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APBRmetrics
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Crow
Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 825
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 Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 3:48 pm Post subject: |
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| kjb wrote: | My theory is that inefficient, low-usage players are more easily tolerated if they play inside because they can't be ignored.
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I am inclined to agree on the surface but would want to check the numbers.
I think it is probably easier to have a low-usage player with 4 average to above average usage guys than with just 3 and another guy who is borderline or low. Would want to check lineup data for that even though it would be difficult to be conclusive.
Wallace is bottom 1/3rd on 3 of the 4 Adjusted Offensive Factors. But in the end it is what the lineup does that really matters.
The lowest Adjusted Offensive Ratings for big minute low usage perimeter guys appear to be Rasual Butler and Thabo Sefolosha. Thabo more than offset his negative offense with defense (at least in the past), Butler was close to a wash. |
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bchaikin
Joined: 27 Jan 2005
Posts: 690
Location: cleveland, ohio
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| Posted: Sat Dec 05, 2009 6:34 pm Post subject: |
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After his monster 2002 (278 blocks and 138 steals), his defensive numbers drop. And if you check out his annual home-away splits, for the next 4 years he (ben wallace) was credited with between 50% and 100% more blocks at home than away... So, how much do his DRtg and DWS change, if his Blk% is 'really' 20-30% lower than listed, during those prime years for the franchise?...
from 02-03 to 05-06, ben wallace's 4 years with the pistons after his 01-02 campaign (278 BS, 138 ST), detroit had the league's 3rd best regular season W-L record. they also had the league's 3rd best home winning percentage, and the league's 3rd best road winning percentage. they rank only 9th in the league in offensive efficiency these 4 years (most points scored per team offensive possession), but rank 2nd best to only san antonio in defensive efficiency (least points allowed per team defensive possession)...
Conversely, maybe he was great at only one end, and only at home.
this is a team that won primarily because of it's defense, and ranked 3rd in winning percentage both home and away... maybe his teammates were great on defense only on the road versus at home?...
My feeling, which is based on 20 seasons of covering NBA games, is that the home/road splits aren't mainly based on home players getting undeserved blocks/assists, but on road players not getting deserved blocks/assists.
i'd say that in this case this is the far more likely scenario... |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3623
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 6:28 am Post subject: |
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| bchaikin wrote: |
home/road splits aren't mainly based on home players getting undeserved blocks/assists, but on road players not getting deserved blocks/assists.
i'd say that in this case this is the far more likely scenario... |
We have these possibilities:
1) While Wallace's skills slip (after '02), the Detroit scorekeeper gives him lots of extra blocks at home.
2) An overwhelming majority of the league's other 29 scorekeepers suddenly stop seeing the same plays that were blocks in 2001-02, and subsequently fail to record 30-50% of his blocks for the rest of his Pistons career.
While we have had a scorekeeper admitting to the practice of 'inflating' home players' stats, it's hard to even come up with a theory for #2.
| Quote: | | from 02-03 to 05-06,.. the pistons... had the league's 3rd best home winning percentage, and the league's 3rd best road winning percentage. |
In other words, in spite of Wallace getting vastly fewer blocks on the road, their defense was just as good? Then maybe he wasn't really worse on the road? He just wasn't really that good at home?
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stareagle
Joined: 19 Feb 2009
Posts: 65
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 11:19 am Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: |
2) An overwhelming majority of the league's other 29 scorekeepers suddenly stop seeing the same plays that were blocks in 2001-02, and subsequently fail to record 30-50% of his blocks for the rest of his Pistons career.
While we have had a scorekeeper admitting to the practice of 'inflating' home players' stats, it's hard to even come up with a theory for #2. |
It is? Scorekeepers don't give road players as many blocks or assists as they deserve. How is that hard to come up with?
| Quote: | | In other words, in spite of Wallace getting vastly fewer blocks on the road, their defense was just as good? Then maybe he wasn't really worse on the road? He just wasn't really that good at home? |
Or, he was very good at home and on the road, but not getting the blocks he deserved on the road. That's the one that seems to make the most logical sense. |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3623
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 11:46 am Post subject: |
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League-wide average credit for blocks home/road does not account for:
1) a player's home-away splits changing drastically from one year to the next;
2) players on the same team having drastically different home/away ratios.
