I agree Mike. What I was trying to say is that replacement level for a roster spot would be spots 10-12, but replacement level for a starter's spot would be 6 or 7. If Thomas is coming up at 0.0, and you have 150 players rated ahead of him, and 150 players is all of the league starters, then Thomas would seem to be playing at the level of a bordeline starter, which is about where replacement level for a starters job should be.
Looking it over, I'm not sure that's any clearer (it might even be muddier), but I tried. _________________ The Best Miami Heat Coverage
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Mike, my linear weights stuff has Thomas rated about the same, but I rate him much worse by this method because he's a poor defender for a power forward based on his individual statistics (blocks, steals, fouls).
I base replacement level on the theory that a whole team constructed of replacement-level players could win about 10 games. (Justin used eight wins in his Win Shares theory, but just to set marginal levels of offense and defense for teams.)
So I choose the player winning percentage that equalizes the sum of player Wins Above Replacement to the league number (31*30 = 930 at season's end).
That comes out to about ninth-man level this year, 10th-man the year before that.
Butler isn't really a great example because he was still in the lineup, so not all of his minutes had to be replaced. Eyeballing season splits, it looks like Keyon Dooling (who would be about the eighth or ninth man, right?) has picked up almost as many minutes as Jones.
Butler isn't really a great example because he was still in the lineup, so not all of his minutes had to be replaced. Eyeballing season splits, it looks like Keyon Dooling (who would be about the eighth or ninth man, right?) has picked up almost as many minutes as Jones.
You're right, in that the Butler/DJ maneuver is not as drastic as a trade, but I do thinks it works as an example of a team using its next best player, or 6th man, as the replacement for a starter, regardless of position. Here are the minutes for Butler, DJ, and Dooling, by month:
Butler loses 8 minutes, and his starting job. DJ picks up 6 minutes, and Dooling 2. But its the whole lineup that is reorganized. Dooling's minutes aren't coming directly from Butler. It is now decided that Dooling is DJ's backup, for better or worse, with Dwyane Wade not playing the point at all. Butler has been picking up scraps behind Eddie Jones and Wade, minutes not nearly as crucial as he had before, and those will shrink with the arrival of Steve Smith.
So I guess that sets off a whole different debate. Is dropping a 27-minute starting gig for a 19-minute backup slot really just a loss of 8 minutes, or is it something more? _________________ The Best Miami Heat Coverage
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