APBRmetrics

**mtamada** · Joined: 28 Jan 2005 Posts: 377

So far, the schedule has one or two posters about basketball, and just one featured presentation about the NBA -- but it could be an interesting one: "Player and Lineup Analysis in the NBA - Wayne Winston, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University".

He's the co-author of the Winston-Sagarin WinVal model, the original adjusted plus-minus model, or at least the first sophisticated one.

If all he does is describe what WinVal does, that would not be very interesting. Anybody can generate numbers, and while WinVal and APM are theoretically sound they're also subject to big standard errors. So any single set of numbers is not going to be the last word on evaluating NBA players.

But if he compares it to APM, or shows new analyses or new applications that can be done with WinVal, that would be quite interesting.

I'm still undecided about attending (it's all the way across the country for me), but I'm leaning slightly towards attending.

http://www.amstat.org/chapters/boston/nessis09/program.html

Ryan J. Parker · Joined: 23 Mar 2007 Posts: 711 Location: Raleigh, NC

Thanks. There seem to be a lot of interesting topics.
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Eli W · Joined: 01 Feb 2005 Posts: 402

Winston also has a sports statistics book coming out soon which I assume will have at least a chapter or two on WinVal. He's started a blog for it here - http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/

I'm hoping to attend the conference but I'm not in for sure yet.

**mtamada** · Joined: 28 Jan 2005 Posts: 377

Ryan J. Parker · Joined: 23 Mar 2007 Posts: 711 Location: Raleigh, NC

His blog is Mathletics. Nice.

I'd like to go, but I'll be in Florida. I hope the video will be online again.
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basketballvalue · Joined: 07 Mar 2006 Posts: 208

I just registered, who else will be attending?

Thanks, see you there,
Aaron
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bbarnwell · Joined: 10 Mar 2009 Posts: 26 Location: Brookline, MA

Not sure about his basketball stuff, but his football stuff is significantly behind the times, about where we (FO) were in 2003. He's overvaluing Vick because most of his runs come in short-yardage and goal-line situations; valuable, sure, but nothing special compared to the league-average in those situations. He's also probably going to hype Mike Alstott as an elite back in the book under the same logic.

**mtamada** · Joined: 28 Jan 2005 Posts: 377

HoopStudies · Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 8:49 pm Post subject:

I won't be attending. Training camp starts that day. I look forward to hearing about it.
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mikez · Joined: 14 Mar 2005 Posts: 75

I'll be there.

-MZ

**mtamada** · Joined: 28 Jan 2005 Posts: 377

Okay, I got my airline and hotel reservation -- missed the online registration deadline, so I'll register onsite.

I see they're providing lunch this year, that raises the convenience factor hugely (although at the last conference, I was able to race down to Toscanini's for the best ice cream in the country during the lunch break).

Eli W · Joined: 01 Feb 2005 Posts: 402

I just got my plane ticket so I'll see everybody there.

NickS · Joined: 30 Dec 2004 Posts: 384

Ed Küpfer · Joined: 30 Dec 2004 Posts: 785 Location: Toronto

I'll be driving through the night to be there, just like a Springsteen song. Hope to see yall.
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**mtamada** · Joined: 28 Jan 2005 Posts: 377