This is Google's cache of viewtopic.php?t=270&sid=37be86d78feb0cfc30ce5ee9d7a471d7. It is a snapshot of the page as it appeared on Mar 20, 2011 02:37:06 GMT. The current page could have changed in the meantime. Learn more

Text-only version
These search terms are highlighted: roland_beech  
APBRmetrics :: View topic - Anyone want to change their MVP vote?
APBRmetrics Forum Index APBRmetrics
The statistical revolution will not be televised.
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Anyone want to change their MVP vote?

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    APBRmetrics Forum Index -> General discussion
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Roland_Beech



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 43

PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2005 1:28 pm    Post subject: Anyone want to change their MVP vote? Reply with quote

It's also seemed a little curious to me that the MVP in sports is based on the regular season only (particularly in basketball where making the playoffs is a bit of a given for most good teams).

If you count the post-season into your assessment, does that change your opinion of who the MVP of the league was this year?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
HoopStudies



Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 705
Location: Near Philadelphia, PA

PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2005 2:38 pm    Post subject: Re: Anyone want to change their MVP vote? Reply with quote

Roland_Beech wrote:
It's also seemed a little curious to me that the MVP in sports is based on the regular season only (particularly in basketball where making the playoffs is a bit of a given for most good teams).

If you count the post-season into your assessment, does that change your opinion of who the MVP of the league was this year?


Interesting question since your numbers show variation, with the Spurs doing better without Duncan on the floor in the playoffs.

Based on my definition some time ago of the player doing the most to get his team a championship, my vote would certainly change. That might also put disproportionate weight on the playoffs since the regular season only changes a team's odds from 1/30 to something around 1/4, whereas the playoffs change them from a max of 1/4 to 100%. Perhaps you give 50% credit to regular season and playoffs. That would still likely put the award in the hands of someone on the championship team, probably TD or Manu.

But, as I stated before, I don't really care much about the MVP. In a team sport like basketball or football, such a thing is very context-dependent.
_________________
Dean Oliver
Author, Basketball on Paper
The postings are my own & don't necess represent positions, strategies or opinions of employers.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
jambalaya



Joined: 30 Jan 2005
Posts: 282

PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2005 3:33 pm    Post subject: duncan's +/- Reply with quote

things that contributed to duncan's +/- differential on/off court:

1. team defense surprisingly almost 7 points worse with him on court compared to off.

search for explanations: of course could be partly who he was on court with rather than all on him. team defense differential on/off court: parker -13, bowen -9.5. that may say a lot about their counterparts on offense but it helps makes all the spurs starters they played with worse than just on their own. and compared to his on court number, duncan's off court number may have had a higher rate with ginobli (+5 impact on team d on/off), who anchors team when duncan's out? i dont have those %s. and maybe he got tired a little? and maybe also it generally says he played heavier against the detroit starters and when he was out it was somewhat more their less potent bench? that could be a big part of it. but duncan did give up about a 7% higher opponent FG% compared to regular season which is significant, but folks can vary on how to split between blame for duncan and fair recognition of the above average detroit frontline.


2. FG% on duncan's jumpers only 31%, down from 41% regular season. with half his total shots being jumpers.

maybe detroit's bigs bothered his jumpshots more than normal? and
by contrast horry 57% eFG on jumpers and ginobli 53%. and maybe they took more when tim was out? and so the +/- picks up on the big FG%differential?


duncans on/off +/- rating may have worked out negative with all that goes into it, him and everyone else, but still looks like popovich managed the overall rotation well.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
moneyp



Joined: 24 Feb 2005
Posts: 69

PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2005 2:30 pm    Post subject: Re: Anyone want to change their MVP vote? Reply with quote

Roland_Beech wrote:
It's also seemed a little curious to me that the MVP in sports is based on the regular season only (particularly in basketball where making the playoffs is a bit of a given for most good teams).

If you count the post-season into your assessment, does that change your opinion of who the MVP of the league was this year?


Nah. It might change my assessment of who the best player in the league is, but I don't see a problem with awarding an MVP over the regular season 82. People pay to see those games, so kudos to the player who gives the best performance over them.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jambalaya



Joined: 30 Jan 2005
Posts: 282

PostPosted: Sun Jun 26, 2005 10:14 pm    Post subject: duncan Reply with quote

duncan is only 29 but a brief check for any signs of aging is still worth doing i think. his shooting (both inside and outside) was down quite a bit, so i checked the other facets of his game for possible decline. comparison made for playoff stats this year to last: passing a mixed bag but close to a wash. block rating only down about 5% but significantly fewer actual blocks. hands rating a significant improvement over last year with less bad passes and ball handling turnovers. offensive and defensive rebounding percents of chances both up a healthy amount. % fouls drawn down, though FT% and points off them both up strongly.

of course the stats are affected by the different teams played and so it can't be considered an exactly even comparison. but it does suggest that the shooting issue is the main concern. he should be sound enough for a few more strong years as team leader. probably will stay a top 5 MVP candidate for awhile longer. but i think he is close to his peak. and there is an opportunity for someone greater to lead their team past him if they have enough of the right stuff on the supporting cast. amare and the suns seem to be the strongest candidates if they have the right offseason.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
gabefarkas



Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC

PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:05 pm    Post subject: Re: Anyone want to change their MVP vote? Reply with quote

Roland_Beech wrote:
It's also seemed a little curious to me that the MVP in sports is based on the regular season only (particularly in basketball where making the playoffs is a bit of a given for most good teams).

If you count the post-season into your assessment, does that change your opinion of who the MVP of the league was this year?


Not that I'm stating my full opinion, but if I remember correctly Nash had a pretty nice playoff run too, right? Both from a personal and team perspective.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail AIM Address
gabefarkas



Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC

PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:06 pm    Post subject: Re: Anyone want to change their MVP vote? Reply with quote

moneyp wrote:
Roland_Beech wrote:
It's also seemed a little curious to me that the MVP in sports is based on the regular season only (particularly in basketball where making the playoffs is a bit of a given for most good teams).

If you count the post-season into your assessment, does that change your opinion of who the MVP of the league was this year?


Nah. It might change my assessment of who the best player in the league is, but I don't see a problem with awarding an MVP over the regular season 82. People pay to see those games, so kudos to the player who gives the best performance over them.


I guess that's why they have a regular season MVP and a finals MVP, huh?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail AIM Address
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    APBRmetrics Forum Index -> General discussion All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group