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passing statistics
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mateo82



Joined: 06 Aug 2005
Posts: 211

PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2005 11:31 am    Post subject: passing statistics Reply with quote

I'm a fan who values passing as one of the most important, and often overlooked, skills in basketball. I was wondering if there are any good passing statistics out there. I think something as simple as adjusted assists for a player's usage rating could give a decent idea of how good players are at passing the ball which leads to a score. If there aren't any good statistics out there I might try to come up with a formula myself. Thanks.
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jeffpotts77



Joined: 18 Feb 2005
Posts: 150
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Sat Aug 06, 2005 11:44 am    Post subject: link to knickerblogger.net Reply with quote

You should check out Knickerblogger's Stats page. Below I've pasted the link to the page with all players sorted by Assist Ratio - a formula developed by John Hollinger, used to evaluate passing skills (40 best; 2 worst).

http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/jh_ALL_AST.htm

Perhaps someone else will be able to elaborate on what the formula consists of.
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mateo82



Joined: 06 Aug 2005
Posts: 211

PostPosted: Sat Sep 03, 2005 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Favors guards too much. Anyone else?
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HoopStudies



Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 705
Location: Near Philadelphia, PA

PostPosted: Sat Sep 03, 2005 6:21 pm    Post subject: Re: passing statistics Reply with quote

mateo82 wrote:
I'm a fan who values passing as one of the most important, and often overlooked, skills in basketball. I was wondering if there are any good passing statistics out there. I think something as simple as adjusted assists for a player's usage rating could give a decent idea of how good players are at passing the ball which leads to a score. If there aren't any good statistics out there I might try to come up with a formula myself. Thanks.


Pointing out the obvious, but Bob Chaikin's database has how often players pass the ball. It doesn't quantify how good the passes are, but he has done work to show that it's pretty accurate.
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Ben F.



Joined: 07 Mar 2005
Posts: 391

PostPosted: Sat Sep 03, 2005 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So I took the numbers I have from Bob's database from last year, and looked at percent of passes that ended up in assists.

The results are surprising, although perhaps not so telling.

The range of the entire dataset (limited to players playing more than 1000 minutes last year) was 15.16%-17.95%, with 177 of the 244 players being over 17%. In fact, take away Danny Fortson, and the range becomes 16.37%-17.95%.

Big men head the list, and someone like Nash ends up at #105 in the league, at 17.15%. So I'm not sure this is the greatest of metrics.

Top 10:

Code:
Eddy Curry - 0.179514051
Emeka Okafor - 0.178372352
Antonio Davis - 0.176453202
Marc Jackson - 0.176385124
Rasheed Wallace - 0.176333138
Erick Dampier - 0.176092811
Troy Murphy - 0.176043557
Donyell Marshall - 0.175356558
Tayshaun Prince - 0.175127636
Stromile Swift - 0.175104248
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bchaikin



Joined: 27 Jan 2005
Posts: 678
Location: cleveland, ohio

PostPosted: Sat Sep 03, 2005 10:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So I took the numbers I have from Bob's database from last year, and looked at percent of passes that ended up in assists. The results are surprising, although perhaps not so telling.

not surprising at all - again in the stats database (and the simulation) a player's number of passes are calculated based on his assists, not vice versa. there are no players with higher percentages of assists per pass. any discrepencies you see between players are simply a factor of his team's game pace or some other small factor - there is very little difference between players ratios of assists to passes, as you can see from your calculations...

hopefully 82games.com will at some point show which players (if there are any) consistently show a higher (or lower) percentage of assists per pass, especially if many games are charted this upcoming season...
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Ben F.



Joined: 07 Mar 2005
Posts: 391

PostPosted: Sat Sep 03, 2005 11:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That would explain that.

Here's a hopefully more useful metric, combining data from 82games.com and Bob's database.

Top 15 Passing TOs/Pass:

Code:

Antonio Daniels   2.106251521
Matt Bonner   2.168063984
Jason Hart   2.592307439
Fred Hoiberg   2.607174945
PJ Brown   2.608071983
Aaron McKie   2.817962288
Elton Brand   2.848053498
Earl Boykins   2.854015803
Greg Buckner   2.942881234
Eric Snow   2.972836062
Kevin Garnett   2.975945433
Brendan Haywood   2.982163679
Tyronn Lue   2.995493736
Jeff McInnis   3.16151304
Brad Miller   3.162522656


Again, limited to players playing over 1000 minutes, and doesn't show that many surprises. Antonio Daniels is up there, I suppose PJ Brown, Elton Brand and Brendan Haywood could be called surprises, especially since they're big men.

