APBRmetrics

Ben F. · Joined: 07 Mar 2005 Posts: 391

Here, I transferred it over to imageshack.us for you, which allows remote linking.

It's very nice.

bchaikin · Joined: 27 Jan 2005 Posts: 686 Location: cleveland, ohio

What shooting percent do you use, Bob, to make projections for the coming year for, say, Allen Iverson? His career average? Last year's value? Some running average over a few years? Something more sophisticated?

for the simulation i always use the most recent regular season data. in the off season that's the final regular season stats of the previous season. during the season its the regular season stats up and through the previous weekend (once about 18-20 games have been played).....

but in addition i also run (simulate) the player's stats from two seasons earlier and three seasons earlier if the data exists, to check for consistency. take joe johnson for example, other than his individual defense (outside of steals, blocks, and def reb), the only major difference between his 04-05 and 03-04 stats is that he shot much much better from 3pt range (with more 3pt FGA) in 04-05, 48% to 31%. that difference between his 04-05 and 03-04 3pt shooting is huge, and results (along with other minor changes in his game) in a difference of close to 4-5 wins per average 82 games (playing him 40 min/g) in favor of his 04-05 stats....

so using his 03-04 stats in any 04-05 simulation if i remember i think he produced wins at the rate of just 4-5 more wins per average 82 games than some of the worst starting SGs in 04-05 (playing 40 min/g). but using his 04-05 stats that gets bumped up to 9-10 more wins per average 82 games than some of the worst starting SGs in 04-05. that's quite a difference (5-6 wins, maximized by him playing 40 min/g)...

so any analyses i run for joe johnson using his 04-05 stats is tempered by also quoting his simulation results using his 03-04 stats (and 02-03 for comparison), saying to the effect of should his 3pt shooting go south like it did in 03-04, expect those wins to drop...

for players who played few minutes in a season, say < 500, i will often add their 04-05 and 03-04 stats together and use that for the simulation...

actually the difference in using allen iverson for 40 min/g using his 04-05 versus his 03-04 stats is also about 5-6 wins per average 82 games in favor of his 04-05 stats...

Because we know that the value you choose matters in your simulation and guys definitely fluctuate.

i don't "choose" values, i only use actual data. so it doesn't matter how much anyone's stats fluctuate from one season to the next because i can run simulations using a player's data from any previous seasons (or the current season if the analysis is done in season). if for example a player was hurt in his most recent season but not the previous two, and he's now healthy, you can use all 3 sets of single season data and quantify the result of the most recent data saying he was hurt...

but in all honesty its been my experience that most players do not fluctuate that much from one season to the next., not upwards of the 5-6 wins difference you see in joe johnson or iverson above. yes you do see the few that do like how shawn marion and amare stoudemire were both much better in 04-05 than in 03-04, but for the most part players do not tend to fluctuate by more than 2-3 wins from one season to the next, and many are less than that when you normalize their minutes played (i.e. in the sim run them for the same amount of minutes using their stats from different seasons regardless of how many min/g they actually played in those different seasons)....

the only time i will actually change a player's stats from their real life numbers to something else is when running what-if scenarios, i.e. how much better or worse would a team be if for example player A shot 50% from 2pt range rather than his current 45%, or player B got 25% more rebounds, or player C had a much better or worse individual defensive FG% rating...

gabefarkas · Joined: 31 Dec 2004 Posts: 1313 Location: Durham, NC

kjb · Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 864 Location: Washington, DC

I can help with the writing/revision process. I won't have time to help with the data side of the project, however -- plus, I'm a better writer than mathemetician.

Dan Rosenbaum · Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2005 3:41 pm Post subject:

I have been swamped with schoolwork over the past few weeks, as my posts here and at my blog has dwindled to almost nothing. I owe e-mails to lots of people this weekend.

This weekend I plan to send out an e-mail to those of you who have expressed interest. We probably have about 10 people that have expressed interest in some fashion or another and 10 co-authors probably is too many. But what I was hoping to do is have maybe half those folks be co-authors and the other half be involved in the process and get an acknowledgment in the credits. On the other hand, we could work it like some medical journal articles where we have 10 co-authors for a 10 sentence paper. Very Happy

gabefarkas · Joined: 31 Dec 2004 Posts: 1313 Location: Durham, NC

happy to help in whatever way -- gfarkas@gmail.com

Mountain · Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Posts: 1527

Is the research project / paper suggested in this thread still a possibility sometime in future? A good next step after past APBR member papers groundwork? Would running it as suggested then still be the approach favored today or modify?

Dan Rosenbaum · Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2007 12:06 am Post subject: