APBRmetrics

Ben · Joined: 13 Jan 2005 Posts: 266 Location: Iowa City

Just curious.

Mike G · Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 5:56 pm Post subject:

Here's what I have in eWins for rookies:

6.9 Howard,Dwight Orl
6.7 Okafor,Emeka Cha
5.2 Gordon,Ben Chi
4.8 Iguodala,Andre Phl
4.3 Smith,Josh Atl
4.2 Childress,Josh Atl
3.8 Krstic,Nenad NJ
3.6 Deng,Luol Chi
2.8 Nelson,Jameer Orl
2.6 Bonner,Matt Tor
2.6 Al Jefferson Bos
2.5 Duhon,Chris Chi
2.5 Nocioni,Andres Chi
2.3 Varejao,Anderson Cle
2.1 Udrih,Beno SA
2.1 Allen,Tony Bos

Not that all of these guys are in serious contention; I just wanted to illustrate that the top 14 rookies (by some measures) are in the East.

You got the top 3; but AI-2 played lots of minutes and had the highest TS% (.580) of any rook.

These 4 Chicago rookies total 13.8 eWins. Thru twisted logic, the Bulls would've won ~27 fewer games without them.

Edit: I've had trouble tracking rookies, and am grateful for (subsequent) reminders. 2 guys have been added to above list.

Ben · Joined: 13 Jan 2005 Posts: 266 Location: Iowa City

I know he didn't play big minutes, but are you by chance forgetting Al Jefferson?

Mike G · Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 11:19 pm Post subject:

Mike G · Posted: Sat Apr 23, 2005 7:33 am Post subject:

With just 8 votes cast, it's 5 for Gordon, 2 for Howard, 1 for Okafor.

Even though it's a small sample, it makes me wonder:

-- Are we prejudiced against bigger players? Do the big men split the big-man vote even further? Or is Scoring much more of a Skill than, say, just being big and doing the trench work?

-- Do we consider playing for a playoff team such an accomplishment as to overshadow the obvious: that the worst teams get the first picks. The Bulls, after all, had 4 of the league's top 12 rookies; so it's not as if Gordon was The One.

-- Do we project future development in our ROY choice? Is Okafor near the peak of his abilities, relative to others? Do we cringe that Mike Miller was ROY, and Kenyon Martin was not ?

**Roland_Beech** · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 43

obviously there are different questions --

Which player would you want on your team going forward if you could pick now?
(I'd take Howard)

Which player posted the "best stats" in a traditional sense?
(probably Okafor)

Which player had the biggest positive impact on his team's success in the current season?
(I go with Gordon -- a +147 plus/minus and +4.8 on/off along with numerous "game winning" fourth quarter efforts, versus Okafor's -344 and -1.3 on/off, and Howard's -183 and -3.1)

I think the third question is the one that should determine Rookie of the Year, so I vote for Gordon.

Ben · Joined: 13 Jan 2005 Posts: 266 Location: Iowa City

jambalaya · Joined: 30 Jan 2005 Posts: 282

gordon has the best +/- but his net per is about +4. howard is +5, okafor less than +1.

all had nice seasons. none is clearly stronger than the other two to me. a split award might happen here. most likely between howard and okafor as the #1 and #2 draft picks.

Ben · Joined: 13 Jan 2005 Posts: 266 Location: Iowa City

I know it's happened a few times, but aren't the odds of a split award pretty low absent colllusion among voters?

BTW, I'd be interested to hear who the "somebody else" was.

jambalaya · Joined: 30 Jan 2005 Posts: 282

on something like the ROY (not that important) the final layer of decisionmaking above the actual vote is david stern's. i see no reason to ruleout him splitting the award if he thinks is best for marketing purposes. how far his use of "management discretion" extends to other things (e.g. draft lottery fixing allegations or MVP) i dont have a set opinion about.

stuart mckibbin · Joined: 13 Jan 2005 Posts: 17

Mike, how many eWins did Telfair, Livingston, Devin Harris and Maurice Evans have?

Mike G · Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2005 5:03 pm Post subject:

Rookies . . eW/48 eWins

Devin Harris . .069 1.7
Maurice Evans .044 1.1
S. Livingston . .023 0.4
Seb. Telfair . . .005 0.2

Telfair was just a whisker above "replacement player" level.

Ben · Joined: 13 Jan 2005 Posts: 266 Location: Iowa City

How about Varejao? He's pretty good.

jambalaya · Joined: 30 Jan 2005 Posts: 282

pippen has a column indicating a choice of gordon because of his key role scoring in the fourth contributng to wins and the playoffs. those are good reasons (and the chicago connection is probably also a part of it), but i doubt he passes two double-double stat guys. it is not MVP of the rookie class to a lot of voters, it is more of an individual honor.

if you went searching for other guy close to the top i'd named iguodala and deng.

KD · Joined: 30 Jan 2005 Posts: 163

One thing I'm having a hard time taking in ...

Bulls PR staff told us after the game tonight that Andres Nocioni, whom I love, broke the rookie record for rebounds in a playoff game, with 18. Drew Gooden, apparently, had the old record, with 17.

"A rookie in his first playoff game?" I asked. "No, most rebounds by a rookie, ever."

Wow.

More than Russell and Wilt? Back when the pace was nutty and pulling 18 put you 3rd in the league? More than Robinson or Duncan or Bird or Hayes or Unseld or ... does this make sense?