APBRmetrics

DLew · Joined: 13 Nov 2006 Posts: 224

davis,

I really appreciate you posting these numbers regularly and I hope you continue to do so, I consider it a valuable resource. I think Dean's numbers are some of the best box score based numbers available.

I think Dan and I have made it clear that adjusted plus-minus has a myriad of issues, just look at the standard errors at basketballvalue, only a handful of players have ratings that are statistically different than average.

cherokee_ACB · Joined: 22 Mar 2006 Posts: 157

**Neil Paine** · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

HoopStudies · Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 8:00 am Post subject:

**Neil Paine** · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

Thanks, Dean.

I guess I was just disheartened, thinking that I was perhaps barking up the wrong tree in terms of using ORtg/%Pos/DRtg as the fundamental (boxscore-based) tools for assessing a player's worth. But you're right, anything we do is obviously going to be a very simplified model of reality (as is the nature of any statistical model), and we're going to miss out on a lot of teammate-interaction effects as a result.

Then again, adjusted +/- theoretically does a better job of handling these non-linear aspects of the game, but the results are so noisy that I question the value of in-season adj +/- updates (in-season updates kinda being the entire premise of this thread).

So I'm going to stick with what I've been doing. It's not going to paint a perfectly accurate picture, but then again, which boxscore stat does? I just didn't want to be wasting my time on stats that people were dismissing out of hand. But most people seem to be appreciating it, so I'll keep updating whenever possible.

HoopStudies · Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:44 am Post subject:

Mountain · Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Posts: 1527

Using ORtg/%Pos/DRtg as the fundamental (boxscore-based) tools for assessing a player's worth captures their value on that team in the role(s) assigned by the coach and the particular mix of lineups used in. Change the team, the coach directed role or lineup mix and player performance may change in various ways.

The ORtg/%Pos/DRtg of a player in subgroups of 5 man lineups might offer additional insight into player performance patterns under different conditions and expectations and into underlying abilities and could help guide future usage.

Change the team and the rollup data on previous team offers some general guidance but changes may occur. Understanding of a player at the 5 man lineup level might make projection of performance on a different team a little sharper- match up the 5 man lineup conditions the player will see in the rotation on the new team to the data of 5 man lienups most similar to that on the old team. That may be more informative the old team rollup average.

As others have suggested here and previously counterpart defensive ability and performance ideally should supplement the team defensive performance captured by "defensive rating".

Harold Almonte · Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 616

Every possession play is constituted by the: a) gain/lost of the possession, b) production/allowance of the scoring points, and c) the direct and non direct help/ non help. In the attempt to weight he help is when the troubles come. +/- weight it the same than the other part of the action, and Oliver probably weight it very high at the defensive end.

Bigs receive statistical defensive help from teammates, specially at rebounds, since these teammates could have less access to the rebounding zone; and these bigs help other teammates in the termination of a lot of shot defense and could be statistically reflected in some defensive metrics, but how much is the value of that and the frecuency? I've heard about aproximatedly 60/40 relationship between off/def rebounding (1 on 1); 60/40 between the inside/outside the painted zone usage, shots, and rebounds; 80/20 between the inside/outside the 3 point line usage and shots, but I suspect that the relationship between the help and the final action of a play (scoring, allowing, gaining or losing) is neither 80/20, nor 50/50.

**Neil Paine** · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

Stats at the All-Star Break

Glossary of Terms

**Neil Paine** · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

**Neil Paine** · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

**Neil Paine** · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

**Neil Paine** · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

End of February Stats

Glossary of Terms

**Neil Paine** · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA

**Neil Paine** · Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 774 Location: Atlanta, GA