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Ilardi
Joined: 15 May 2008
Posts: 265
Location: Lawrence, KS
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 Posted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 11:16 am Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | | Quote: | | ...As for Warrick . . . he was a poor defender... turnover prone, a weak passer, and a poor offensive rebounder (for a 4), etc. |
Warrick's 2008 ORb% was 7.8; his TO% was 10.0. Both are career bests and
better than any Cardinal's ever posted.
Of 93 forwards who played 1500 minutes last year, Warrick was 35th in ORb% ,and 22nd in TO%.
| Quote: |
Give that sort of player 2000 minutes, and it's enough to singlehandedly add 10-15 extra losses a year!
... if you replaced Warrick with a league-average player, his team would do roughly 10 points per game better on net margin (assuming he played the whole game). |
This could be misleading. We aren't talking about an elite team, but about a conference doormat team. There were just 3 Grizz players who went over 600 minutes with positive +/- . 'Average NBA players' aren't readily available.
Now if you put Warrick on the Celtics and gave him 2000 of Garnett and Pierce's minutes, that team would win fewer games. I don't know about 10 to 15. I doubt he'd 'add losses' to the (15-67) Miami Heat. |
Mike,
In response:
1) Thanks for pointing out Warrick's improved offensive rebounding and turnover ratios last season; I had been referring to his performance in 05-07, but it's a point well taken (looking back, his offensive rebounding was still reasonably average for a PF even in prior seasons, though his turnovers were more of an issue). He's still had a stunningly deleterious impact from an adjusted plus-minus standpoint for the past 3 seasons, but this seems attributable to erratic defense and low basketball iq on offense more than anything else.
2) As for the alleged rarity of 'average NBA players' - while that may be true for weak teams like the Grizzlies, roughly half of all NBA players logging >388 minutes last season were at least 'average' - i.e., they had adjusted plus-minus estimates of 0.0 or better.
3) Regarding the number of losses Warrick would add to a team . . . I was simply calculating Pythagorean wins for the Grizzlies based on Warrick's estimated -10.93 pts/100 possessions, pro-rated for 2000 minutes played (if substituted for with someone at 0.0 pts/100 possessions). Given that the relationship between team point differential and wins/losses is (approximately) an inverse exponential function, it's not likely that replacing a league-average Miami player from last season (closest = Dorrell Wright?) with Warrick would have added a comparable number of losses, since Miami already had 67 losses - putting them well into the asymptotic portion of the curve (i.e., at that point, lowering the point differential does very little to add more losses).
However, if you accept the underlying premises of the adjusted plus-minus analysis, it should be clear that replacing 2000 of Kevin Garnett's minutes with Warrick minutes would have cost the Celtics (easily) 10+ wins last year. (For a piece of corroborating evidence, consider Garnett's central role in the Celts' historic 42-win turnaround from the previous season.) |
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Harold Almonte
Joined: 04 Aug 2006
Posts: 616
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| Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:58 am Post subject: |
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| Sorry for my ignorance about +/-. Why D. Wright's backup collinearity effect with regard to Warrick and team's loses, is different than Garnett's, given he would be backing up the same amount of minutes to both? Does it mean that Warrick as a KG's replacement, would boost KG's adj+/- higher than as a D. Wright's backup? |
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