If you wanted to do something to include the fact that someone might be taking a more risky pass if they're setting up a teammate for an assist, and so weight it for assists, we could do something like (1-passTO%)*(AST/MIN). Here's how that looks:

Code:

Steve Nash   32.2631855
Brevin Knight   29.42382862
Jason Kidd   21.56630353
Maurice Williams   20.56280182
Rick Brunson   20.31460208
Stephon Marbury   19.68436496
Jason Williams   19.65336655
Andre Miller   19.18777592
Sam Cassell   19.09896538
Earl Watson   19.04008207
Jason Hart   18.94468636
Jamaal Tinsley   18.68503728
Rafer Alston   18.20340527
Luke Ridnour   18.13249877
Gary Payton   17.86823422


No surprises here, I don't think. Almost all guards (that's who gets the assists), with the best big man checking in at #40 (KG). This really doesn't differentiate too much between itself and straight assists per minute (Steve Francis moves up a couple spots, but that's really the only dramatic movement).

What else could we include? How would you go about constructing a "passer rating"?
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Roland_Beech



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 43

PostPosted: Sun Sep 04, 2005 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is an area that will be greatly helped by the game charting this season, but we also do post a 'passing rating' for players which is really just a placeholder until we get something better!

Pass Rtg = (3pt AST + 2pt Jump AST + (2*Close AST)+ (4*Dunk AST) - (2* Pass T/O) ) / (seconds played / 2880)

I think the formula was concocted in about 10 seconds..the object obviously being to reward the passer more heavily for close/dunk asssists under the theory that the pass was a bigger contributor to the made bucket.

Under this scheme last year's leaders

24.6 - Nash
17.9 - Knight
16.2 - A.Miller
14.1 - B.Davis (GS, he was 13.8 in NO minutes)
13.7 - Jason Williams (MEM)
13.3 - Maurice Williams (MIL)
12.9 - Arroyo (UTA, 11.9 with DET)
12.5 - Kidd
12.2 - Livingston (LAC)
12.2 - Watson
12.0 - Francis
11.7 - Brunson
11.3 - Stoudamire (POR)
11.3 - Duhon
11.3 - Snow
11.2 - Iverson
11.2 - Boykins
10.8 - Marbury
10.8 - Payton
10.7 - Claxton (NO, 15.3 in lim min with GS)
10.6 - Terry
10.6 - Jaric
10.5 - Tinsley
10.5 - Carter (MIN)
10.5 - Lue
10.4 - Hinrich
10.3 - Ridnour
10.3 - Cassell
10.2 - Wade
10.2 - Telfair
10.2 - Hart
10.0 - LeBron James

...and the worst rated

-1.0 - Collier
-1.0 - Dalembert
-0.6 - Henderson (DAL)
-0.3 - Gadzuric
-0.1 - Fortson
0.0 - Bradley (DAL)
0.1 - Mutombo
0.1 - Battie
0.1 - Curry
0.1 - Hunter
0.1 - Wilcox
0.2 - Mohammad (NY)
0.3 - Pollard
0.3 - Sweetney
0.3 - Jerome James
0.3 - Okafor

it would probably be worth ranking by position...

"PG"

24.6 - Nash
17.9 - Knight
16.2 - A.Miller
14.1 - B.Davis
13.7 - Williams (MEM)
...
4.8 - Vaughn
4.1 - Best

"PG/SG"

12.0 Francis
11.7 Brunson
11.3 Snow
11.2 Iverson
10.6 Terry
...
1.4 Evans (SAC)
1.3 Snyder (UTA)

"SG/SF"

10.0 James (CLE)
7.7 Hamilton
7.0 Christie (SAC)
6.5 Cater (TOR)
6.1 Bryant
...
1.1 J.Jones (IND)
0.7 Lewis (SEA)


"SF/PF"

9.2 Kukoc
7.4 Garnett
6.8 Webber (SAC)
5.5 Kirilenko
5.3 Walker (BOS)
...
0.3 Sweetney
0.1 Wilcox

"PF/C"

6.0 Brad Miller
4.8 Shaq
4.4 Collins (UTA)
4.4 Camby
4.0 Duncan
...
-1.0 Dalembert
-1.0 Collier
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KD



Joined: 30 Jan 2005
Posts: 163

PostPosted: Sun Sep 04, 2005 4:15 pm    Post subject: Off-topic, my apologies ... Reply with quote

From a Ric Bucher piece on Rick Brunson ...

