APBRmetrics

**Jon** **Nichols** · Joined: 18 Aug 2005 Posts: 370

Hello all,

I just wanted to let everyone know that I updated my stat called Composite Score. For those who don't know, I basically just combine a few advanced stats (Offensive/Defensive Rating, Plus-Minus, PER, Counterpart PER) and come up with a rating for every player. I used to adjust for playing time against starters using a formula developed on this board, but I recently decided not to include that adjustment anymore. Weighting the formula required some subjectivity, and I didn't want that.

Anyways, to see the numbers (along with the PAC data I mentioned here), go to:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pLY8lHD0dnavv7o39ZkGTDA

I'm curious to read everyone's thoughts.

-Jon Nichols

erivera7 · Joined: 19 Jan 2009 Posts: 185 Location: Chicago, IL

Great stuff as always Jon. Just curious, when will your next Composite Score update be? Obviously you just updated it, but I just wanted to get an idea of the next one for future reference. Thanks.
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@erivera7
I cover the Orlando Magic - Magic Basketball

**Jon** **Nichols** · Joined: 18 Aug 2005 Posts: 370

Probably not until the end of the season.

Mountain · Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Posts: 1527

Wouldn't load for me but that may be about my old computer.

Is signing in required or can that be skipped? (this is not the problem with loading as I did sign in, just asking in addition for convenience)

erivera7 · Joined: 19 Jan 2009 Posts: 185 Location: Chicago, IL

**Jon** **Nichols** · Joined: 18 Aug 2005 Posts: 370

Mountain · Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Posts: 1527

Sure is required to sign in for me- link takes me to a sign in screen- but whatever, no big deal. Third try I see the data. Thanks.

Mike G · Posted: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:10 am Post subject: Re: Composite Score update

**Jon** **Nichols** · Joined: 18 Aug 2005 Posts: 370

**Jon** **Nichols** · Joined: 18 Aug 2005 Posts: 370

Update: I added a column called "Value Rating %" to my Google docs Composite Score page. It's just a simple measure of a player's "value" based on his Composite Score and salary.

Mountain · Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Posts: 1527

By Value Rating % Pat Riley got the best value in the league (Jamario Moon) offset by the worst (Jermaine O'Neal). I am curious what value the real GMs will place on Moon this summer.

J Crawford the 3rd worst value but Al Harrington 13th worst.

Wilcox a very low value giveaway by this.

Diop appealed to Larry Brown but was 10th worst on this value rank.

B Davis a very low value but surprisingly so is Caron Butler due to defense

Iverson 12th worst value, Billups a bit above average on value.

Rose and Mayo in bottom 30% on value even on rookie scale.

Bosh a below average value. But so are a number of other big names. Value is isn't the end goal of every player decision of course. But those breaks from value decision-making have their impact on many teams not able to spend completely freely.

Noah in the top 40 values. Presti "giveaway" Delonte West in top 20. Sessions 3rd best.

Battier 97th.

**Jon** **Nichols** · Joined: 18 Aug 2005 Posts: 370

I've added one more new statistic, called Composite Score Wins. Basically it determines a player's percentage of the team's total Composite Score production, and assigns the player that same percentage of the team's 82-game win total pace based on expected winning percentage.

It's the last column of this page:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pLY8lHD0dnavv7o39ZkGTDA

For a full explanation of Composite Score Wins, go to:

http://basketball-statistics.com/explanationofcompositescorewins.html

-Jon Nichols

erivera7 · Joined: 19 Jan 2009 Posts: 185 Location: Chicago, IL

Nice. I really like the Value Rating % you came up with Jon. Scrolling down to see Rashard Lewis' Value Rating % at 47% seems about right. Obviously it's common knowledge that GM Otis Smith overpaid for Lewis, but this metric paints a picture of Lewis' value in correlation to his contract. Good stuff.

Quick question, is there any noticeable difference with your Composite Score Wins, as opposed to Win Shares, etc.? Looking at the numbers, at least when I'm looking at the Orlando Magic, there doesn't seem to be much of a difference between either statistic. I noticed that the CSW are a bit higher than the WS. Just curious, that's all.
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@erivera7
I cover the Orlando Magic - Magic Basketball

**Jon** **Nichols** · Joined: 18 Aug 2005 Posts: 370

Well, CSW will definitely look higher than some of the other ones because I only split credit for a team's success among players that have enough minutes to qualify (>350 at this point). That's not perfect, but due to the limitations of Composite Score it's the best I can do...

As for similarities between CSW and other stats, the only real thing would be the fact that Composite Score is 1/6 made up of ORtg and 1/6 made up of DRtg, which are included in some similar metrics (pardon me if I'm mistaken). Besides that, it's pretty independent. It's nice to know it tends to agree with some of those other great stats out there though...

erivera7 · Joined: 19 Jan 2009 Posts: 185 Location: Chicago, IL

Makes sense. Yeah, it's good that your statistic doesn't really veer off in a different tangent, when compared to Win Shares, etc.

One thing, as I'm looking through you Value Rating %, it's seems as though players with maximum contracts seem to have an inherent disadvantage (maybe I'm wrong) when determining their value. For instance, Dwight Howard's rating % is 64%, LeBron James' rating % is 62%, Dwyane Wade's rating % is 59%, etc.

Is that by design? Or what are your thoughts on that, Jon?

I found that trend interesting as I browsed through the numbers. Does that mean those players don't deserve to have maximum contracts (meaning, are they actually overpaid), with regards to their production?
_________________
@erivera7
I cover the Orlando Magic - Magic Basketball