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mikez
Joined: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 75
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 Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:48 am Post subject: DeanO Article from Denver Post |
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Nice Denver Post article on DeanO today.
-MZ |
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HoopStudies
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 706
Location: Near Philadelphia, PA
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| Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:55 am Post subject: |
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I told Ben Hochman that I couldn't give away much. So don't go through this looking for clues to how I practice the craft. It has some Basketball on Paper methodologies and that's already public.
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Dean Oliver
Author, Basketball on Paper
The postings are my own & don't necess represent positions, strategies or opinions of employers. |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3612
Location: Hendersonville, NC
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| Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:34 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | As much as Oliver helps executives decide whom they should try to acquire, he helps even more pointing out which players the Nuggets should avoid. "There is not a huge predictive value," Nuggets executive Mark Warkentien said. "There is a huge — bigger than downtown Denver — eliminating value." |
Comments
1) Warkentien possesses uncommon quantification-to-verbalization skill
2) Invert a list ranking "Players to Avoid", and wouldn't you have a list of "Players to Covet"?
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36% of all statistics are wrong |
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mtamada
Joined: 28 Jan 2005
Posts: 377
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| Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: |
1) Warkentien possesses uncommon quantification-to-verbalization skill
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Yeah, that was my big take-away from the article. DeanO we already know about, but Warkentien's quotes were impressive. His background seems to be traditional (college coach, NBA scout), but he seems to have a solid grasp of the value of quantitative analysis and how to use it. |
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HoopStudies
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 706
Location: Near Philadelphia, PA
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| Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:49 pm Post subject: |
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| mtamada wrote: | | Mike G wrote: |
1) Warkentien possesses uncommon quantification-to-verbalization skill
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Yeah, that was my big take-away from the article. DeanO we already know about, but Warkentien's quotes were impressive. His background seems to be traditional (college coach, NBA scout), but he seems to have a solid grasp of the value of quantitative analysis and how to use it. |
Mark is tremendous. A fine boss, a fine GM, a fine person. He challenges me with his requests and I challenge him in some of his beliefs. It's great working with him.
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Dean Oliver
Author, Basketball on Paper
The postings are my own & don't necess represent positions, strategies or opinions of employers. |
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Serhat Ugur (hoopseng)
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
Posts: 209
Location: Basketball Research
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| Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 2:02 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | In his eyes, games are a series of possessions, and the simple way to win this game is to maximize your possessions and minimize your opponent's possessions. |
This is lost in translation part of the author, I think...
Possession should be replaced with the word efficiency?
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 7:22 am Post subject: |
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| HoopStudies wrote: | | Mark is tremendous. A fine boss, a fine GM, a fine person. ... It's great working with him. |
| HoopStudies wrote: | | The postings are my own & don't necess represent positions, strategies or opinions of employers. |
I'm sorry but those two in the same post just made me giggle. I realize one is the signature, and that I'm making a completely fictitious stretch, but I found it humorous nonetheless. |
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Qscience
Joined: 22 Jun 2009
Posts: 70
Location: Phoenix, Arizona
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| Posted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 9:50 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Asked if Lawson, the 18th overall pick, should have gone higher in the draft, Oliver could only smile and say, "I don't care — we got him." |
This is the beauty of Quantitative Analysis - numbers do not listen to whom the media picks as its best player. As a matter of fact I bet Dean also had Ty above Jonny Flynn.
The floor analysis I did on Ty however showed that he is much more suited for an uptempo style. Denver is trending towards defensive personnel and that usually equates to fewer possessions and a slower pace to the game.
The Quantitative Analysis field needs more articles like this ...gj Dean. |
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John Hollinger
Joined: 14 Feb 2005
Posts: 175
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| Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2009 1:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Echoing what Dean said, I've found that among those with the old school "traditional" background, Warkentien grasps analytics concepts as well or better than anyone I've talked to. |
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bchaikin
Joined: 27 Jan 2005
Posts: 689
Location: cleveland, ohio
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schtevie
Joined: 18 Apr 2005
Posts: 413
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| Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2010 8:58 am Post subject: |
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There have been enough of these that would be interesting to do an interpretive retrospective on all of Dean's print interviews, from the perspective of seeing how things have changed over time in this little world we comment on.
Having read several over the years, I am always struck by the question that the interviewer never asks - not that Dean would answer, but still. Given that the purpose of "quantitative analysis" is to discover, quantify, and evaluate competitive opportunities, why does the interviewer never ask (and not just Dean, but any of the several who dabble in the trade) for an estimate of the value of his output to the team: that of advice taken, both positive and negative, and advice ignored.
That this general question is never asked (and those that could answer have zero incentive to volunteer such estimates) contributes to maintaining the basic state of the world we observe, where those who do quantitative analysis for teams - despite the growth in their number over the past decade or so - appear to be distinctly undervalued within the NBA economy. |
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greyberger
Joined: 27 Sep 2010
Posts: 52
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| Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2010 5:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Undervalued? Underheralded? Comparisons with other sports are difficult. NBA teams like to travel light and the economy might be slowing the infiltration process a bit. Hiring a quant consultant is a hard sell when teams are firing scouts and skimping on coach and FO staff. We are a ways away from where teams feel they're missing out on wins or revenue if they're not paying a nerd. |
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jim
Joined: 01 Aug 2009
Posts: 13
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| Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2010 6:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | NBA teams like to travel light and the economy might be slowing the infiltration process a bit. Hiring a quant consultant is a hard sell when teams are firing scouts and skimping on coach and FO staff. |
All this talk about frugality seems funny when teams are still signing a 29 year old Joe Johnson to a 6 year $119 million dollar contract. There are pennies, and then there are benjamins.
| Quote: | | We are a ways away from where teams feel they're missing out on wins or revenue if they're not paying a nerd. |
Well, if teams are missing out on wins or revenue by not hiring some pocket protectors, then they're undervaluing those geekazoids. |
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gabefarkas
Joined: 31 Dec 2004
Posts: 1313
Location: Durham, NC
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| Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2010 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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| schtevie wrote: | | That this general question is never asked (and those that could answer have zero incentive to volunteer such estimates) contributes to maintaining the basic state of the world we observe, where those who do quantitative analysis for teams - despite the growth in their number over the past decade or so - appear to be distinctly undervalued within the NBA economy. |
Typically, an interviewer will come to the table with many more questions prepared than those ending up in the final printed version of the interview. The questions (and subsequent responses) not appearing achieve their status due to one or more of several reasons. Chiefly among these, viz. the lack of incentive to provide an interesting answer, or prior knowledge regarding this. |
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BobboFitos
Joined: 21 Feb 2009
Posts: 201
Location: Cambridge, MA
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| Posted: Mon Oct 18, 2010 10:34 pm Post subject: |
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| greyberger wrote: | | Undervalued? Underheralded? Comparisons with other sports are difficult. NBA teams like to travel light and the economy might be slowing the infiltration process a bit. Hiring a quant consultant is a hard sell when teams are firing scouts and skimping on coach and FO staff. We are a ways away from where teams feel they're missing out on wins or revenue if they're not paying a nerd. |
Eh, teams aren't really saving money by not hiring the 70k/yr quant analyst. The teams that don't have a quant position simply don't realize they cover their costs+more by having one. Unfortunately, (up to this point at least, subject to change) the field hasn't really advanced to the point that all teams feel a quant analyst is necessary to compete. They may be right.
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