Quote:
"His assists per minutes played is one of the best in the league," Sund said. "What we like is that there is no unknown with him. You know what you're getting. He knows who he is."



http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?id=2149948

Not entirely true, but Brunson's assist ratio was third in the league last year.
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Ben F.



Joined: 07 Mar 2005
Posts: 391

PostPosted: Sun Sep 04, 2005 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Roland_Beech wrote:
the object obviously being to reward the passer more heavily for close/dunk asssists under the theory that the pass was a bigger contributor to the made bucket.
I'm slightly conflicted about this. On the one hand, I agree that an assist for a dunk is usually set up almost exclusively by the passer, and the finisher has to have very little ability to be able to finish. On the other hand, since an assist means that you have a guaranteed made shot, then shooting percentages are improved more by assists on jump shots.

That is, since the farther away from the basket you are, the harder the shot, then a great set up on the outside may be worth more (especially if it's for 3) than a great set up inside. Your chances have improved much more, relatively.
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kjb



Joined: 03 Jan 2005
Posts: 860
Location: Washington, DC

PostPosted: Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I also question giving a bonus for "close" assists. Why should a pass to cutter for an open dunk have more value in a rating system than say a big man passing out of a double team for an open 3? In the game, the open 3 is worth more, and the play (pass out and making the open 3) probably does more to change the way a defense plays. In this rating system, a pass-ahead to a wide-open teammate on the break, who makes an uncontested dunk has 4 times more value than that pass out of a double team. That doesn't seem right to me.
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Roland_Beech



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 43

PostPosted: Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well as I mentioned I think the formula was about 10 seconds worth of thought so it's not without drawbacks...

However, I do think inside assists are worth more than outside shot assists (since we can't tell how open a guy is at this stage). Part of it is that often the degree of difficulty on the pass is much harder (threading through defenders, etc) and part of it requires more understanding I believe of player movement (eg anticipating both your own teammate and the defenders).

I agree that a big man passing to a wide open perimeter player out of a double team can be valuable, but even more valuable is often the pass to a cutter down the lane in such a situation.

Anyway I would completely agree that passing stats are currently inadequate...that's one reason why this coming season should be exciting.
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HoopStudies



Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 705
Location: Near Philadelphia, PA

PostPosted: Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Roland_Beech wrote:
Well as I mentioned I think the formula was about 10 seconds worth of thought so it's not without drawbacks...

However, I do think inside assists are worth more than outside shot assists (since we can't tell how open a guy is at this stage). Part of it is that often the degree of difficulty on the pass is much harder (threading through defenders, etc) and part of it requires more understanding I believe of player movement (eg anticipating both your own teammate and the defenders).

I agree that a big man passing to a wide open perimeter player out of a double team can be valuable, but even more valuable is often the pass to a cutter down the lane in such a situation.

Anyway I would completely agree that passing stats are currently inadequate...that's one reason why this coming season should be exciting.


Frankly, I thought Roland's passing stats were the most representative of passing ability that I'd seen.

And, though the weights he used were derived out of the ether, they do represent a concept that does generally make sense. Defenses take away the inside more than jump shots. There should be modification so that 3pt jump shots get more weight than 2 pt jump shots, but that's relatively minor.

In general, doing this much with assists is pretty impressive. Assists are a measure of teamwork and teamwork is what I still think is the toughest thing we have to deal with. If a big man passes to a 3pt shooter who is then helped on by another guard, but swings it to another guy for an open 3pt shot -- both the big man and that perimeter guy did important things. (I'm not advocating 2 assists because I think that normally 1 is enough.) We already know about passes to guys who get fouled for 2 FT, which could get an assist and modify our interpretation of players a fair amount. We know that Euros don't give as many assists and that rules for giving assists have changed in the NBA. Assists are hard. We can do a lot better through a project like that at 82games, but that may not help interpret the past until we've studied things for many years. And, a lot of times, you can't forecast the future without understanding the past. So Roland's megaproject is going to be very very useful in going forward. (I think Dan's work has the capability of explaining assists, too. But I don't know what weight he ends up with -- my own personal lack of knowledge -- and, further, I don't think it readily allows us to infer their value in other leagues, at different distances, or if they were to start giving assists on free throws, I don't think we can easily know how that would change the weight.)

