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3FG% from College to NBA

 
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Joe



Joined: 27 Sep 2009
Posts: 94
Location: Long Island, NY

PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 1:25 pm    Post subject: 3FG% from College to NBA Reply with quote

Has anyone ever done studies tracking players going from NCAA to NBA to see what expected dropoff we should see in 3FG% (due to length of line and level of competition)? I know there are a ton of potential problems with measuring this kind of study, but I'm curious if anyone has tried tackling it before, and what the results were.

If anyone is interested in doing such a thing, it'd be really interesting to see the numbers as a whole, but also broken up by position and by usage.
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Jon Nichols



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 370

PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 2:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I did some research a while back on the correlation between various college stats and NBA stats. The article is here:

http://basketball-statistics.com/howdoncaastatisticstranslatetothenba.html

The slope isn't there, but with NBA 3PT% as the y variable and NCAA 3PT% as the x, the slope is 0.7174.

Finding good historical college stats was difficult, so the data set wasn't big enough to be broken down by position and expect accurate results.
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Joe



Joined: 27 Sep 2009
Posts: 94
Location: Long Island, NY

PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How many seasons of data did you have?
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Jon Nichols



Joined: 18 Aug 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 3:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Joe wrote:
How many seasons of data did you have?


I don't remember for sure. It went pretty far back (10 or 15 years), but the trouble was finding the college data on Basketball-Reference.com. It was a relatively small sample from a large time frame.
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Ryan J. Parker



Joined: 23 Mar 2007
Posts: 711
Location: Raleigh, NC

PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 4:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Funny you post this because DSMok1 recently inspired me to acquire some college stats for doing this type of analysis. The first thing I'm interested in is trying to see what sort of relationship exists between usage and 3FG%. Once i do that, I certainly want to see how that translates to the NBA.
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Joe



Joined: 27 Sep 2009
Posts: 94
Location: Long Island, NY

PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ryan J. Parker wrote:
Funny you post this because DSMok1 recently inspired me to acquire some college stats for doing this type of analysis. The first thing I'm interested in is trying to see what sort of relationship exists between usage and 3FG%. Once i do that, I certainly want to see how that translates to the NBA.


Very much looking forward to it. Keep us updated.
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gabefarkas



Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC

PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I looked at it a long time ago, among a whole bunch of other NCAA/NBA stats (all per-minute, IIRC).

There was definitely a correlation with 3p%, but a better one with 3PA/min. Neither were as strong as some of the rebounding numbers (for example).
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Ryan J. Parker



Joined: 23 Mar 2007
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Location: Raleigh, NC

PostPosted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 1:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This doesn't tell you what to expect from those players that make it to the NBA, but here are some estimates on the relationship between experience and usage on college 3FG%:

http://www.basketballgeek.com/2009/12/29/college-basketball-rating-individual-3fg/
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