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The Diminishing Returns of Rebounds and Other Stats

 
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Jon Nichols



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 370
PostPosted: Sun Dec 06, 2009 8:17 pm    Post subject: The Diminishing Returns of Rebounds and Other Stats Reply with quote
I took a look at the diminishing returns of rebounds using a very similar method to the one used by Eli Witus last year. When I first did the study, I didn't realize it had already been done, but now it'll serve as a nice replication of his work. I also decided to break the data down by location (home/away) and looked at the diminishing returns of blocks, steals, and assists. The article is below:

http://basketball-statistics.com/blog1/2009/12/06/the-diminishing-returns-of-rebounds-and-other-stats/
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back2newbelf



Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 276
PostPosted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 5:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
link doesn't work for me
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Jon Nichols



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 370
PostPosted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Which link? They both seem to be working for me...
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schtevie



Joined: 18 Apr 2005
Posts: 414
PostPosted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 11:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Jon, just thinking out loud here. I can't say I have much intuition on the point, but to the extent that coaches try to match up to avoid being out rebounded at both ends of the court, wouldn't the marginal effect of projected ORR be diminished by not including projected opponent DRR in the regression? Curious to see those results (both the extent to which projected ORR is correlated with projected opponent DRR and the relationship to actual ORR and DRR) if it wouldn't be too much trouble.
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Jon Nichols



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 370
PostPosted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
schtevie wrote:
Jon, just thinking out loud here. I can't say I have much intuition on the point, but to the extent that coaches try to match up to avoid being out rebounded at both ends of the court, wouldn't the marginal effect of projected ORR be diminished by not including projected opponent DRR in the regression? Curious to see those results (both the extent to which projected ORR is correlated with projected opponent DRR and the relationship to actual ORR and DRR) if it wouldn't be too much trouble.


That definitely makes sense. I'll see what I can do about that.
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cherokee_ACB



Joined: 22 Mar 2006
Posts: 157
PostPosted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 6:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
schtevie wrote:
Jon, just thinking out loud here. I can't say I have much intuition on the point, but to the extent that coaches try to match up to avoid being out rebounded at both ends of the court, wouldn't the marginal effect of projected ORR be diminished by not including projected opponent DRR in the regression? Curious to see those results (both the extent to which projected ORR is correlated with projected opponent DRR and the relationship to actual ORR and DRR) if it wouldn't be too much trouble.


Your intuition is correct, although the coefficients do not change much
viewtopic.php?p=19835#19835
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RChung



Joined: 28 Nov 2009
Posts: 10
PostPosted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 6:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
cherokee_ACB wrote:

Your intuition is correct, although the coefficients do not change much
viewtopic.php?p=19835#19835

Have you considered doing a Tukey MD plot and overlaying a local regression?
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Jon Nichols



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 370
PostPosted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Ryan, here is the modified Assists chart using the 0.8 multiplier for each individual assist rate:



With the change, the slope is larger.
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Ryan J. Parker



Joined: 23 Mar 2007
Posts: 711
Location: Raleigh, NC
PostPosted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 9:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Cool, thanks. Not a huge difference, but I was expecting to see a larger slope. I think that because of the way assist rate is constructed, there is definitely more data massaging that must be done.

To try and get around this, perhaps look just at assist rate on 3pt shots. It still matters which players are taking the shots, but maybe that gives more insight into what is going on.
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