APBRmetrics

jeffpotts77 · Joined: 18 Feb 2005 Posts: 150 Location: Cambridge, MA

Big Ben just won again. Should we start up a poll in here for Defensive player of the year honors? I would start it, but I'm not sure if I might leave someone off. Here's who'd I'd include:

Ben Wallace
Tayshawn Prince
Tim Duncan
Bruce Bowen
Andrei Kirilenko
Jason Kidd
Tyson Chandler

Who else should be included?

Eli W · Joined: 01 Feb 2005 Posts: 402

Dikembe Mutombo. He doesn't get big minutes, but his impact on the defensive end is still huge.

kjb · Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 864 Location: Washington, DC

Along with Mutombo -- Jeff Foster, Jason Collins and Brendan Haywood all had MAJOR defensive impact when they were in the game.

FrontRange · Joined: 27 Jan 2005 Posts: 131

Marcus Camby has been a monster defensively this year - according the 82games he blocked 5.8% of shots attempted when he was in the game (compared to 4.1% of Wallace and 6.8% for AK) and controlled 25.9% of the defensive rebounds which I beleive is the second best rate in the league (trailing only KG).

Eli W · Joined: 01 Feb 2005 Posts: 402

Has anyone gone through all of the player pages on 82games and made a ranking of the top on court/off court net defensive numbers? Or a ranking of lowest opponent PER?

Ben F. · Joined: 07 Mar 2005 Posts: 391

I have them from some time about 3/4 of the way through the season, I think. Capped at -5% and +5%, with a limit of at least 300 min through that point in the season.

So here is the rank (I eliminated some of those that hadn't held up throughout the season, or that benefited from small sample size after changing teams), name, minutes played up through that point in the season, and difference in eFG% defense. I'll update for the end of the season (or Roland can, I guess) if I have time.

Kevin Pelton · Posted: Mon May 02, 2005 10:14 pm Post subject:

My personal pet candidate for Defensive Player of the Year is Kirk Hinrich, who finished about 10th.

The Bulls managed to be a great defensive team without any shot-blocking from their starting five and many steals, which piques my attention. It was all opponent field-goal percentage, which to me reflects on how well they contest shots everywhere on the court.

If you look at them as a team, they totally shut down opposing shooting guards, and that's all Hinrich -- he was pretty much always defending the two.

Watching him against the Sonics, I was even more impressed. Hinrich defended Ray Allen as well or better than anyone all year despite his offensive responsibilities. I don't think Hinrich was the best defender in the league, but I probably would have chipped him a third-place vote.

Ben F. · Joined: 07 Mar 2005 Posts: 391

An interesting pick - but how do you justify the Bulls playing 2.7% better eFG defense in his 1166 minutes off the court?

Kevin Pelton · Posted: Mon May 02, 2005 10:46 pm Post subject:

I really don't find those numbers particularly meaningful because of noise and lineup combinations.

Another Chicago guard with a terrible defensive rep (Ben Gordon) rates very well by that measure, but if you look at his individual stats (Hinrich's opposing PG numbers, since Gordon defends PGs when they are in the lineup together), they're below average.

If there was an explanation in the way of team defense - as I believe there is in the case of Nick Collison, to give one example - I might be inclined to go with the on-court/off-court numbers, but I don't see that here.

tempe85 · Joined: 08 Apr 2005 Posts: 8

I can't believe that entire list of 25 previously posted did not include Shawn Marion. He's been unbelievable for the Suns this year defensively. A guy only 6-7 has been forced to guard 7-1 guys all season long and he's made it work, without Marion capable of doing this the Suns would have never been able to run with that small lineup and would have never finished close to 62 wins. Maybe his defensive numbers against haven't been the greatest (if you look at how the PF position performed against the Suns) but giving up 6-7 inches to players is monumental. You can quite literally throw out the Stat sheet (which he does have great stats I might add) when you look at Marion's defensive abilities this year.

Of coarse real sports writers voted enough for him to finish 4th so I don't know what I'm complaining about. Laughing

**Roland_Beech** · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 43

ah, defense. the big kabana.

there is a lot to it, right?

- one on one shooting defense, eg holding your opponent to a low FG% or low pts per shot

- forcing turnovers

- help defense

- overall influence on team defense

- defensive rebounding (and box outs, etc that secure the rebound for your team even if you don't get it as a player)

- denying your man the ball, the shot, the good position

- "maintaining position" for the team defense, eg being in the right place, fighting through screens, not allowing your man to make an assisted pass

...just to name a few. Many of the effects are clearly complex -- committing a hard foul underneath has likely positive value in deterring future forays into the paint, but also puts your team potentially into the penalty, and yourself into foul trouble

That's not even dabbling in how your offense changes defense. I.e. do you give the same credit for "defense" if one player does next to nothing on offense (hello Bruce Bowen) and the other is using 25% of team possessions?

