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[radio]

Hi everybody-- I'm new here, and just wanted to say I've been enjoying the discussion you all have been having.

I wanted to hear some of your thoughts on the deals made at the deadline. I think that most years the deadline is a lot of sizzle and not much steak, and this year is no exception. Still, trade evaluation is one of the fun things about sports analysis, and here are my pennies' worth:

Warriors-Hornets (Baron Davis): This one's hard to evaluate without knowing what Baron's health status is. 5 max years of an uninsurable contract is a tough pill to swallow if the guy ends up in a wheelchair. If he's healthy, of course, this is a clear win for the Warriors. Baron is a terrific defensive player and instantly becomes the best player Golden State has had in years. Though he's not efficient enough to use as many possessions as he does, I don't really think he'll be taking touches away from more efficient players. I can see building a 76ers-type team around him, with the caveat that Baron is still awfully young and could get much better. Claxton was fine last year, but isn't really a scarce commodity in the league, and of course Dale Davis is basically a non-entity at this point. Without a doctor's advice, I'd call this a nice job by the Warriors. I'm frankly shocked that Shinn didn't want to trade him for some young talent, but perhaps those offers were not forthcoming.

Celtics-Hawks (Walker/Payton): Wasn't it just a few months ago that Hollinger was praising Ainge as a smart GM? This deal is a catastrophe. All the players involved have expiring deals, so saving money is not an issue. GP was having a fine season as a slightly above-average point. Marcus Banks may be better overall (worse offensively, much better defensively), but this does cut down on your backcourt depth. And for what? Walker is one of the least efficient players in the league, and having him takes shots away from the guys who really should be using up the possessions (Pierce and LaFrentz). Add in the absolutely inevitable "chemistry" issues and loss of continuity, and I just don't see any reason to take this on AND give away a first-round pick. Clear win for the Hawks, even (especially?) if Payton doesn't report.

Mavericks/Bucks (Van Horn): This is the kind of deal that makes deadlines so boring. The Bucks just wanted to dump Van Horn's contract, and with good reason: KVH is a mediocre offensive player and a bad defender. It seems like the Mavericks should at least have gotten the better player out of this, but I'm frankly not convinced I wouldn't rather have Alan Henderson as my backup: at least he plays some defense, and you know there won't be any scuttlebutt about minutes or touches. Henderson's Roland Rating looks bad, but that's primarily a function of him backing up Dirk Nowitzki; I'm sure Van Horn's RR will reach similar depths shortly. Aside: Every news outlet is reporting this as the "Bucks want to keep Redd" deal. Of course, this doesn't change by a single dollar the amount of money the Bucks are entitled to offer Redd. I'd call it penny pinching if I thought they lost this deal, but Van Horn is the Ted McGinley of basketball and should probably be avoided in any event. Clear win for the Bucks.

Golden State/Denver (Najera): This is a fun one. Initially, it can be read as a salary dump by Golden State: Both Skita and Rodney White are on the last year of their contracts, and Najera's got 4 years left on a long, Cuban-inked deal. The analysis has to depend on the time horizon and conditionality applied to the #1 pick, but I think Golden State got some interesting pieces here. Rodney White has looked fine in limited action; he's got good athleticism and a nice jump shot, and is probably better right now than Mike Dunleavy, Jr. He uses too many possessions, but he's still very young and that might be coached out of him one day. Tskitishvili got less burn before being declared a bust than any #5 overall pick I can think of since Tony Battie. It's awfully rare for guys who get drafted that high to never contribute, though, and I can think of worse ideas than sending Skita out there with Baron and seeing if something clicks. The season is lost anyway. Meanwhile, Najera has been physically overmatched at every level, and the jig has got to be up by now. With that horrific contract, I'd have to think he has negative trade value. Golden State had a pretty good day today. This was a nice low-risk, high-reward proposition for them.

Boston/Cleveland (Welsch): Welsch hasn't contributed much so far in his career, but Cleveland needed some backcourt depth and their #1 is unlikely to be worth much anyway. This is a nice stretch run pickup for the Cavs, and at a pretty low price. Other GMs (I'm looking at you, Kupchak) would do well to learn by Paxson's example.

NY/SA (Mohammed): I'm sure knickerblogger will have many more, and much smarter, things to say about this in the morning, but for now, let me just say: I can think of at least 50 people I know personally who would do a better job as Knicks GM than Isiah Thomas, and one of them is my mother, who has never seen an NBA game. Nazr Mohammed is one of the few true young centers in the league, though his game is not without its warts. Malik Rose is an undersized power forward owed $27 million over the next 4 years. It's not that Mohammed is perfect, because he's not, and it's not that Rose is useless because he's not. Rose can play some defense and board a little. But there is absolutely no reason to trade Mohammed for a bad contract and a low 1st rounder. Don't want to pay Nazr the max next season? Fine. Sign and trade him to whoever does. Or, if you must trade him this season, trade him for an expiring contract and a young small forward. But do not take on another bad deal in exchange for one of the only 3 guys on this team whose salary is commensurate with his performance. Do not take on yet another old, undersized power forward for one of the only 3 guys who could have been on the next decent Knicks team. Ugh. Just ugh. Clear win-- the clearest of the day, by far-- for the Spurs, who must have perfected some sort of mind control device.

