APBRmetrics

horsecow · Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Posts: 12 Location: Iowa City, IA

Hi all - first-time poster here. After some people tweeted how it's a shame Steve Nash will probably never win a ring, I decided to write a little entry on how many "rings" Steve Nash would have if we converted his playoff WinShares into championship-equivalent blocks of wins. I did the same for the top 101 players in WinShares. The only reason it wasn't straightforward was that the NBA has changed the length of the playoffs several times over the years, so I had to adjust for that. The results are as you'd expect, with some players from the shorter playoff era moving up and newer players moving down. And Steve Nash? He's accounted for .73 of a championship all by himself, which isn't too bad, and is miles ahead of Adam Morrison.

The full post is at http://jamerchant.wordpress.com/2010/05/28/how-many-titles-has-nash-won/#more-382

Here's the top ten (the full list is at the website -- I won't clog things up here):

Bill Russell || 2.81 championship equivalents
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar || 2.73
Wilt Chamberlain || 2.70
Michael Jordan || 2.65
Jerry West || 2.43
Magic Johnson || 2.26
Shaquille O’Neal || 2.03
Tim Duncan || 1.82
Larry Bird || 1.72
John Havlicek || 1.65

DSMok1

Mike G · Posted: Fri May 28, 2010 5:29 pm Post subject:

Yes, this is a bold try at cross-era comparisons.
This little snippet jumped out at me:

horsecow · Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Posts: 12 Location: Iowa City, IA

That's a good point about the playoffs being a harder slog in the modern era. I guess the rejoinder would be that the league was less diluted in the old days, so you wouldn't have a first round match-up with the Charlotte Hornets to pad your stats.

Mike G · Posted: Sat May 29, 2010 11:20 am Post subject:

That is a fairly common misconception. When 6 of 8/9 teams get into the playoffs, there are more mediocre teams in the playoffs. Several years there were only 3 teams above .500 .

The Celtics' first title was gained by beating 38-34 Syracuse, then 34-38 St Louis. They won against totally average competition.

Next year, StL advanced to the Finals by beating 33-39 Cincinnati.

To win the first of their 8-straight (1959-66), the Celts had to overcome .486 Syr and the .458 Lakers.

The worst Charlotte Hornets team to make the playoffs was 44-38 (.537). This record would have led the Western Division a couple times in Pettit's day.

One or two additional rounds, even against the occasional sub-.500 team, cannot make it easier to win a title. It's another 2 chances to be upset. (Ask Dirk.)
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