APBRmetrics

Mike G · Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 7:34 am Post subject:

The problem with this Rockets team is that so many key players have a history of missing games. Here's what they've averaged (games) over the last 4 years: McGrady 65, Yao 60, Artest 48. Yes, that includes Ron's suspended 2005; since then, he's averaged 61.

If Deepak's estimates of 30-34 mpg for these guys (and Alston) are multiplied by 82 games each, then we have a very rosy estimate for the team's success. Expecting 2700+ minutes from each? -- Yao's never done it, Artest once (2004), McGrady not in 3 years.

Here's a table, with 3 different allotments of minutes, and eW per player, based on last year's eW/min.
- The first is that provided by deepak.
- The next (under 'eWins1') uses his suggested MPG, and 4-year average games played; then to make up minutes, more are granted to guys off the bench (esp. to Hayes and Head, also returning Battier to full-time status.)
- 'eWins2' continues with my guess at games available, giving max minutes to the star players. As if I were coaching.

Some of those 'G?' aren't averages, but true guesses.

Kevin Pelton · Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 11:23 pm Post subject: Re: Who ya gonna believe...

Statman · Joined: 20 Feb 2005 Posts: 242 Location: Arlington, Texas

back2newbelf · Joined: 21 Jun 2005 Posts: 275

my 2 cents:

from the numbers i posted in a different thread, which now has data from the last 2 seasons, it doesn't look like Houston is worse when one of their "stars" is missing. I think the whole team is more about bench, coach, role players than most people think.

That said, on one side i don't think they will all be healthy, but that won't matter. On the other side it probably means that players, who add alot to other teams, don't add much for Houston because the team is very balanced and their strength lies somewhere else than pure individual skill of single players.

I think a differential of 6.5 to 8 seems realistic. That's... i don't know...59 wins in the West?

Kevin Pelton · Posted: Mon Aug 04, 2008 7:10 pm Post subject:

cherokee_ACB · Joined: 22 Mar 2006 Posts: 157

While regular season wins are important by themselves, play-offs surely are a biggest concern for Houston, given recent history. So, for me, the key questions are whether the Rockets are the strongest team in the West (and in the league) when all their players are healthy, and if they can win it all with either Yao, T-Mac or Artest missing. My answer to both questions is 'Yes'*, which makes the move a pretty good one for Houston.

*It's a qualified 'yes'. The Championship odds I give them in each case are roughly 25% and 12%.

holymoly · Joined: 30 Jul 2005 Posts: 63

From dberri;

"As I noted a couple of days ago, the addition of Artest does not dramatically improve Houston. And I would add, as WP48 indicates, this does not give the Rockets one of the top trios in the league. If we expanded our coverage to all NBA teams, we would not see the new Houston trio in the top ten. "

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/07/31/artest-the-savior/

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/08/03/a-top-trio-in-houston/
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back2newbelf · Joined: 21 Jun 2005 Posts: 275

schtevie · Joined: 18 Apr 2005 Posts: 413

Reading the lines and between the lines, two thoughts occur. First, most folks really aren't persuaded of the value of Adj.+/- and second, and more importantly for this conversation, folks don't believe that the Rockets are either. I would argue that the latter view is simply untenable.

Deepak's minutes allocation, for example, gives but three per game to Hayes. If anyone wants to offer that as a betting line, I will take the over, no matter what the odds.

Donning the Adj.+/- Helm of Omniscience, the off-season actions of the Rockets are perfectly straightforward. They have gotten rid of all their negative Adj.+/- players from last year, except for Brooks and Ming (expecting and hoping that each will get or return, respectively, to form). Then they have added Barry and Artest, both of whom show past years of very strong Adj.+/- numbers, with the latter still being very much a star.

From this perspective, the spy that told Hollinger that Artest is slated for PF minutes is clearly playing a double game. Things may change; Tracy McGrady may return to form, but if not, I'll bet that Artest's minutes will come largely at his expense.

Running the Adj.+/- numbers, you see that by merely prorating the minutes of the Rockets players remaining from last year's roster, the team would improve from 4.7 per game to 6+. Such an addition by subtraction puts the Rockets into NBA finalist land. The jump to truly elite status however comes by giving Artest (and other productive players more) minutes, and these need to come at the expense of the mediocre to realize gains. And last year, McGrady and Ming exemplified mediocrity (assuming the estimates were precise, of course).

**Ilardi** · Joined: 15 May 2008 Posts: 265 Location: Lawrence, KS

gabefarkas · Joined: 31 Dec 2004 Posts: 1313 Location: Durham, NC

schtevie · Joined: 18 Apr 2005 Posts: 413

Gabe,

The simple reason you cite for potentially declining APM is not really relevant, as I was obliged to decrease MPG by about 5%. However, I did make an ass out of u and me in as much as I assumed that each player would be healthy for 82 games. Given this, how would you have me alter my estimate? The only point I was trying to make was that as a benchmark, the Rockets improved themselves in APMworld independent of Artest and Barry.

As for the multiplicity of conversations related to APM, the more the better, and you can assume the role of cat herder if you wish. My marginal utility on the general topic remains distinctly positive.

Finally as for the imprecision of the estimate of Ming and McGrady, a quick point that may not have been made elsewhere. It seems to me that the imprecision of the joint estimate of the contribution of Ming and McGrady should be less than for each alone. Similarly, there is greater precision still in the collective performance of the benchmark roster referred to above. And finally, it seems to me that there is also identifying information in the downward trend of their recent year's performance (especially in combination with the player ages) to suggest that last year these former stars had indeed faded.

deepak · Joined: 26 Apr 2006 Posts: 665

gabefarkas · Joined: 31 Dec 2004 Posts: 1313 Location: Durham, NC