APBRmetrics

Kevin Pelton · Posted: Wed Jun 04, 2008 11:44 am Post subject: **Eli W** Interview

http://mvn.com/mlb-stats/2008/06/04/basketball-sabermetrics/

As the interview is with a baseball site, I found this question interesting.

Ryan J. Parker · Joined: 23 Mar 2007 Posts: 708 Location: Raleigh, NC

I personally try to read as much as I can find from baseball and football.

Good interview, BTW.

Neil Paine · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

Yeah, I'm actually pretty heavily involved in stat analysis for all 4 major sports (basketball, baseball, football, & hockey), not just hoops. After I read Moneyball for the first time when I was a junior in high school, there was just no going back...

mtamada · Joined: 28 Jan 2005 Posts: 376

Perhaps an even more interesting crossover is one into a realm which is entirely different, yet which has many of the same features as sports: politics. If you read much sabrmetrics, then you've probably read some of Nate Silver's stuff -- he's one of the authors at BaseballProspectus.com. As a sideline, he's got a website where he studies political stats.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/no-im-not-chuck-todd.html

Since long before the Oakland A's dreamed of hiring Billy Beane, political parties have been hiring statistical consultants to study political precincts, pollster data, voter demographics, etc. If you like this kind of stuff, there's undoubtedly a lot more (and potentially better paying) jobs in the political world than in the sports world.

mtamada · Joined: 28 Jan 2005 Posts: 376

More on Nate Silver, the sabrmetrician attracting notice as a political stats pundit, in Newsweek.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/140469

Mountain · Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Posts: 1527

It would be a only a rough guide but perhaps you could treat lineups played against as "precincts" in a manner similar to what Nate Silver did for the Presidential primary and predict a specific lineup's (the candidate) performance against future precincts based on the similarities and differences between profiles. With the methodology down, the right set of variables and the time and incentive. Instead of just looking at raw or adjusted overall lineup +/-.

In addition to war gaming at the tactical level you could try to look at the bigger strategic picture. It would be hard to predict how lineup vs lineup would go exactly in an entire game as coaches may react in unique ways but you probably could understand current rotation patterns and match-up tendencies and crank out data that might aid thinking about strategic adjustment patterns.

Some people may already be doing something in this vein.