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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3612
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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 Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 2:52 pm Post subject: 2010 Predictions |
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Not necessarily a final pass, as some players may still move, but I will open the bidding.
| Code: | West East
Por 61.0 Cle 67.0
SAS 58.1 Orl 61.7
Uta 57.8 Bos 56.3
LAL 55.3 Det 43.2
NOH 48.8 Atl 42.8
Dal 46.2 Tor 39.5
Den 44.6 Was 37.9
Mem 42.5 Mia 37.2
Min 36.1 Ind 36.8
Okl 35.2 Chi 36.4
Phx 33.9 Phl 34.2
GSW 33.1 Cha 30.1
Hou 31.9 NYK 26.7
LAC 26.5 NJN 24.5
Sac 22.9 Mil 21.6
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The predictions are highly dependent on the minutes players are expected to get. So even without further player deployments, these expected-wins could change. They're based on eWins and are very crudely aging-adjusted.
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Last edited by Mike G on Thu Sep 10, 2009 3:34 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Ilardi
Joined: 15 May 2008
Posts: 265
Location: Lawrence, KS
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| Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 3:11 pm Post subject: Re: 2010 Predictions |
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Bold predictions. If you lived in Vegas, you could probably find some favorable odds on "Detroit finishes 4th (or higher) in the East" and "Lakers finish 4th (or lower) in the West". I suspect many of us would be more than a little surprised if either forecast came to pass . . . but that's part of what makes prediction so much fun.
Last edited by Ilardi on Thu Sep 10, 2009 3:42 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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erivera7
Joined: 19 Jan 2009
Posts: 185
Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 3:42 pm Post subject: |
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Interesting. There's seems to be a consensus developing, given what Neil posted with his statistical plus/minus projections, and what you shared Mike - being that Portland is predicted to finish higher than Los Angeles, and that Cleveland is once again the team to beat. Certainly goes against the grain with the mainstream media (always welcome).
Detroit finishing 4th in the East doesn't seem outlandish, really, given the wide gap in the Big Three (Boston, Cleveland, Orlando) and Everyone Else.
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I cover the Orlando Magic - Magic Basketball |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3612
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 3:45 pm Post subject: |
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It's not bold, it's blind. Upon looking, I see LAL are the 4th-oldest team, so they'll not likely be quite as good as last year's numbers suggest. Fisher's on borrowed time, so the team is even more Kobe-dependent than you might think.
The Pistons have Hamilton-Gordon-Stuckey at guard, and they're all good. Bynum, too, may bust out. Prince is good, and Charlie V. Among Wilcox, Kwame, Maxiell, or one of the new guys, someone will step up.
Somehow -- I haven't systematically looked at it -- the teams of the East only average 40 wins in this prediction, reversing the recent trend.
Yes, it's for fun, and fun it is. Will the Grizzlies really win >40 ?
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3612
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 3:54 pm Post subject: |
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Before age-adjustment, I have LA and Por dead even. Because the Blazers' average player-minute is about 2.7 years younger, my ridiculously simple formula has them gaining 5.6 wins.
This does not, of course, mean that younger players outplay their older counterparts. But that a younger team should improve their numbers, relative to an older one.
Andre Miller (given 2200 minutes) brings 6.3 eWins to the Blazers. And leaves a gaping hole in Philly, as they have not found anyone to fill it. Royal Ivey?
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Ilardi
Joined: 15 May 2008
Posts: 265
Location: Lawrence, KS
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| Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 4:00 pm Post subject: |
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| erivera7 wrote: | Interesting. There's seems to be a consensus developing, given what Neil posted with his statistical plus/minus projections, and what you shared Mike - being that Portland is predicted to finish higher than Los Angeles, and that Cleveland is once again the team to beat. Certainly goes against the grain with the mainstream media (always welcome).
Detroit finishing 4th in the East doesn't seem outlandish, really, given the wide gap in the Big Three (Boston, Cleveland, Orlando) and Everyone Else. |
FWIW: based on APM, I have Portland finishing far behind LA in the West and Detroit as a lottery team in the East. (Still tweaking final numbers - much depends on minutes played forecast - but will try to make available before opening day.) |
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Ilardi
Joined: 15 May 2008
Posts: 265
Location: Lawrence, KS
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| Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 4:04 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: | | Yes, it's for fun, and fun it is. Will the Grizzlies really win >40 ? |
If I were an oddsmaker, I'd give at least 5:1 against it (might even give 10:1). |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3612
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 4:46 pm Post subject: |
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Last year, Mem won 24, Pyth of 26.6 . They add Iverson, Zach, and Thabeet to a bunch of guys learning to play.
To win another 18 games (42), they just need to be 15 games better. Does not seem outlandish to me.