I'm not sure that people voting for the Defensive Player of the Year award are on the same page when it comes to what should be factored in. Most likely it comes down to:

1) reputation
2) shots blocked
3) steals
4) the team's defense in pts per game allowed and WL success

this is the area along with passing that I think will benefit the most from "extreme charting"

anyway, here are the on/off leaders on defense

-13.2 Collins (NJ)
-10.6 Mutombo
-9.9 Haywood
-9.1 Duncan
-8.8 Foster
-8.3 Kirilenko
-7.7 Allen (Bos)
-7.5 Christie (Sac)
-6.9 Ratliff
-6.4 Cato
-6.4 Drobnjak
-6.4 Ginobili
-6.3 Williams (NY)
-6.1 Anderson (NO)
-6.1 Watson
-6.1 Battier
-5.7 Nesterovic
-5.7 Diaw
-5.6 Prince

[worst: McGrady, Croshere, Harping, J.Rose, JR Smith, Wade, Nocioni, Mason]

..or if you go by pts per 100 allowed while on court

95.3 Mutombo
95.8 Duncan
96.8 Nesterovic
97.1 Ginobili
98.5 Harrington (Chi)
99.4 Bowen (SA)
99.5 Barry (Hou)
99.5 Parker (SA)
99.6 Collins (NJ)
99.9 Horry
100.1 Gordon
100.2 Wallace, Rasheed
100.3 Foster
100.4 Duhon
100.5 Prince
100.6 Davis (Chi)
100.6 Wallace, Ben
100.7 Chandler

[worst: Lue, Childress, Harpring, Atkins, JR Smith]

On vs Off Team Defense eFG allowed

-.052 Mutombo
-.042 Haywood
-.042 Gordon
-.040 Kirilenko
-.040 Kapono (Cha)
-.036 Anderson (NO)
-.033 Ariza
-.033 Duncan
-.033 Diaw
-.032 Collison
-.031 Foster
-.029 Odom
-.029 Billups
-.028 Miles

[worst: McGrady, Croshere, Payton, Wade, Ming]

Team On/Off defensive rebounding

+6.2% Collins (NJ)
+6.1% Brand
+5.0% Foster
+4.4% Nene
+4.4% Bosh
+4.2% Pierce
+4.1% Drobnjak
+4.0% Gooden
+3.9% Dampier
+3.8% Wright (Mem)
+3.7% Battier
+3.6% Barry (SA)
+3.5% Francis
+3.4% Brown (NO)
+3.4% Simmons
+3.3% Ratliff
+3.3% Claxton
+3.2% O'Neal (Mia)

[worst effect: Stoudemire, J.Johnson, Iguodala, Arenas, R.Davis]

...kind of an interesting one. Speedy Claxton! There may be a fair amount of guys-who-push-it deter opponents from going for the OFF'rebounds as much

On/Off FTA attempted per 48minutes by Opponent

-9.0 Collins
-8.8 Ratliff
-8.4 Ilgauskas
-8.2 Prince
-8.1 Haywood
-8.0 Gooden
-7.6 Wright (Mem)
-7.3 Foyle
-7.2 Cato
-7.1 Mihm
-7.0 Blount
-7.0 Evans (Sea)
-6.9 Newble
-6.8 Ginobili
-6.8 Bosh
-6.8 Bowen (SA)
-6.7 Duhon
-6.5 Dampier
-6.3 Duncan
-6.3 Francis
-6.0 Dunleavy

[worst: Delk, R.Davis, Traylor, Ruffin, Gordon, B.Barry, Radmanovic]
..some bias in this for guys who don't play in the "bonus minutes"

anyway, that's probably more numbers than anyone here cared for.

in trying to vote for someone it's hard for me given there are different roles -- how do you compare a perimeter defender to the shot-blocking big man? -- but in general I view it as a battle of Duncan, Haywood, Prince (Mutombo didn't play quite enough minutes for my tastes to deserve the top award) and I'm giving it to Timmy.

trapp76_2002 · Joined: 03 May 2005 Posts: 6

What about the Opp PER put up against a player? Wouldn't that be a more accurate measure of defensive ability as opposed to simple +/- ???

The data is here:
http://www.82games.com/peronoff0405.htm

Just wondering if anyone has a list of players with at least 10% min ranked by Opp PER this season.

kjb · Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 864 Location: Washington, DC

Great info, Roland.

HoopStudies · Posted: Tue May 03, 2005 9:23 pm Post subject:

trapp76_2002 · Joined: 03 May 2005 Posts: 6