While it's conceivable that a player may suddenly become 'unpopular' among scorekeepers around the league, it would almost require a conspiracy of some sort.
Meanwhile, one scorekeeper deciding he really 'likes' an individual (or a mandate coming down from his 'organization') seems a lot more plausible; and we know that this does happen.
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RChung
Joined: 28 Nov 2009
Posts: 10
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 11:50 am Post subject: |
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| stareagle wrote: | | It is? Scorekeepers don't give road players as many blocks or assists as they deserve. How is that hard to come up with? [...] Or, he was very good at home and on the road, but not getting the blocks he deserved on the road. That's the one that seems to make the most logical sense. |
Then you should see a similar differential in home-away for every player in the league. |
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stareagle
Joined: 19 Feb 2009
Posts: 65
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| Posted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 2:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | | Meanwhile, one scorekeeper deciding he really 'likes' an individual (or a mandate coming down from his 'organization') seems a lot more plausible; and we know that this does happen. |
Except in the recent discussion about home/road biases, Detroit came up as below average in giving extra blocks to the home team. So for them to be giving massive amounts of extra blocks to Wallace, were they penalizing the rest of the Pistons? |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3623
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 7:38 am Post subject: |
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Here again, you're referring to something less specific and entirely less relevant. Blocks given/not given to Pistons last season have no bearing on what went on in Wallace's earlier time there.
Ratio of all Det blocks, home and away, relative to opponent FGA: | Code: | yr BlkH/A coach
2000 1.04 Gentry
2001 1.23 Irvine
2002 1.13 Carlisle
2003 1.39 Carlisle
2004 1.42 L Brown
2005 1.33 L Brown
2006 1.34 Saunders
2007 1.10 Saunders
2008 1.40 Saunders
2009 1.25 Curry
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The middle section represents Wallace's 4 seasons as an All-Star selection. 2002 was his truly 'monster' year (and he was all-NBA, DPOY).
2005 was the year he got twice as many blocks at home. Yet his teammates didn't enjoy that kind of disparity.
| Code: | Blocks'05 Home Away
B Wallace 118 58
R Wallace 57 58
Prince 38 33
McDyess 26 26
Milicic 12 5
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OK, Darko did.
But can we suppose other scorekeepers loved Rasheed, relative to Ben?
Or that Det's disliked these other guys?
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stareagle
Joined: 19 Feb 2009
Posts: 65
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| Posted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:39 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | | Here again, you're referring to something less specific and entirely less relevant. Blocks given/not given to Pistons last season have no bearing on what went on in Wallace's earlier time there. |
Actually, I was referring to the long-term numbers, but I'll admit that I didn't notice it was 23 years of data - I was thinking it was the decade.
This still doesn't make logical sense, though. We're saying that Ben Wallace had a great year in 2002, started getting significantly *more* blocks from the Palace scoring crew in 2003, and his overall block percentage went *down*? |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3623
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2009 7:07 am Post subject: |
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| stareagle wrote: | | ... We're saying that Ben Wallace had a great year in 2002, started getting significantly *more* blocks from the Palace scoring crew in 2003, and his overall block percentage went *down*? |
No, he got *fewer* blocks everywhere else in the league.
His shotblocking peaked at age 27. Rebounding at age 28. These rates seldom peak any later than this, for any player type. And after you peak, you drop off.
I've looked at the careers of a number of shotblockers, and this is a recurrent theme: As their blocks decline, they receive more of a boost from the home scorekeeper. Home/away disparity is a separate issue from declining skills, but they're often mixed up.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3623
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2009 10:06 am Post subject: |
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Estimated 'extra' blocks attributed to Pistons, 2000-09, based on difference between home and away blocks per 36 minutes. | Code: | xBlk Player yr HBk/36 ABk/36 H/ABlk
54 Wallace,Ben 2004 3.54 2.27 1.56
53 Wallace,Ben 2005 3.01 1.66 1.81
47 Wallace,Ben 2003 3.45 2.30 1.50
31 Wallace,Ben 2006 2.65 1.87 1.41
25 Prince,Tayshaun 2004 1.27 .58 2.18
25 Wallace,Ben 2001 2.73 2.10 1.30
23 Wallace,Rasheed 2008 2.39 1.63 1.47
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The only players in this interval to have more xBlk in a season are LaFrentz (69) and McGrady (60), both in 2000.
