APBRmetrics

GB · Joined: 29 Jun 2005 Posts: 4

My name is GB...I'm a longtime hoops junkie. I'll mostly be a lurker and leamer.

Great board. I've read almost all the way through it and the 'Moneyball' articles about the Sonics...

bballfan72031 · Joined: 13 Feb 2005 Posts: 54

What the hey, I'll make a post here.

I'm a 15 year old kid living in Portland, Oregon, who just lives for basketball. For quite a long time now, I've been a lot more interested in the managing parts of basketball than playing competitively (creating trades is the most fun thing in the world for me).

I've seen a lot of the value in statistics over the years, and so I love learning more about them. And in the fact that I've always kinda liked numbers and patterns, and statistics seem really cool to me. I've been lurking here for....I dunno....has it been a couple of years? I'm not really sure. Started reading the posts at the old yahoo site (and I must say, I'm very happy with the shift to the message board). I was first linked to this site over at Hoopsworld.

Anyway....you won't see me logged on much because I only log on to post, but I'm still here lurking as a guest a lot of the time. I don't expect to add much, if at all, to the board, as I just don't know that much (particularly with the mathematics....I'm often lost when reading some of the posts here). But I really enjoy reading everything everyone has to say here, and I appreciate that you all allow me to listen and learn from ya.

Awesome site! Keep it up.

Furps · Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 2 Location: Washington, DC

I am just getting started, and have truly enjoyed reading everyone's posts.

I'm particularly interested in a basketball equivalent of Bill James' pythagorean projections. Does this community post projections using a basketball version of runs scored & runs allowed before the season? Does anyone? Thanks.

kjb · Joined: 03 Jan 2005 Posts: 865 Location: Washington, DC

HoopStudies · Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2005 4:42 pm Post subject: Re: Great to be here...

Kevin Pelton · Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2005 11:31 pm Post subject: Re: Great to be here...

Furps · Joined: 25 Jul 2005 Posts: 2 Location: Washington, DC

Ed Küpfer · Joined: 30 Dec 2004 Posts: 787 Location: Toronto

capnhistory · Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2005 9:46 am Post subject: Salutations

I'm a recent convert to basketball in general, so I'm still developing my knowledge of the league's history and the technical aspects of the game. I've become fascinated with using the statistics to find deeper truths about teams, leagues and players. I'm still finishing Dean's book, and so far I love it. I'm working on writing a program for my TI-83 calculator that can caclulate advanced stats from the basic numbers. It won't be able to do whata sophisticated computer program could, but I find it really helpful, for quick studies of boxscores or single season numbers. I still have some kinks to work out, but I may share it with you if anyone's interested. (It strikes me that not many people may be walking around with TI-83's, but I think it's a wonderful tool.)
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Throw it down big man!
More expansive basketball babble at a slower pace The Captain of History

mathayus · Joined: 15 Aug 2005 Posts: 212

Hello all,

I am a long time basketball fan and numbers geek who just dove into the online basketball community this last season and and just found out about this forum recently. I've been pretty active over at RealGM for the past 6 months or so. I am excited to get involved with those who are actually on the frontier of this stuff.

As for my background, well I am a 27-yeard old doctoral student of artificial intelligence in California. Strong at math, and I've always loved "statistics" as I've known it, but I really don't have any background in the science of statistics worth mentioning.

My own independent exploration into quantifying basketball are limited and primitive, but I'll share them here for reference anyway. During the 03-04 season I began using old-school statistics to try to come up with a rating for how valuable a player is. A good experience, but a frustrating one. Two players in particular forced me to conclude that old school stats just weren't enough: Kirilenko and Nash. I'm sure you can guess what my problems were just by knowing what these players bring to the floor. So, it has been exciting for me to discover the new stats that are available online which address areas that weren't well represented before, and it's also great to find a place like this and actually see debates about this stuff.

I also have also been developing and refining a formula to estimate Hall of Fame worthiness. Which is an interesting process, although also rather frustrating for the basic reason that it's hard to gather complete statistics for players who are actually old enough to be in the Hall of Fame. Actually, if you have any suggestions for gathering data, please let me know.

Thanks,
Matt

MDC · Joined: 11 Jun 2005 Posts: 36

Hello everyone, my name is Nicholas Hunt. I'm transferring to UC San Diego this fall as a major in Computer Science. I have a passion for basketball and videogames. I have devoured the work of the people on this forum, including Dean's book and Hollinger's books. I'm really interested in the adjusted +/- stuff that Dan has been doing and the defensive game charting work that Dean promotes, 82games is attempting, and Kevin Broom has wrriten about. My biggest pet peeve is the prevailence of flawed measures used by professional 'analysts' in the media, like points allowed per game and FG%. I haven't taken my statistical courses yet, nor have I used Excel enough, but I soon hope to be able to contribute research of my own. My home team is the Warriors (which has been brutal).

Nick

**John** **Hollinger** · Joined: 14 Feb 2005 Posts: 175

Hey everyone, sorry it took me so long to stopy by the new place but I love what you've done with it.

I noticed Dean's comment on the Pythagorean method and I wanted to note that I've converted to using the "Pythagorean 16.5" method. The "2.75" method I had been using worked well for average teams but for the very worst and very best it broke down, and unfortunately those are the teams that we tend to study the most. This year's Pro Basketball Forecast makes the switch.

John

yakustk · Joined: 16 Sep 2005 Posts: 15

John, just got your 04/05 book and am looking forward to the next one...any idea when it is going to be released?

I just joined tonight after lurking a bit...great stuff all around. I've enjoyed doing research into baseball and want to learn some basketball as well. Are NBA boxscores available in Excel like baseball stats are at retrosheet.org?

**John** **Hollinger** · Joined: 14 Feb 2005 Posts: 175

The book should be out within the next two weeks, so hopefully everybody has it in their hands soon.

John

tmorgan · Joined: 30 Sep 2005 Posts: 2 Location: Lexington, KY

Just joined. I'm a teacher by trade, and a baseball fan at heart (hope that's not sacrilege here), but basketball is a clear #2. I'm a native Michigander and a Pistons diehard, but I've enjoyed reading the information here enough to become a closet Sonics fan. Guess that's all... I just felt a little dirty lurking, so I registered.