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Joe
Joined: 27 Sep 2009
Posts: 94
Location: Long Island, NY
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 Posted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 1:25 pm Post subject: 3FG% from College to NBA |
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Has anyone ever done studies tracking players going from NCAA to NBA to see what expected dropoff we should see in 3FG% (due to length of line and level of competition)? I know there are a ton of potential problems with measuring this kind of study, but I'm curious if anyone has tried tackling it before, and what the results were.
If anyone is interested in doing such a thing, it'd be really interesting to see the numbers as a whole, but also broken up by position and by usage.
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Jon Nichols
Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 370
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| Posted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 2:27 pm Post subject: |
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I did some research a while back on the correlation between various college stats and NBA stats. The article is here:
http://basketball-statistics.com/howdoncaastatisticstranslatetothenba.html
The slope isn't there, but with NBA 3PT% as the y variable and NCAA 3PT% as the x, the slope is 0.7174.
Finding good historical college stats was difficult, so the data set wasn't big enough to be broken down by position and expect accurate results. |
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Joe
Joined: 27 Sep 2009
Posts: 94
Location: Long Island, NY
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| Posted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 2:49 pm Post subject: |
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How many seasons of data did you have?
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Jon Nichols
Joined: 18 Aug 2005
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| Posted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Joe wrote: | | How many seasons of data did you have? |
I don't remember for sure. It went pretty far back (10 or 15 years), but the trouble was finding the college data on Basketball-Reference.com. It was a relatively small sample from a large time frame. |
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Ryan J. Parker
Joined: 23 Mar 2007
Posts: 711
Location: Raleigh, NC
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| Posted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 4:26 pm Post subject: |
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Funny you post this because DSMok1 recently inspired me to acquire some college stats for doing this type of analysis. The first thing I'm interested in is trying to see what sort of relationship exists between usage and 3FG%. Once i do that, I certainly want to see how that translates to the NBA.
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Joe
Joined: 27 Sep 2009
Posts: 94
Location: Long Island, NY
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| Posted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 5:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Ryan J. Parker wrote: | | Funny you post this because DSMok1 recently inspired me to acquire some college stats for doing this type of analysis. The first thing I'm interested in is trying to see what sort of relationship exists between usage and 3FG%. Once i do that, I certainly want to see how that translates to the NBA. |
Very much looking forward to it. Keep us updated.
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:58 pm Post subject: |
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I looked at it a long time ago, among a whole bunch of other NCAA/NBA stats (all per-minute, IIRC).
There was definitely a correlation with 3p%, but a better one with 3PA/min. Neither were as strong as some of the rebounding numbers (for example). |
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Ryan J. Parker
Joined: 23 Mar 2007
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Location: Raleigh, NC
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