Always lots of questions on teamwork stuff...
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Ben F.



Joined: 07 Mar 2005
Posts: 391

PostPosted: Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's my attempt at a similar rating to Roland's, except based on the premise that it's better to assist on a jump shot than a close shot, for the reasons I mentioned above:

"Since the farther away from the basket you are, the harder the shot, then a great set up on the outside may be worth more than a great set up inside. Your chances have improved much more, relatively."

I took data from Roland's "Is Outside Shooting a Lost Art?" article, and decided to look at what players shot from each range on unassisted shots.

So for example, we see that people shot 90.8% on dunks over the period of data Roland analyzed, and 75% of those were assisted. That means that of the 25% that were not assisted, approximately 71.2% went in. Therefore the difference between an assisted dunk's chances of going in and an un-assisted dunk's chances are 28.8%, since an assist means a guaranteed bucket. (I'm sure this is flawed in some way, but I think that we can still measure relative values of each assist this way).

I did that with Jump and Close shots, also. So my formula becomes (((1-j%)*(jump+(1.5*3PT)))+((1-c%)*close)+((1-d%)*dunk))*(1-passTO%), and then divide that all by minutes played, and multiply by 400, just to make it look nicer (also based on a per 40 min basis, although I'm not sure it's measuring anything that would need to be quantified per 40 min).

Edit: Added a multiplier to three pointers to count them more.

j% = unassisted jump shot chance
c% = unassisted close shot chance
d% = unassisted dunk shot chance
passTO% = percentage of passes that ended in TOs

I then compared Roland's results to mine. Here's how it looks.

Roland's Top 10:
Code:

Roland's Rank - My Rank - Player
1 - 1 - Steve Nash
2 - 2 - Brevin Knight
3 - 32 - Andre Miller
4 - 13 - Jason Williams
5 - 12 - Maurice Williams
6 - 7 - Tyronn Lue
7 - 3 - Jason Kidd
8 - 15 - Earl Watson
9 - 34 - Steve Francis
10 - 10 - Rick Brunson


My Top 10:
Code:

My Rank - Roland's Rank - Player
1 - 1 - Steve Nash
2 - 2 - Brevin Knight
3 - 7 - Jason Kidd
4 - 50 - Milt Palacio
5 - 22 - Luke Ridnour
6 - 16 - Stephon Marbury
7 - 6 - Tyronn Lue
8 - 26 - Jason Hart
9 - 36 - Rafer Alston
10 - 10 - Rick Brunson


As you can see, there are some fairly significant differences. Nothing extreme, but enough to mean they are measuring very different things.

Milt Palacio is the biggest outlier on these lists, and that's because he had 234 "outside" assists, as opposed to 45 "inside" ones.

And here are the biggest differences:

Code:

My Rank - Roland's Rank - Player
126 - 205 - Mickael Pietrus
147 - 71 - Carmelo Anthony
166 - 91 - DeShawn Stevenson
99 - 173 - Ben Gordon
81 - 140 - Richard Jefferson
136 - 189 - Tim Thomas
213 - 161 - Udonis Haslem
87 - 135 - Eddie Gill
152 - 104 -  Nene
4 - 50 - Milt Palacio


Comments?
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THWilson



Joined: 19 Jul 2005
Posts: 164
Location: phoenix

PostPosted: Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FFSBasketball:
This doesn't make sense to me. I think the problem is that you are ignoring all the potential assists that didn't result in made baskets. For example here are some dummy values:
Assisted Dunk FG % = 80%
Unassisted Dunk FG % = 80%
Assisted Jump FG % = 40%
Unassited Jump FG % = 40%

In this scenario, a jump shot assist is worth three-times a dunk assist. But, potential assists don't help shooting percentage at all for jump shots or dunks. That doesn't make sense. Your model also seems to assume that it's equally easy to get an unassisted or assisted dunk. That rings false.
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