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Recalculating Advanced Stats Using Play-by-Play Data
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gabefarkas



Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1305
Location: Durham, NC
PostPosted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Jon Nichols wrote:
josean.martinez@upct.es wrote:
Thank you so much Jon for this great stuff.

I have one dumb question. For example, for usage percentage, if I want to compute the percentage of plays used by a player in each game of the season, I could compute it dividing the plays of each game by the usage percentage. Correct?


I'm not totally sure what you're asking, but if you're asking how to estimate the number of plays a player was involved in on a game-by-game basis, you would multiply the usage rate times the fraction of minutes he was in the game times the team's pace. That would just be an estimation, though.
If you're running a counter of the number of possessions in a game, and you know when a player goes in and out, and you can identify when a player "used" a possession, then it seems pretty simple, no?
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gabefarkas



Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1305
Location: Durham, NC
PostPosted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 8:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Jon Nichols wrote:
As for the true shot percentage, I still used the .44 estimator for free throws. I did this because I had a hard time estimating possessions that ended in free throws, because you can't simply count shooting fouls. There probably is a way to count actual possessions taking free throws into account, but this was my first go at this and I wasn't sure exactly how. Perhaps someone else could shed some light on that.
Depends on what program you're using to compile and count everything, and how you're doing it. If you can flag possessions where a FGA was taken (and/or made), and then you can also flag possessions where FTA were taken, you might be able to identify them, no?
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Jon Nichols



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 369
PostPosted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
gabefarkas wrote:
Jon Nichols wrote:
josean.martinez@upct.es wrote:
Thank you so much Jon for this great stuff.

I have one dumb question. For example, for usage percentage, if I want to compute the percentage of plays used by a player in each game of the season, I could compute it dividing the plays of each game by the usage percentage. Correct?


I'm not totally sure what you're asking, but if you're asking how to estimate the number of plays a player was involved in on a game-by-game basis, you would multiply the usage rate times the fraction of minutes he was in the game times the team's pace. That would just be an estimation, though.
If you're running a counter of the number of possessions in a game, and you know when a player goes in and out, and you can identify when a player "used" a possession, then it seems pretty simple, no?


Yes. I wasn't sure if he meant an average per game, or a total for each game. Either way, I suppose it's pretty easy.
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Jon Nichols



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 369
PostPosted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 8:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
gabefarkas wrote:
Jon Nichols wrote:
As for the true shot percentage, I still used the .44 estimator for free throws. I did this because I had a hard time estimating possessions that ended in free throws, because you can't simply count shooting fouls. There probably is a way to count actual possessions taking free throws into account, but this was my first go at this and I wasn't sure exactly how. Perhaps someone else could shed some light on that.
Depends on what program you're using to compile and count everything, and how you're doing it. If you can flag possessions where a FGA was taken (and/or made), and then you can also flag possessions where FTA were taken, you might be able to identify them, no?


Thanks, Gabe. I figured out a pretty easy way to do it using Ryan's play-by-play. I'm going to update it soon.
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Jon Nichols



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 369
PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 10:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Updated numbers, including updated Steal Rates and Usage Rates, based on new calculations of possessions:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AvNKNGJ_AHijdEVHZXpaeGl5Q1ZVZVF0WVd3Ri1IR1E&hl=en
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Jon Nichols



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 369
PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 10:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Discussing the correlation between the estimated stats and the PBP versions, factoring in the updates I made:

http://bit.ly/tlK4O
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Jose A. Martínez



Joined: 19 Jul 2009
Posts: 72
PostPosted: Thu Nov 19, 2009 3:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
If you're running a counter of the number of possessions in a game, and you know when a player goes in and out, and you can identify when a player "used" a possession, then it seems pretty simple, no?


Thanks Ed and Gabe
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Jose A. Martínez
http://www.upct.es/~beside/jose
http://basket-research.blogspot.com
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