well obviously there are two aspects of controlling tempo - offensively, and defensively. I'm not sure a team can really defensively control the tempo, unless it's constantly forcing a team into a halfcourt offense when they aren't comfortable there (ie last year's Nets). This, I would think, is pretty tough to do, but could slow down a quick-tempo offense if done successfully. I can't think of a way to speed up the tempo from the defensive side unless it's giving up open shots, which I suppose is one way to do things (we'll call that 'the Toronto Raptors method').
Offensively, on the other hand, it's pretty much a matter of whether or not you like to run in transition, and whether or not you like to take your time and feed the post in halfcourt. I'd agree that this isn't usually a big deal unless you have an exceptional case (Jason Kidd leading the break, or Shaq waiting for the entry pass).
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 151
Location: Seattle
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| Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2005 11:58 pm Post subject: |
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I think there are some things you can do to force a team into a half-court game. Not turning the ball over, naturally, is a good first step. Executing your own offense and forcing them to take the ball out out of the basket, as they say, is key, though easier said than done. (The Sonics really took advantage of this at Phoenix.)
The other control you have is how much you crash the boards versus sending your guys back to set up defensively. There's a reason both Van Gundys and Rick Carlisle have three of the league's worst offensive rebounding teams. ... |
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mavs128
Joined: 25 Feb 2005
Posts: 2
Location: Dallas, Texas
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| Posted: Wed Mar 02, 2005 1:56 am Post subject: |
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| S.K. wrote: |
Well obviously there are two aspects of controlling tempo - offensively, and defensively. I'm not sure a team can really defensively control the tempo, unless it's constantly forcing a team into a halfcourt offense when they aren't comfortable there (ie last year's Nets). This, I would think, is pretty tough to do, but could slow down a quick-tempo offense if done successfully. I can't think of a way to speed up the tempo from the defensive side unless it's giving up open shots, which I suppose is one way to do things (we'll call that 'the Toronto Raptors method'). |
Well, you could speed up the tempo defensively by full-court presses and lots of double teams, but I'm not sure that's relevant to the discussion. |
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Rick
Joined: 16 Feb 2005
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Location: MN
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| Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 4:36 pm Post subject: |
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Perfect examble tonight: Detroit Pistons @ Phoenix Suns
Thanks for your thoughtful responses. Of course, I now feel I have more questions and concerns. I'll address a couple of them right now and hold off on a couple until another time.
A couple thoughts...I agree that broadcasters/analysts often use "controlling the tempo" as another cliche as opposed to deep analyis. The phrase has little meaning without the proper context.
The question was asked by WizardsKev...Does pace matter?
I guess we'll get an example of the "pace factor" tonight when the Suns host the Pistons. The pistons are around 89 poss/g and the Suns are around 98 poss/g. The Vegas total is set at 207.5. A fairly high scoring game by today's standards. We'll see what happens tonight...the game may bring about some additional commentary.
To me, the real battle of pace will be the Suns' offense (o/eff over 112) against the Pistons defense (d/eff 97). I can't imagine the Suns deliberately slowing down their game, but can the Pistons slow down the Suns? When I think about controlling the pace, I think the "slower" paced team has more influence.
In other words, I can't imagine too many fast-paced teams slowing down their offensive tempo or attempting to get the slower team to pick up their pace (shoot quicker). It is easier for me to imagine the slow-paced team picking up the offensive tempo to take advantage of a weak defense or stepping up on defense to slow down a fast-paced team (take away open looks, clog the lanes to limit easy passing, marking tight, double teams, etc.). Does this make sense?
Regarding the Lakers examples above...could it be that those teams felt the Lakers' defense was susceptible and decided to press their usual pace to take advantage of a perceived weakness? It makes intuitive sense to me that a slower paced team may pick up the pace when facing a weak defense.
For now, I've decided to stay with coverwire.com's offensive and defensive efficiency stats. I did check out knickerblogger's stats and they didn't appear to be up to date. |
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HoopStudies
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 80
Location: Bay Area, California
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| Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Rick wrote: | Perfect examble tonight: Detroit Pistons @ Phoenix Suns
....
I guess we'll get an example of the "pace factor" tonight when the Suns host the Pistons. The pistons are around 89 poss/g and the Suns are around 98 poss/g. The Vegas total is set at 207.5. A fairly high scoring game by today's standards. We'll see what happens tonight...the game may bring about some additional commentary.