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stareagle
Joined: 19 Feb 2009
Posts: 65
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| Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2009 3:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | | stareagle wrote: | | ... We're saying that Ben Wallace had a great year in 2002, started getting significantly *more* blocks from the Palace scoring crew in 2003, and his overall block percentage went *down*? |
No, he got *fewer* blocks everywhere else in the league. |
Sorry, I meant more as in more "extra blocks". According to your next post, he got at least 25 more "extra blocks" in 2003 than he did in 2002. and still saw his total go from 278 to 230. I'm just surprised that, using those numbers, his real block total went from 278 to a little over 200 - a drop of about 27 percent in one season. |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3623
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Fri Jan 01, 2010 8:58 am Post subject: |
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Having happened upon this article by Kevin Pelton:
http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=841
... in which he ranks his top 20 players of the decade just finished, by way of WARP (wins above replacement player)..
I decided to revive this thread (after 3+ pages of discussion about 'how good was Ben Wallace'), and include WARP totals alongside the other 2 known player-win metrics, eWins and Win Shares.
Of the 3, WARP seems to give the most credit to super-players, and WS the fewest; so they're listed in this order.
(Also so that the resulting acronym of their average does not read like a wrestling stat or a foul odor.)
Ranked by this average:
WEW = (WARP + eW + WS)/3; or simply (eW + WS)/2 if WARP are unknown, half-parenthesized.
Stareagle started this thread, and his ranks are shown in the last column. No magnitudes, though. | Code: | WEW player WARP eWins WinShare stea
158.6 Garnett 195.8 1 149.4 2 130.5 2 1
156.4 Duncan 191.9 2 150.1 1 127.3 3 2
142.4 Nowitzki 155.1 4 134.5 4 137.6 1 3
140.2 Kobe 160.4 3 134.9 3 125.2 4 5
121.7 Shaq 142.6 6 120.8 5 101.6 6 8
113.5 Pierce 125.8 12 114.5 6 100.3 7 12
109.2 McGrady 128.2 8 111.1 7 88.2 11 14
109.1 Kidd 143.7 5 97.0 10 86.5 12 6
108.7 Marion 127.3 11 96.5 12 102.3 5 4
104.0 LeBron 132.0 7 96.7 11 83.4 14 --
103.6 Nash 127.7 10 84.2 15 98.9 8 11
101.9 Brand 127.7 9 95.9 13 82.2 15 9
100.9 Carter 110.0 14 107.6 8 85.2 13 13
96.8 Iverson 104.3 15 106.6 9 79.4 16 --
95.2 Allen 99.0 17 91.4 14 95.3 9 16
88.1 Billups 93.9 20 78.0 19 92.4 10 --
85.3 Gasol 102.4 16 80.7 17 72.7 23 20
84.7 Ben Wallace 112.7 13 63.4 36 78.1 19 7
81.8 A Miller 96.0 18 75.7 21 73.8 21 15
73.6 Wade 95.6 19 68.9 29 56.2 43 --
79.6) Rasheed --- --- 82.4 16 76.8 20 10
75.4) Lewis --- --- 72.5 23 78.2 18 18
74.5) Jamison --- --- 78.1 18 70.9 24 19
72.1) Terry --- --- 70.6 27 73.7 22 --
70.5) Peja --- --- 62.6 38 78.3 17 --
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No one else had any top-20 placement among eW or WS.
Marcus Camby was ranked 17th by stareagle. 39th and 34th in eW and WS.
p.s. - WARP covers a slightly different time period :
| Quote: | | I am considering only games played within the decade chronologically, so 1999-00 values were adjusted to cover only the portion of the season starting Jan. 1 and this season is included through Monday night. |
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