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jsill
Joined: 19 Aug 2009
Posts: 73
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| Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 4:54 pm Post subject: |
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I need to read up on eWins, so maybe I should know this already, but how does your system account for rookies? E.g., how is the addition of Blake Griffin accounted for?
If I put down my calculator and slide rule and go with a gut prediction, then I figure the Clippers for 35 wins or more if they stay reasonably healthy and Griffin comes close to meeting expectations. |
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Ryan J. Parker
Joined: 23 Mar 2007
Posts: 711
Location: Raleigh, NC
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| Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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Anyone have a link to last year's results? I remember seeing an interesting graph from someone that I think had Bill Simmons as the best? Interesting to see how people did last year in summary fashion.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3612
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 7:27 pm Post subject: |
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| jsill wrote: | | ... I figure the Clippers for 35 wins or more if they stay reasonably healthy and Griffin comes close to meeting expectations. |
Yes, 2 of 2 such qualifiers makes for an above-average season in Clipperland.
I assigned all rookies .80 eW/484 min rates (80% of average), and figured being a Clipper makes him an average rookie.
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erivera7
Joined: 19 Jan 2009
Posts: 185
Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 7:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Ilardi wrote: | | FWIW: based on APM, I have Portland finishing far behind LA in the West and Detroit as a lottery team in the East. (Still tweaking final numbers - much depends on minutes played forecast - but will try to make available before opening day.) |
Ah, touche. Didn't realize that you have the Lakers projected ahead of the Blazers and the Pistons in lotto land.
I think we can all agree, then, that the predictions for the Blazers, Lakers, and Pistons will be volatile, considering some of the unknown factors attached to each team.
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I cover the Orlando Magic - Magic Basketball |
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: Thu Sep 10, 2009 8:57 pm Post subject: Re: 2010 Predictions |
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| Mike G wrote: | Not necessarily a final pass, as some players may still move, but I will open the bidding.
| Code: | West East
Por 61.0 Cle 67.0
SAS 58.1 Orl 61.7
Uta 57.8 Bos 56.3
LAL 55.3 Det 43.2
NOH 48.8 Atl 42.8
Dal 46.2 Tor 39.5
Den 44.6 Was 37.9
Mem 42.5 Mia 37.2
Min 36.1 Ind 36.8
Okl 35.2 Chi 36.4
Phx 33.9 Phl 34.2
GSW 33.1 Cha 30.1
Hou 31.9 NYK 26.7
LAC 26.5 NJN 24.5
Sac 22.9 Mil 21.6
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The predictions are highly dependent on the minutes players are expected to get. So even without further player deployments, these expected-wins could change. They're based on eWins and are very crudely aging-adjusted. |
And they even add up to 1230 wins, which is what they should. Color me impressed. |
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Crow
Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 821
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| Posted: Fri Sep 11, 2009 2:30 am Post subject: |
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| Ryan J. Parker wrote: | | Anyone have a link to last year's results? I remember seeing an interesting graph from someone that I think had Bill Simmons as the best? Interesting to see how people did last year in summary fashion. |
viewtopic.php?t=1885&start=150
See Mike's post for the smaller contest at this board.
I have the information about a wider contest of projections and the results but I think I'll pass over a full display of how it turned out for all 16 listed methods and versions of methods in part because it is a big table and not all projections added to 1230 games.
I'll just say that the top predictors were Simmons & Vegas, then a version of Accuscore then Neil Paine then John Hollinger.
And the lowest scores were several versions of Wins Produced prepared by another party, not the metric author himself. But still that was a regular season prediction low using that metric itself compared to his playoff series prediction win using point differential and perhaps some judgment but no mention of Wins Produced. One version of Wins Produced with a three year weighted average of productivity did better than average though.
Last edited by Crow on Fri Sep 11, 2009 8:46 pm; edited 5 times in total |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3612
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Fri Sep 11, 2009 6:50 am Post subject: Re: 2010 Predictions |
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| gabefarkas wrote: | ..
And they even add up to 1230 wins, which is what they should. Color me impressed. |
Yes, well they added up to some 43.46 wins per team, until I adjusted. Since I was contemplating an aging-factor anyway, I killed 2 birds with one stone. Multiplying everyone's expected wins by (25.58/age) fixed it (avg W = 41).
It's not accurate to say everyone over age 26 is in decline, but that's the single number that fixed the total wins. The explanation for a high initial estimate of wins is that the coach in me gives more minutes to more-productive players.
I held players to 2800 minutes at most, and only a few at this level. For several teams, it's a real challenge to distribute minutes: whether to avoid thousands of scrub minutes, or to give decent minutes to all deserving players.
Another adjustment I swear (every year) I'll do next year is Team Historic Overachievement Factor. The Lakers, for example, last season won 4 games more than their point-differential would expect. This is about typical for them, when they are good, over the last 30 or so years.
Anyone have a table of such that you'd share?
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