Knicks/Rockets (Mo Taylor): The Spurs must have loaned their mind control device to the Rockets. Or is there a simpler explanation for how well the Spurs and Rockets did here? Hmm. This deal isn't as bad as the Knicks deal, mostly because Moochie Norris and Vin Baker are non-contributors, while Nazr Mohammed is actually good. So, while the Spurs got cap relief in exchange for taking on additional talent, the Rockets got cap relief for, well, free. Mo Taylor is about league average and overpaid, which means he'll fit in perfectly on the Knicks. Cap relief this year could have gotten you Baron Davis, or maybe (if the rumors were true) Carlos Boozer. Young, talented big men are always commodities. Somehow, the Knicks turned cap relief and a young big into Mo Taylor, Malik Rose, and 2 low 1st rounders. Yikes.

76ers-Hornets (Rogers): A strange deal. The only guy in it likely to play at all this year is Rodney Rogers, and his contract expires at the end of this year. It's essentially Rogers for cash, since Mashburn's contract is not entirely insured. I have a few questions about this. One, if you want Rogers so much, why not just get him for Kedrick Brown and cash, which would allow you to keep the asset of Robinson's expiring contract? Two, is this really why the Sixers didn't send Robinson to the Kings in the Webber deal? Did they seriously jeopardize that trade so they could have Rodney Rogers? And three, why do you want Rogers at all? He's been execrable this year, and has been seriously out of shape for as long as I can remember. I understand that the Webber deal sapped the Sixers of some depth, and maybe Rogers is the best backup big out there. If that's so, it's a pretty dry market. It also shows a troubling lack of imagination; I’m sure there are a few NBADL guys who are just as good as Rogers at this point, and at about 1/50th the price. Good money saver for the Hornets, I guess, but there isn’t much here here.

Rockets-Bucks (James): Mike James has long been a favorite of mine. I think the Rockets did some pretty sweet work here. The second-rounders should be pretty useless, and Reece Gaines hasn't shown anything in numerous chances. James, meanwhile, is a pretty good defender with a nice jump shot, which should make for a nice interesting change of pace from Bob Sura. He should also keep Andre Barrett, Charlie Ward, and Tyronn Lue off the floor, which can only be a good thing. Meanwhile, the Bucks just continue to scrape pennies together with which to make Redd an offer. Poor Senator Kohl, with his threadbare pants. I hope Redd is worth it, though he almost certainly will not be.

My thoughts on Webber are on the Webber thread.

Wow this was long. I didn't mean for this to be so long. Anyway, I know a lot of this is conventional wisdom, but I wanted to hear what some of you thought about the day's happenings. I'm sure many of you are fans of the relevant teams and can add some color to this admittedly superficial analysis.

Cheers.
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Ankur Desai
Amateur Hoops Junkie

[benji]

[radio]

re: Lue. I knew that. Right after you said it, I mean.

Glenn Robinson is playing again this year? What on earth for? Does he really think someone will offer him more than the minimum after the way he mailed in the year?
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Ankur Desai
Amateur Hoops Junkie

[biedrinsfan]

Simply giving it just a rough eyeball, and probably being a tad biased, I was ecstatic by the Warriors moves. Even if Davis flames out and never plays a single game with the Warriors, the price wasn't terribly high (although I did like Claxton as a cheap contributor) and, at least for once, they were trying to do something big. I'm only 17, but even I've seen enough dreadful Warrior seasons to know that going after a big star is a step towards a direction much better than where the Warriors [were] heading. Heck, just not having to watch Dale Davis and Eduardo Najera eat minutes with painful mediocrity makes the day a success in my eyes. Maybe we'll get a chance to see what Zarko and some of these other guys could possibly offer for the future.
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-Jonathan

[Mike G]

I just want to thank "radio" for his in-depth commentary -- and excellent writing, I should add. Sign this guy up.

The business-end stuff is hard for me to make much sense of. In the old days, you tried to get guys with more upside or with more immediate impact -- on the floor. Now, at least 2/3 of the "good deal/bad deal" analysis is speculation on salary cap shenanigans.

Every point can now be countered with a "but what happens when ..." argument that dreads when the player pans out and demands more money, etc. I leave that to others.

Anyway, except for the 8th snipe at God vs. Tierre, I appreciate the mostly-performance -based synopsis.

[CrazyFromTheHeat]

With the Walker deal, you forgot about Delonte West, who will be playing the point ahead of Banks. Also, keep in mind that this deal was made very late, long after Ainge knew about the Sixers getting Webber. So it may just be that Danny decided to roll the dice and give his two young point guards some valuable experience, and if they miss the playoffs, so be it. There are four rookies on the roster, the plans are definitiely long-term, and Walker's contract presents no risk.

Also, this deal is one of high-interest level for Celts fans, who all have strong opinions about Walker. If he leads them into the playoffs, it will be a hell of a story, and if not they're back in the lottery.

Finally, over at Celticsblog.com (a great Celtics blog), they've got a poll going with about 500 participants, and only 13% are completely against the deal. So Ainge doesn't really have much to lose here, but I do have to say I was surprised.
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[radio]

biedrinsfan: You're only 17? Huh. Hope for the future.

Mike: Thanks for the kind words. I agree that NBA transactions are no fun under this CBA. The next CBA, though, should be better: it's rumored to have shorter max deals and to permit trades within 25% of cap value.

CFTH: Yeah, my overall impression is that Celtics' Nation is pleased about this trade. I suppose that's what happens when you root for such a boring team: Anything exciting is good. (I'm a Lakers fan, so to me, pretty much every other team in the league is boring, but the Celtics are particularly milquetoasty. The Lake Show: Tune in next week!) In addition to Delonte West, who I omitted because I assumed Banks would get the lions' share of the minutes, I also neglected to mention the possibility that Payton would return after being bought out by the Hawks. If that happens, it goes from being a big loss to a small one; given all the inefficiency and ballhogging, The Big Shimmy is, to my mind, a bit of subtraction by addition, you might say.
_________________
Ankur Desai
Amateur Hoops Junkie