To me, the real battle of pace will be the Suns' offense (o/eff over 112) against the Pistons defense (d/eff 97). I can't imagine the Suns deliberately slowing down their game, but can the Pistons slow down the Suns? When I think about controlling the pace, I think the "slower" paced team has more influence.
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So how will you evaluate tonight's game?
If it's <94 poss and the Pistons win, do we say that they controlled the tempo?
If it's >94 poss and the Suns win, do we say that the Suns controlled the tempo?
If it's <94 poss and the Pistons lose, then what? If >94 and the Pistons win?
What if it's <94 poss the teams score 120 points per 100 poss? What if it's 100+ poss and the teams score 90 pts/100 poss?
It may be an example, but how is anyone going to interpret the results?
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Dean Oliver
Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics
Author, Basketball on Paper
http://www.basketballonpaper.com |
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Rick
Joined: 16 Feb 2005
Posts: 3
Location: MN
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| Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2005 7:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | So how will you evaluate tonight's game?
If it's <94 poss and the Pistons win, do we say that they controlled the tempo?
If it's >94 poss and the Suns win, do we say that the Suns controlled the tempo?
If it's <94 poss and the Pistons lose, then what? If >94 and the Pistons win?
What if it's <94 poss the teams score 120 points per 100 poss? What if it's 100+ poss and the teams score 90 pts/100 poss?
It may be an example, but how is anyone going to interpret the results? |
Wow, that sounds as if you are interested in hypothesis testing. I think I just had a grad school flashback.
You make a very good point, Dean. It was easy just throwing out my comments...much more difficult trying to justify them. With that said, obviously tonight's sample size of one game isn't statistically significant. It may be an "example," but hardly definitive. Also, you brought up another point that was alluded to in other posts...Is controlling the tempo correlated with winning?
Let's look at the most recent meeting between these teams. Back in early January, the Pistons beat the Suns at Detroit 94-80. Now, it is very important to point out that Nash did not play in that game (and Nash may be hobbled tonight), but Detroit did "slow the game down." I estimate there were under 94 possessions in that game and it appears to have been a "defensive" game...or at least a poor offensive effort (i.e. low points per possession).
In this case, I feel the Pistons controlled the tempo. Detroit still managed to get the fast break points and had 24 offensive rebounds. Detroit also had a big lead throughout that game (24 point lead at one point) and this probably helped them dictate the pace a bit more than if they were behind the entire game.
Interestingly, in the January game the Vegas total was 193 and tonight it is 207.5. How much of this is due to Nash and how much of it is due to the change in venue? Are there other circumstances?
And finally, a couple of quotes.
First, a quote from Chauncey Billups in the Detroit Free Press..."Both Phoenix and Seattle (Friday's opponent...although I'm sure you already knew that Dean) like to get out and shoot threes. We need to be able to control tempo."
And from the Arizona Republic, Suns coach Mike D'Antoni..."These guys are men. When we have to match them physically, we're going to have to do it, but we have to run . . . We've got to make it a running game and try to impose our will and see what happens."
Looks as if the pace battle has already begun before they even step on the hardcourt. Notice how I've managed to steer away from my hypotheses? I'll have to think about this a bit more before I'm willing to stick my neck out. Can't wait to watch this game tonight to see what happens. |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 151
Location: Seattle
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| Posted: Fri Mar 04, 2005 12:11 am Post subject: |
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| Halftime in this game. I felt watching the first half that the tempo was pretty slow. Lo and behold, we're at precisely 47 possessions apiece so far, so neither team appears to be "controlling tempo". |
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WizardsKev
Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 98
Location: Washington, DC
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| Posted: Fri Mar 04, 2005 5:47 am Post subject: |
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One problem I see in analyzing this is that while we can measure pace, it's difficult to know whether fluctuations in pace from game-to-game are random or whether they're the product of control. Perhaps we could measure a team's change in pace relative to their opponent's average pace (each individual opponent's). I'm still dubious about how useful that would be, though.
For example, let's say Detroit gets hot against Phoenix and starts making a high percentage of its shots. Phoenix has a tougher time running because they're taking the ball out of the basket instead of rebounding misses. Nash pushes the ball up anyway, but Phoenix is forced to run their halfcourt offense, and what they're getting is contested jumpers -- which they're missing. Now Detroit is getting fastbreak opportunities, which they're converting, which means Phoenix is forced back into the halfcourt offense... lather, rinse, repeat.
Is Detroit "controlling" tempo? Not really, they're just making their shots. If we're going to analyze this, we need to decide what constitutes controlling tempo and how it contributes to winning.
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If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough.
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