APBRmetrics

erivera7 · Joined: 19 Jan 2009 Posts: 178 Location: Chicago, IL

The fact Kevin Garnett has only garnered one Most Valuable Player award in his playing career is laughable.
_________________
@erivera7
I cover the Orlando Magic - Magic Basketball

Mike G · Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2009 6:02 pm Post subject:

Shaq, Olajuwon, and Robinson only got one.
_________________
`
36% of all statistics are wrong

DSMok1 · Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2009 8:38 am Post subject:

Ilardi:

You said at the beginning of this thread that you compiled the APM data for 6 years, with help from Beech and Aaron B. Is that data available to the public? I've had a bit of trouble finding each year's data, complete with the standard error term (which is critical). Can you provide the data, or link to the sources where you got it?

Thanks!

**Ilardi** · Joined: 15 May 2008 Posts: 263 Location: Lawrence, KS

DSMok1 · Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2009 12:43 pm Post subject:

**Ilardi** · Joined: 15 May 2008 Posts: 263 Location: Lawrence, KS

Ah, right. I'm actually hoping to publish those numbers in article form some time in the next month or so . . . still have to run a few of the seasons and compile everything in a single spreadsheet. I'll keep you posted, though.

Italian Stallion · Joined: 04 Mar 2009 Posts: 112

First off, even though a 6 year study doesn't take yearly changes in form due to age/experience into account and also doesn't consider injury etc.... I think it does give a great look a most players that can them be subjectively altered to account for those things.

Thanks so much for posting this info.

I have one question.

Has anyone tried to take this information and then back into a system that would weight the various individual stats like scoring, rebounds, blocks, steals TS% etc.... and produce these +/- stats?

There are lots of debates about the proper weighting of various factors and this might be a great way of taking another look at it.

DJE09 · Joined: 05 May 2009 Posts: 148

Do you mean a Statistical +/-?

Crow · Joined: 20 Jan 2009 Posts: 806

Neil Paine has picked up the torch for keeping statistical +/- data available and improving it.

Check for posts here or at the blog at basketball-reference.com

I've occasionally made the pitch for keeping Dan Rosenbaum's overall +/- (combining adjusted and statistical) alive in some form. With Steve Ilardi's advancement in reducing noise I think adjusted could grow to being a relatively equal partner with statistical instead of the 15-20% weight tail that Dan made it in the original overall +/- immediately after producing pure adjusted. Or you can let it do the whole job if you want and are confident enough in it.

Off and on I've also pitched the related idea of giving the main actor or main 2 actors on a a play a good share of the credit or blame for offense and for defense (half to 2/3rds) directly using standard linear weights or statistical +/- regression derived weights and then dividing the rest of the credit equally among the non=main actors of the play to try to stay faithful to who actually had the most opportunity and responsibility for impact. But you could also perhaps restrict the direct credit operation to say half the value (or whatever share you want to give this direct credit operation) based on the last and generally "most important" action in the specific play and let adjusted "find" the split for the rest as it will from among everyone instead of letting it divide the full amount based on the season level data. But there doesn't seem to be much other interest in this general pursuit or this specific integrated approach.